Saturday, November 8, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-9 in 2025

The NFL regular season is now halfway over, so how teams are utilizing their players is pretty established by this point. Still, there are always some notable changes with players' opportunities, whether by a lineup change, a teammate's injury, or in one case here, a return from suspension. That's what's covered here, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After being suspended the first six games of the season, Rashee Rice has immediately made a huge impact. Despite only being in on 40.74% of the snaps and 47.50% of the drop backs in a blowout win his first game, he wasn't exactly eased in with a 29.41% target share leading to two touchdowns and 23.2 PPR points.

    Over the next two games, Rice was back to a full-time player with snap rates of 85.51% and 81.67% and route participation rates of 82.93% and 79.49%. His target shares have technically gone down to 28.13% and 24.14%, but those are of course still strong numbers leading to 27.37% overall. He's even getting some carries near the goal line for more scoring opportunities to go along with his coveted slot role (about 40% of snaps) that leads to so many layup looks, so his 22.43 points per game so far looks sustainable.
  • Things finally normalized this past game, but Ja'Marr Chase has been seeing absurd volume since Joe Flacco joined the Bengals. Overall through four games together, last year's receiving Triple Crown winner has a 38.04% target share while playing 98.88% of the snaps and running a route on 98.90% of the drop backs for 25.35 points per game. Before "only" having 8 targets last game (17.78%), that was a 45.76% target share, and with Flacco letting it fly so often (43.25 attempts per game), it translated to 18 targets per game.

    This stretch has brought Chase's overall season averages to 20.86 points, a 94.95% snap rate, 96.69% route participation, and a 33.75% target share (resulting in 11.89 looks). For comparison, in last year's historic season, those numbers were 23.71, 92.69%, 97.79%, and 27.87% (10.29), so he's still managed to get by with sheer volume to offset losing Joe Burrow's efficiency.


  • Like his 2021 draft classmate, Jaylen Waddle has also stepped up his production after a change in the lineup. In the five games since Tyreek Hill's terrible injury in Week 4, Waddle has averaged 15.28 points, a 80.66% snap rate, a 81.18% route participation rate, and a 22.78% target share, but even that belies how good he's been.

    If you take out the Week 7 blowout loss that had game-changing winds in Cleveland, Waddle's numbers go up to 18.48, 81.78%, 83.78%, and 25.00% in the other four games. Those are WR1 numbers, so it is likely a good thing that he didn't end up being traded to a different situation despite there being reported interest from other teams.


  • Demario "Pop" Douglas is another wide receiver who has been on a little bit of a heater the last four weeks with multiple big plays contributing to 11.6 points per game after just 3.3 in the first five games. Unfortunately, his role hasn't actually changed much during this span as he's still only been in on 23.11% of the snaps as almost exclusively a slot player and even only 33.33% of the drop backs. Maybe this recent run and Kayshon Boutte being injured will change that, but it was rookie Kyle Williams who stepped into that outside role after Boutte went down.


  • At running back, Rico Dowdle finally was given the reins again for the Panthers last week after coach Dave Canales admitted during the lead up that they couldn't ignore the difference between him and incumbent starter Chuba Hubbard anymore. Back in Weeks 5 and 6 when Hubbard was out with a calf injury, Dowdle had 234 and 239 yards from scrimmage as a true workhorse playing 77.21% of the snaps, running a route on 61.29% of the drop backs, getting 86.89% of the RB carries, and seeing an 18.75% target share en route to 32.4 and 33.9 points.

    Those two performances came against two of the best matchups for RBs in the Dolphins and Cowboys, but Dowdle has been markedly more effective on the season with 5.6 yards per carry, a 54.2% success rate, and 1.16 yards per route run. That's what made it a frustrating committee the next two weeks with the slight majority of the work going to Hubbard, who is at 48.8%, 3.6, and 0.89 in those same metrics. That led to this past week when Dowdle put up 28.1 points with 72.41% of the snaps, a 50% route participation, 83.33% of the RB carries, and a 15.79% targets, and it came against a tough Packers defense.


  • In that game, Tucker Kraft unfortunately tore his ACL to brutally end what was an awesome season. The third-year TE finishes with 14.65 points per game with a 86.11% snap rate, a 75.27% route participation rate, and a 18.80% target share, and if you take out this game when he got hurt at the beginning of the third quarter, those go up to 16.17, 91.48%, 79.92%, and 20.60%.

    The Mac & Cheesehead man, as I like to call him, also tweaked his knee back in Week 3, and although he didn't miss any time, his effectiveness did seem limited. He was still listed as a limited participant in Week 4 practices before he was back to a full participant after the Week 5 bye, so we're really looking at five fully healthy games: Weeks 1, 2, 6, 7, and 8. This is cherrypicking a bit, but Kraft averaged 19.34 points, a 91.58% snap rate, 80.75% route participation, and 23.19% target share in that sample. He'll be a big loss for both the Packers and fantasy managers.


  • On the bright side, Oronde Gadsden II is looking like he could end up being the league-winning TE. He was inactive his first two games before veteran Will Dissly got hurt to open up some playing time, but the rookie was eased in during those first three weeks with just 40.74% of the snaps, a route on only 44.93% of the drop backs, and a 9.48% target share for 5.20 points per game. 

    The snaps and routes were going up each and every week, though, and then a funny thing happened: Dissly returned in Week 6 and yet Gadsden still saw a bump up all the way up to 75% and 76.92%, resulting in a 21.05% target share and 11.8 points. Then in Week 7 he went off with 7 catches, 164 yards, and a touchdown, and the breakout was fully on as he joined Rob Gronkowski as the only TE to have 150+ yards and a TD before turning 23. In total since that Week 6 game when he basically became a full-time player, Gadsden is averaging 17.93 points with a 77.62% snap rate, a 82.08% route participation rate, and an 18.75% target share. That brings his overall season numbers to 12.47, 61.46%, 65.59%, 14.62%, and I only wish that I was even more aggressive with him in my rookie TEs rankings than just two spots above his draft capital.
  • One last TE that I want to shoutout is Theo Johnson, who has quietly been pretty productive since Week 4. That is of course when star rookie Jaxson Dart took over at QB and also when Malik Nabers unfortunately tore his ACL in the first half. Starting with that game, Johnson is averaging 11.50 points with 84.90%, 80.56%, and 19.19% market shares, which is typically top-12 TE production. Scoring 5 TDs in these 6 games, including a fluky deflected one against the Broncos, has definitely been at the root of this scoring more than just the 31.7 yards per game, but that is some strong underlying usage. An impressive athlete at 6'6", 259 lbs, this is kind of your prototypical second-year breakout TE.
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