Friday, September 13, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2024

The NFL season officially started last week, and so did my football posts after a busy NBA offseason. That was more of a long-term outlook for this year's rookie WR class, and now I'm getting back into my week to week usage notes. These will be check ins about how players are being used; their statistical production, typically with points-per reception (PPR) fantasy points; and how sustainable all of that might be. Fantasy data and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • The Ravens number two tight end, Isaiah Likely, kicking off the season with 9 catches, 111 yards, a touchdown, and almost a last-second game-winner on Thursday was the biggest news of the week. The 24 year old had flashed in his first two years whenever All-Pro Mark Andrews was out, but this coming with them playing together means that Likely could have standalone value. With Baltimore's lack of proven wide receiver depth, there was speculation that he could get a good amount of action with more two-TE sets, and that looks like it will be the case.

    On that note, let's not panic about Andrews despite only getting 2 targets, catching both for 14 yards. He still played 73.75% of the snaps and ran a route on 74.51% of Lamar Jackson's drop backs, which is comparable to the 76.54% and 84.59% in his full games last year. And let's remember his history against Steve Spagnuolo's double teams (see below) and that he's still getting into shape after missing a chunk of training camp after a car accident last month.

    This is more about Likely also being a weapon alongside Andrews. Thursday's star was in on 66.25% of the snaps and 68.63% of the routes while seeing 12 targets for a massive 30% target share. The last part won't stay that high, but first two have room for even more growth. With that amount of playing time and his talent, Likely could easily be the #3 target in this offense along with Andrews and Zay Flowers.

  • The following night, Jayden Reed going for 4 catches, 171 totals yards and two TDs was the biggest takeaway for me, even if the 70 yard TD came from a broken play. How the Packers would utilize all of their weapons was one of the biggest questions of draft season, and we got a lot of answers across the position groups. At WR, Reed is the guy you want, even if he is mostly limited to the slot in three-receiver sets. He scored 33.1 fantasy points despite his 71.64% snap rate, 73.68% route participation, and 18.75% target share all ranking second among their WRs behind Romeo Doubs (86.57%, 89.47%, and 21.88% for 9 points), and the carry that he scored on continued a trend from last year with his versatility.
    While Doubs continued his steady role at one outside position, Christian Watson was more carefully used given his injury history. The touchdown machine still found a way into the end zone with a 15.63% target share for 10.3 points even though he was only third at the position with a 62.69% snap rate and tied for second with a 73.68% route participation. That left Dontayvion Wicks, who was very efficient when given opportunity as a rookie, as a backup with just 46.27% of the snaps, 42.11% of the routes, and a 9.38% target share with no catches.

    More interestingly, last year's 3rd round pick at TE, Tucker Kraft, played clearly ahead of their 2nd round pick, Luke Musgrave. Musgrave was the starter last year with Kraft rotating in, but when the former missed the back end of the season on Injured Reserve, the latter performed better in the featured role. Kraft missed a lot of the offseason after surgery for a torn pec, but that didn't stop him from picking up where he left off by playing an astounding 95.52% of the snaps and running a route on 78.95% of the drop backs. He only earned a 9.38% target share, but that was still better than Musgrave's 6.25% while only being in on 25.37% and 21.05% of the snaps and routes.

    At running back, everyone knows Matt LeFleur has a preference for a committee approach, and they drafted MarShawn Lloyd on Day 2 for a reason. He's unfortunately banged up and missed the game, but Josh Jacobs' usage was still notable. The 73.13% snap rate was strong enough along with 80% of the running back carries (16 of the 20), but he only ran a route on 52.63% of the drop backs with a 9.38% target share en route to 12.4 points. Even with Lloyd out, LeFleur made sure to get a rotation in there with Emanuel Wilson in on 23.88% of the snaps and 26.32% of the routes to get the same 9.38% target share along with 20% of the RB carries. This will be something to watch once the rookie is active.

  • The Texans might have the best WR trio in the league, and based on the first week deployment, all could have good seasons. Even when accounting for only healthy games, Nico Collins surprisingly was in on only 71.03% of the snaps and 75.14% of the routes with a 22.55% target share during his breakout  of 17.2 points last season, so it was great to see those numbers at 79.75%, 84.21%, and 25.81% in the season opener with 17.7 points.

    Trade acquisition Stefon Diggs found the end zone twice to score 21.9 points in his debut for Houston, and it looks like he will be their slot receiver after lining up there on 33 of his 61 (54.1%) snaps. That snap total was good for a 77.22% rate while his 89.47% route participation resulted in a 19.35% target share, albeit with just a 1.7 aDOT due in part to the slot work. Compare that to the 16.3 aDOT for Collins (7.94% slot rate) or 16.6 for Tank Dell (28%). Dell only turned his 22.58% target share into8.9 points but was close to connecting for a deep ball that got broken up. Although he was technically the #3 WR with only a 63.29% snap rate, his route participation was still 86.84%. They probably just don't want him having to block on running plays after breaking his leg in that type of situation last year.

  • One last WR room to talk about is the Rams' after everyone watched Puka Nacua re-aggravate his knee injury on Sunday Night Football to land on IR for at least four weeks. Cooper Kupp ended up being in on all 78 snaps and 51 drop backs and saw a ridiculous 21 targets for a 43.75% share and 32 points, but he can't carry this offense by himself. Demarcus Robinson, whom I talked up late last year, resumed his starter role in L.A.'s three-receiver base offense with a 92.31% snap rate, 92.16% route participation, and 14.58% target share for a modest 8.2 points, and he should be a reliable target going forward.

    Tyler Johnson figures to see the biggest spike in opportunity after playing in Nacua's role in the second half. He broke a big play after the catch to finish with 12.9 points on 65.38%, 64.71%, and 14.58% rates. I was extremely high on him as a 5th round steal in the 2020 draft before he flamed out in Tampa Bay, but hopefully this opportunity will be what gets his career on track only a couple of weeks after turning 26.
    New TE Colby Parkinson could also be someone who steps up after the Rams gave him a nice three-year, $22.5 million contract to replace the injured Tyler Higbee. His 88.46% snap rate and route participation of 82.35% in the opener means he should get plenty of chances, even if he only turned it into a 10.42% target share. That was still good enough in this offense for 4 catches and 47 yards, and considering the week that the TE position had, 8.7 points to start isn't bad.

  • Lastly, I have to talk about how Jordan Mason closed out the week on Monday Night Football, especially in light of today's news that Christian McCaffrey will be out again in Week 2 and could even spend time on IR. Mason was a workhorse in his place, playing 80.56% of the snaps, running a route on 66.67% of the drop backs, and getting all 28 RB carries. The only quibble would be just 1 look through the air for a 3.45% target share, but he did catch it en route to 152 total yards and a score against a tough defense.

    That came with Deebo Samuel vulturing a short TD (after he got called for a tough holding call that took away what would've been another Mason TD, no less) and receiving 8 carries overall in addition to seeing a 31.03% target share. He'll likely continue to get used in a variety of ways to help make up for McCaffrey's absence, and needing some breathers with this workload resulted in 73.61% of the snaps despite a route participation of 81.82%. The 49ers likely don't want to tax him too much now that they know it won't just be a one-game deal, though, so it will likely be the Mason show on the ground for the most part.

    4th round rookie Isaac Guerendo figures to be who spells him once he gets his bearings more, but Mason is more talented than you might think as a former undrafted player. As only a sophomore on a terrible Georgia Tech team that went 3-9, he managed to have 942 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs when the next closest teammate only had 398 yards. Injuries and the arrival of top recruit Jahmyr Gibbs slowed him down after that, but San Francisco knows to find these diamonds in the rough who can produce like Matt Breida and Elijah Mitchell.
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