Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2024

I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.

  Tua. Achane. Tie game.#BUFvsMIA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BspX8Yhq4A

  — NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2024

  Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.
  
  
• Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.
  
  DK Metcalf is still the #1 WR option, of course, with even higher rates in snaps (88.06% and 87.14%) and routes (92.86% and 95.83%) with a little more consistent targets (16.00% and 32.56%) to produce 5.9 and 28.9 points. Interestingly enough, Tyler Lockett went from a 28.00% target share while only playing 53.73% of the snaps and 71.43% of the routes in Week 1 to a 4.65% target share this time despite an increased workload to 81.43% and 87.50%.
  
  The last note from Seattle is for Zach Charbonnet after he became the bellcow RB with Walker out. He was in on 95.71% of the snaps and 77.08% of the routes while seeing 100% of the teams 14 RB carries and earning a 11.63% target share a week after a 12.00% as the backup. He wasn't able to be efficient with just 38 yards on those 14 carries, but the team trusting him with this role is a good sign.
  
  
• The Falcons also have a new offense in place with head coach Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson coming from the Rams, and you can definitely see the influence here. Known for the three-receiver formations, Drake London has snap rates of 100.00% and 96.72% in each game, Darnell Mooney's are 94.64% and 100.00%, and then Ray-Ray McCloud jumped from 53.57% (67.86% route participation) to 100.00%. It's been a pretty narrow target tree, as well, with target shares of 19.23%, 19.23%, and 23.08% for those three. London's 24.14% this past game is more of what I'd expect from the former #8 pick, especially after he came through with the game winner.

  DRAKE JUST DID THAT
  
  ESPN | NFL+ pic.twitter.com/k7BjeVEFdt

  — Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) September 17, 2024

  That has put Kyle Pitts in an interesting spot at TE as he went from being in on 96.43% and 100% of the snaps and routes in the opener to 73.77% and 74.19%, although 3 and 4 targets resulted in similar 13.04% and 13.79% shares. McCloud getting more run had a direct effect on Pitts since the latter went from 24 snaps in the slot to just 9 in Week 2. Somewhere in the middle might be where he ends up.
  
  
• In that same MNF game with Atlanta, DeVonta Smith continued to roll for Philadelphia. He has now played 100% of the Eagles' 148 snaps and seen 18 looks for a 31.03% target share with 15.4 and 20.6 points as a result. AJ Brown sitting out with a hamstring injury helped with that this week, but I'm not sure how much of a difference that made since Smith is now playing the coveted slot role in new OC Kellen Moore's offense. He's lined up there on 65 snaps so far for a 43.92% rate after he was only in the slot 24.82% of the time last year. That should help Smith continue to earn good looks in this offense.