The NFL is back! I started writing this annual post at the beginning of the summer but got sidetracked by writing about the NBA, trips, and other responsibilities, but I wanted to make sure to get it done before any of these rookie wide receivers play. It's a much deeper position than the running backs, but I'm not sure quite how much star power it will end up with.
As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides, and the statistical marks that he looks at. I also make note of players' physical traits more than he does, but athleticism tends to matter less at this position than for running backs or tight ends.
Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA) and yards per route run (YPRR) are the key production markers to keep in mind since they help tell a better story of a player's stats than raw numbers due to the huge differences in offensive styles from school to school. I'm also looking at how old they were when they became contributors and the percentage of their team's receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in games they participated in. On the athletic testing side, 40 yard dash, the subsequent height-adjusted speed score (HaSS), vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone time, and the short shuttle are all under consideration for WRs. I'm more focused on getting an idea of how athletic these prospects may or may not be than whether they hit certain thresholds, though.
Once again, all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic, and the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.
1. Jordyn Tyson - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Saints
Tyson was one of the more divisive figures of the 1st round with the perception of how high he'd go varying to a large degree during draft, but I'm a big fan. He didn't have as many college stops as his older brother Jaylon, who was an NBA 1st rounder two years ago, but Jordyn started first his career at Colorado, where he led a 1-11 team in receiving yards and touchdowns as a true freshman. He did that despite missing the final three games with a torn ACL, MCL, and PCL, and his pro-rated market shares of 27.57% and 50%, respectively, are excellent for an 18 year old, and he had a strong 2.79 YPRR.
Following the coaching change to Deion Sanders and reportedly not feeling wanted, Tyson was part of the massive roster overhaul and transferred to Arizona State, where he missed all but a handful of snaps in 2023 as his knee recovered. He came back stronger than ever as a redshirt sophomore to put up 75 catches for 1,101 yards, and 10 touchdowns in only 12 games, resulting in outstanding marks of 3.48 YPTPA, 3.04 YPRR, a 38.27% reception share, 40.81% yardage share, and 45.45% TD share.
Nagging hamstring strains to both legs limited Tyson this past season to drop those figures to 2.19, 2.37, 37.58%, 34.50%, and 72.73%, but those are all still better than a lot of his peers. His early breakout, best-season market shares, and even a career 2.71 YPRR combine for an elite production profile, and he was only 21.69 years old on draft day.
Although Tyson wasn't healthy enough to participate in testing at the combine or a pro day, he was able to put on a private workout for teams before the draft to show his recovery from the hamstrings. He did join the measurements portion of the combine to confirm his 6'2.125" and 203 pound frame that allows him to play either outside or in the slot, and he makes the most out of that catch radius with good hands. Because he can get open with craft in addition to winning at the catch point with acrobatic grabs, Brugler even gave a Stefon Diggs comp.
Tyson was selected much higher in the draft than Diggs with the scary injury history not enough to prevent him from going in the top-10, and New Orleans is a really nice landing spot. Kellen Moore is a great offensive mind whose teams always tend to run a lot of plays thanks to a fast pace, and Tyler Shough improved at a nice rate as the second half of the season went on. The rookie will unfortunately start the season on IR with more hamstring issues, but whenever he makes his debut, he has a wide open opportunity to immediately become the #2 WR next to Chris Olave. While the Saints like Devaugn Vele (after surprisingly trading a 4th and 7th for him) and fellow rookie Bryce Lance also brings upside to the WR room, Tyson has the talent and runway to make an early impact just like he did in college.
2. Carnell Tate - 1st round, 4th overall, 1st WR drafted - Titans
While I think that Tyson will have the biggest impact on a per game basis, you can definitely make the case that Tate will have the best season-long stats as a rookie. Although it was a surprise just how high he went in the NFL draft, he was generally accepted to be the first WR selected thanks to having a pretty safe overall profile. As a sophomore, Tate was a contributor to Ohio State's 2024 national championship team playing alongside 1st rounder Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, a likely top-5 pick in next year's draft, and then he truly broke out as a 20 year old junior.
Tate's overall totals don't jump off the page due to missing three games, but in the contests that he played his 2.74 YPTPA, 3.03 YPRR, 28.61% yardage share, and 31.03% touchdown share were all strong marks. He can get a bit of a pass on the 20.73% reception share due to working more down the field with 17.2 yard per catch and playing next to a generational prospect like Smith. For Tate's three-year career, he averaged 2.27 YPRR, which is more than acceptable, especially for an early declare prospect.
Already holding high draft stock, Tate didn't do a full workout at the combine but showed that he has the prototypical physical tools of an outside receiver by running a solid 4.53 40 yard dash at 6'2.25" and 192 pounds. His 6'6" wingspan also doesn't hurt with the 50/50 balls that he comes away with down the field. Joining a Titans team that signed the 5'8" Wan'Dale Robinson to be the top target competition, the rookie is expected to have a prominent role. 31 year old Calvin Ridley is coming off of a broken leg, and while Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike showed some nice flashes as rookies, Tate earned way higher draft capital for a reason. The main question is how much of a leap will last year's #1 overall pick Cam Ward make with a new coaching staff.
3. Makai Lemon - 1st round, 20th overall, 3rd WR drafted - Eagles (traded up)
Lemon is an interesting case after he was expected to go in the top half of the 1st round before the Eagles eventually moved up to stop his fall. He had a 2.05 YPRR in a very limited role as a freshman before posting an elite 3.03 rate as a sophomore despite an uneven offense. Lemon only averaged 1.75 YPTPA that year with 23.85% of the team's receiving yards his only notable market share number. Things came together in a big way this past year, though, as he posted a 2.96 YPTPA, 3.13 YPRR, a 30.15% reception share, 32.4% yardage share, and 44% TD share.
Having a birthday in June of 2004, Lemon is on the older side for his year (he's actually older than Tyson despite being a grade below him) to make that a 21 year old breakout as a junior, but those are still elite numbers, as is his 3.02 career YPRR. At 5'11.125", 192 pounds and wearing a single digit number at USC, it's easy to make a a comparison to Amon-Ra St. Brown (5'11.5" and 197 pounds at his combine) like Daniel Jeremiah did. Lemon's 4.50 40 at his pro day isn't going to blow anyone away but is adequate enough, especially for the type of receiver he is with his quickness and versatility to work out of the slot.
Landing in Philadelphia should provide a nice opportunity immediately with the departure of AJ Brown. Lemon missed a good amount of the offseason with hamstring issues, so he might start the season as the #3 receiver but could easily finish as the #2 behind DeVonta Smith by the end of the season. Trade acquisition Dontayvion Wicks has been productive in a limited role, so we'll see if provides tough competition throughout the season. They made the move up to draft Lemon for a reason, though, and his type of talent should show itself sooner rather than later.
4. Kevin "KC" Concepcion - 1st round, 24th overall, 4th WR drafted - Browns
5. Denzel Boston - 2nd round, 39th overall, 7th WR drafted - Browns
Although Concepcion is more in a tier above with Lemon, I'll group these two together since they somewhat surprisingly were taken by the same team so early. Having a late September birthday, Concepcion has a breakout age of 18.94 as he was awesome right away in his true freshman year. Playing on a 9-4 NC State team, he was by far their best weapon with 2.21 YPTPA, 2.32 YPRR, a 31.70% reception share, 33.28% yardage share, and 52.63% TD share, and he even added 320 rushing yards on 41 attempts.
Concepcion and the team regressed the following season, leading to him transferring to Texas A&M as a junior, and he returned to form with 2.25 YPTPA, 2.46 YPRR, and market shares of 24.60%, 27.21%, and 34.62% while also averaging 18.2 yards on punt returns with two scores there. Like those numbers, his 2.03 career YPRR is more solid than great, so it's really the age-adjusted production that is the calling card here. He didn't provide any testing numbers but measured a little bigger than I expected at 5'11.625" and 196 pounds given his skillset as a versatile weapon who can work outside, in the slot, on runs, and in the return game.
Boston has a different kind of profile. He had to wait his turn at Washington behind future NFL draft picks Rome Odunze (1st round), Jalen McMillan (3rd), Ja'lynn Polk (2nd), and Germie Bernard (2nd) before breaking out as a 20 year old junior. Boston averaged 2.00 YPTPA and 1.86 YPRR with 20.86% of the team's catches, 24.51% of the receiving yards, and 40.91% of the receiving scores that year before really excelling this past year with 2.75 YPTA, 2.44 YPRR, and market shares of 28.31%, 33%, and 50% in his 11 healthy games. His career 2.02 YPRR is right behind Concepcion's, and though Boston didn't add rushing production, he did contribute some on punt returns, including an additional touchdown there.
I wouldn't expect further special teams work for Boston, however, given his 6'3.625", 212 pound frame. He didn't do every aspect of testing, namely a 40 time, but his 35" vertical and 4.28 short shuttle at the combine and 6.8 3-cone time at his pro day were all impressive. Overall, he brings physical attributes that none of the other Browns receivers have, which should give him ample playing time as a rookie.
The main concern with both of these rookies is the situation in Cleveland. There will be some target competition from proven veteran Jerry Jeudy and tight end Harold Fannin, who had an awesome rookie season, but the main issue is the quarterback play. Deshaun Watson will be start the year behind center and has been a shell of his early career self, and even if they the team eventually turns to Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel later in the year, neither were anywhere close to good as rookies. Perhaps the change in coaching staff can help, with Concepcion acting as Todd Monken's new Zay Flowers particularly enticing, but it might not be until next year that these rookies' true potential will be seen.
6. De'Zhaun Stribling - 2nd round, 33rd overall, 6th WR drafted - 49ers
This initially felt like a Jonathan Mingo situation with an Ole Miss prospect who is more freak athlete than receiver inexplicably gaining steam late in the process to get picked early in the 2nd round. However, once I got past the initial shock of San Francisco making yet another reach on a skill position player ahead of expected draft position (see my rant in Kaelon Black section of this year's RB post), Stribling's profile showed more encouraging signs. He had a long and winding college career leading to him being a 23 year old rookie with a late breakout, but he was at least a contributor from the very start.
Stribling was the #3 receiver as a true freshman at Washington State before becoming the top option as a 19 year old who fell just short of that technically being his breakout age. After transferring to Oklahoma State for his junior year, he only played in four games before a wrist injury ended his season and was productive in them with 1.68 YPRR a 22.32% yardage share and 20% touchdown share. Those improved to 2.44, 28.03%, and 28.57% the next year along with 1.96 YPTPA and 19.48% of the team's receptions, and then he transferred once more to Ole Miss for his fifth and final collegiate campaign.
It took Stribling a handful of games to get acclimated to another new environment that also had a quarterback change early on in the season, which led to overall numbers of just 1.55 YPTPA and market shares of 16.18%, 17.26%, and 23.08% with a 2.15 YPRR the only notable mark. If you want to give him some grace and focus on just his final 10 games, those numbers go up to 1.82 YPTPA, 2.50 YPRR, a 18.26% reception share, 21.54% yardage share, and 29.41% TD share. Those go up even further over the final five games, with Stribling particularly impressing during the Rebels' college football playoff run to the semifinals.
Part of the reason that Stribling was a late riser up draft boards was an elite combine showing after measuring 6'2.125", 207 pounds and running a blistering 4.36 40 with a 36" vertical and 10'7" broad jump. That's a HaSS of 116.33, and his 4.36 short shuttle and 6.99 3-cone at his pro day were also high-end marks. The athleticism especially shows on the field when he broke away from defenders on the type of in-breaking routes that are a staple in the Shanahan offensive system, and Stribling also earns high praise for his blocking as arguably the best in the class in that regard. While the latter doesn't translate to the stat sheet, all of this is to say that it's easy to see how a coaching staff could get enamored enough for the front office to take him earlier than expected.
The blocking aspect should also help get the rookie onto the field early, and Ricky Pearsall unfortunately needing season-ending surgery opens up more opportunity. Deebo Samuel was brought back into the fold after that injury news, but both he and big free agent signee Mike Evans are on the wrong side of 30 and tend to get banged up themselves. There is some other competition for playing time, including another former Ole Miss WR that the 49ers drafted last year, Jordan Watkins, but they don't have the same level of investment. After a strong preseason that showed Stribling's tough hands in contested targets, it's easy to see him becoming a more explosive version of the departed Jauan Jennings as a feisty blocker who moves around the formation and wins in tight situations, and he was even wearing the same #15 before switching to #7 after final roster cuts. If the rookie can reach the highs that Jennings had on a more consistent basis, he will have been worth the high draft pick.
7. Omar Cooper - 1st round, 30th overall, 5th WR drafted - Jets (traded up)
If this was written closer to the draft as originally intended, Cooper would have been higher, maybe even ahead of Boston atop this tier. The somewhat surprising 1st rounder flashed early in his career with a 2.14 YPRR in only a small role as a redshirt freshman before getting more playing the following season and still improving to 2.52. He had only 1.65 YPTA that year, though, and the only somewhat notable market share was 21.21% of the team's receiving touchdowns as he wasn't quite able to hit the breakout threshold.
That changed this past year as a 21 year old redshirt junior with 2.45 YPTPA, 2.55 YPRR, a 24.91% reception share, a 26% yardage share, and a 28.89% TD share. Cooper finished college with a strong 2.47 career YPRR that is among the highest in the class, and he chipped in a couple of rushing scores to show a little usage versatility. After playing on the outside for 426 of his 466 snaps in 2024, he excelled in the slot last year with 591 of his 764 snaps coming there, and with a somewhat of a compact build at 6'0.125" and 196 pounds, that's likely where he'll play a lot in the NFL.
Cooper's 4.42 40 time at the combine was good for a 101.48 HaSS, and his burst was also on display with a 37" vertical. He showed that juice with his 14 total touchdowns last year after 8 the previous season, so there's upside if he can get on the field consistently. The problem is that after reportedly not having a very good training camp, the rookie is battling just to be the #3 receiver. Garrett Wilson has always been a target hog, the team liked what they saw from Adonai Mitchell after trading for him, and with fellow rookie Kenyon Sadiq drafted even higher in the 1st round at tight end, there is plenty of competition ahead of Cooper. With the Jets coming off of an absolutely dreadful season that included being last in the league in passing yards, it's hard to get too excited about his situation, at least for now.
8. Chris Bell - 3rd round, 94th overall, 17th WR drafted - Dolphins
Caleb Douglas was drafted higher by the same team and receiving more offseason buzz, but that's because Bell tore his ACL in November. The Louisville product likely would've been selected much higher otherwise, and it's incredible that he was already activated in August let alone ready to play a preseason game. He was the second-leading receiver as a junior with decent numbers, but it was as a 21 year old senior that the breakout really came.
In the 11 games that Bell was able to play in, he averaged 2.46 YPTPA and 2.55 YPRR while accounting for 30% of the team's catches, 36.20% of the receiving yards, and 46.15% of the receiving touchdowns. Not only were those great numbers across the board, but that campaign even brought his career YPRR up to 2.01. There obviously aren't testing numbers for him after the injury, but measuring 6'1.875" and 222 pounds with those kind of numbers could result in alpha WR upside. Bell only played a little bit in the slot compared to what AJ Brown (6'0.5", 226 pounds) did in college, but an optimistic would say that is the comparison with the rookie's 6'4.75" wingspan similarly playing even bigger than he is.
Miami has by far the least experienced wide receiver room in the league, so Bell has plenty of runway to make an immediate impact. While I liked Malik Washington as a late round prospect two years ago, he has hardly done much thus far in the NFL and is likely best served as a role player at just 5'8.5" and 191 pounds. Fellow rookie Douglas is an impressive physical specimen with a 4.39 40 and 10'6" broad jump at 6'3.5" and 206 pounds, but it was borderline shocking that he was the picked in the 3rd round, 75th overall, given how lacking his production profile was. The Dolphins took yet another receiver in the 5th round, Kevin Coleman, who had more impressive collegiate numbers than Douglas but played almost exclusively in the slot at 5'10.125" and only 179 pounds. I think that new quarterback Malik Willis could have a sneakily effective season along with tight end Greg Dulcich, and if any of the wide receivers steps forward, it will be Bell.
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