NFL 2020 Week 17 Picks

There is a reason that the vast majority of fantasy football leagues don't include Week 17: things get weird. It's right up there with the first couple weeks of the season as the hardest to predict because you don't know for sure who is actually going to play or for how long, and that is especially true this year with a spike in COVID-19 cases after Christmas. Some of the actual spreads in Las Vegas have changed by quite a bit due to some news, but the lines in the CBS Pick 'Em Pool are still the same. Keeping those factors in mind, here goes nothing:

Home Favorites

Bills -3.5 versus Dolphins

1/3 UPDATE: Early morning reports indicate that Buffalo won't play their starters for much of the game, so I'm switching this pick to Dolphins +3.5.

Browns -7.5 versus Steelers

Patriots -3.5 versus Jets

Colts -14.5 versus Jaguars

Road Underdogs

Falcons +6.5 at Buccaneers

Cardinals +1.5 at Rams

Home Underdogs

Bengals +11.5 versus Ravens

Texans +7.5 versus Titans

Broncos +2.5 versus Raiders

Road Favorites

Vikings -6.5 at Lions

Cowboys -2.5 at Giants

Saints -6.5 at Panthers

Packers -5.5 at Bears

Chargers -3.5 at Chiefs

Seahawks -4.5 at 49ers

Washington -1.5 at Eagles

Last week: 7-9

Season total: 124-116

NFL 2020 Week 16 Picks

Merry Christmas! I'll keep the intro light this week after my 8-8 in Week 15 was my worst showing since my run started in Week 12, and I wasn't tilting at all by Green Bay, Indianapolis, Seattle, and Kansas City all blowing two touchdown leads to not cover by half a point each. Nope, didn't bother me at all...

Home Favorites

Saints -7.5 versus Vikings

Cardinals -4.5 versus 49ers

Chargers -3.5 versus Broncos

Washington -2.5 versus Panthers

Subject to change if Alex Smith ends up ruled out.

Packers -3.5 versus Titans

Road Underdogs

Giants +10.5 at Ravens

Bengals +9.5 at Texans

12/26 UPDATE: After considering the state of Houston's defense again, I decided to take the points after all.

Falcons +10.5 at Chiefs

Rams +2.5 at Seahawks

Home Underdogs

Steelers +1.5 versus Colts

Patriots +7.5 versus Bills

Road Favorites

Buccaneers -8.5 at Lions

Dolphins -2.5 at Raiders

Browns -9.5 at Jets

Bears -7.5 at Jaguars

Eagles -1.5 at Cowboys

Last week 8-8

Season total: 117-107

NFL 2020 Week 15 Picks

I seem to have my groove back after following my 12 win week with back to back to 10's. This is a tricky slate with a lot of road favorites, but I am off to a good start after Justin Herbert picked apart the Raiders' still non-existent defense (no thanks to Anthony Lynn limiting him to just 12 attempts in the second half and overtime). Hopefully that's a good omen for the rest of the road teams I"m picking.

Road Underdogs

Chargers +3.5 at Raiders

Patriots +2.5 at Dolphins

Bears +3.5 at Vikings

Eagles +6.5 at Cardinals

12/19 UPDATE: Philly officially ruling out both starting corners has me switching this to Cardinals -6.5 versus Eagles

Home Favorites

Packers -8.5 versus Panthers

Titans -8.5 versus Lions

Colts -7.5 versus Texans

Rams -17.5 versus Jets

Ravens -13.5 versus Jaguars

Home Underdogs

Cowboys +2.5 versus 49ers

Road Favorites

Bills -6.5 at Broncos

Buccaneers -5.5 at Falcons

Seahawks -5.5 at Washington

Chiefs -3.5 at Saints

Browns -3.5 at Giants

Steelers -12.5 at Bengals

Last week: 10-6

Season total: 110-99

NFL 2020 Week 14 Picks

The prime time games have not been kind to me recently, but overall it was another strong week to get me back into contention for my picks pool. Home teams continued to struggle, and now this week has a lot of road teams favored to make things interesting. Although I'm not quite as confident as last week, this should be a fun slate that also is the start of the fantasy playoffs.

Road Underdogs

Patriots +5.5 at Rams

Well, I was right about Jared Goff not playing especially well against Bill Belichick's defense again. The problem was that it didn't matter since Cam Newton had no chance against LA's elite defense and one of my favorite running back prospects, Cam Akers, has taken the reigns on the running back job.

Steelers +2.5 at Bills

Home Favorites

Buccaneers -6.5 versus Vikings

Panthers -3.5 versus Broncos

Seahawks -13.5 versus Jets

49ers -3.5 versus Washington

Home Underdogs

Bears +1.5 versus Texans

Dolphins +7.5 versus Chiefs

Giants +2.5 versus Cardinals

Lions +7.5 versus Packers

Chargers +2.5 versus Falcons

Road Favorites

Cowboys -3.5 at Bengals

Titans -7.5 at Jaguars

Colts -2.5 at Raiders

Saints -7.5 at Eagles

Ravens -1.5 at Browns

Last week: 10-5

Season total: 99-93

NFL 2020 Week 13 Picks

That was more like it. I went from last in my pick's pool the previous week to tied for 1st with a 12-4 bounce back, and that was even with questionable late penalties against the Giants and Browns led to blown covers in their wins. This week's odd schedule with the Wednesday game threw off my routine a bit with this post a day late, but here's hoping that getting back to #theprocess leads to another big week for a strong finish.

Road Favorites

Saints -2.5 at Falcons

Colts -3.5 at Texans

Rams -2.5 at Cardinals

Home Underdogs

Jets +8.5 versus Raiders

49ers +1.5 versus Bills

Road Underdogs

Lions +3.5 at Bears

Browns +5.5 at Titans

Patriots +0.5 at Chargers

Washington +9.5 at Steelers

Cowboys +9.5 at Ravens

Home Favorites

Dolphins -11.5 versus Bengals

Vikings -10.5 versus Jaguars

Seahawks -10.5 versus Giants

Packers -8.5 versus Eagles

Chiefs -14.5 versus Broncos

Last week: 12-4

Season total: 89-88

NFL 2020 Week 12 Picks

What is there even to say after last week's debacle? Blown double digit leads all over the played a part in home teams going 9-5 against the spread to kill me after they had been struggling with no fans to start the year. The road teams came through for me on Thanksgiving, however, so I'm going to stick with the #process that had me in good position before this disastrous month.

Road Favorites

Texans -2.5 at Lions

I went with the better quarterback that had more of his weapons available but didn't expect that kind of embarrassing performance from Detroit. It's not looking long for the Matt Patricia era.

Giants -5.5 at Bengals

Brandon Allen should be better than Ryan Finley would be as the fill-in quarterback, but Joe Burrow was the only reason Cincinnati was in games all season. That injury was one of the most devastating of this wretched year.

Dolphins -7.5 at Jets

Maybe this is too many points to lay on the road in a divisional game, but I think Miami's defense is up to the task. With Sam Darnold back, at least I don't have to worry about Joe Flacco YOLO balls ruining the cover this time.

Browns -6.5 at Jaguars

Does it even matter if it's Mike Glennon, Jake Luton, or even Gardner Minshew at this point for Jacksonville? They are missing key players on both sides of the ball, so this should easily be their 10th loss in a row.

Saints -5.5 at Broncos

Outdoors on the road will be a tougher test for Taysom Hill than his warmup against Atlanta's nonexistent defense, but New Orleans is so much more of a complete team. I don't see Drew Lock putting up many points against them.

NFL 2020 Week 11 Picks

Oof, last week was even worse than the previous dud. Work priorities have drawn my focus from these, but I feel surprisingly good about this week. I have something in the works for the NBA offseason, so for now, here is another abbreviated version.

Road Underdogs

Cardinals +3.5 at Seahawks

The recent Thursday games have not been kind to me for the most part.

Eagles +3.5 at Browns

Falcons +4.5 at Saints

Bengals +1.5 at Washington

Lions +1.5 at Panthers

Packers +2.5 at Colts

Home Favorites

Ravens -6.5 versus Titans

Chargers -8.5 versus Jets

Vikings -8.5 versus Cowboys

Buccaneers -3.5 versus Rams

Road Favorites

Steelers -10.5 at Jaguars

Patriots -2.5 at Texans

Dolphins -3.5 at Broncos

Chiefs -6.5 at Raiders

Last week: 4-10

Season total: 76-71

NFL 2020 Week 10 Picks

Well, that was rough. After consistently holding steady each week, the bottom fell out for a 5-9 week. It was a mix of some tough close calls like Houston allowing a late touchdown to blow the cover and Anthony Lynn continuing to handle the clock poorly in a loss at the buzzer, but I also had some straight up bad calls. This week isn't off to a great start with another home team going down, so that's something to keep in mind with these picks.

Home Favorites

Titans -2.5 versus Colts

It started out so promising with that opening drive, too. What is especially annoying is that I went the opposite way with both teams last week, and then last night they gave the type of performance that I had expected.

Lions -3.5 versus Washington

The Alex Smith comeback story is incredible, and I highly recommend watching ESPN's E:60 feature on it. That being said, he has shown some serious rust in his appearances thus far, so I'm going against him until he shows a reason not to even though I don't like that extra half point.

Packers -14.5 versus Jaguars

I mentioned the Jake Luton late touchdown in the opener, and that is a possibility again with an even larger spread here. However, this will be his first road start, and although the status of Green Bay starting corners Jaire Alexander and Kevin King are worth monitoring, the rookie quarterback should be under a lot of pressure throughout the game. Add in the fact that Jacksonville's defense could get picked apart by Aaron Rodgers, and I'm reluctantly laying this many points.

Rams -1.5 versus Seahawks

After losing the first game, Los Angeles has won four of five meetings between these divisional rivals under Sean McVay, and even the loss last year came down to a missed Greg Zuerlein field goal at the end. Coming off of the bye week, I like them to continue to stay undefeated in their new stadium with that shaky Seattle secondary coming into town.

Saints -9.5 versus 49ers

Maybe New Orleans has a bit of a letdown after their monstrous divisional win in prime time last week, but they're back at home against the still undermanned San Francisco roster. Even without a full capacity crowd, I am not taking Nick Mullens in the Superdome, no thank you.

NFL 2020 Week 9 Picks

I’m going keep things short this week because I’ve been preoccupied with the election coverage and some work stuff that required my focus more than this side hobby. I hope to have news on those things soon, but for now, here’s a more abbreviated version than usual.

Road Favorites

Packers -2.5 at 49ers

One of the easiest TNF picks of the season, unfortunately.

Seahawks -2.5 at Bills

Seattle's been one of the best West Coast teams traveling East, and this line is exactly where I expected it to be for the better overall team. There is some worry about Buffalo's pass-centric offense this year taking advantage of the Seahawks' beleaguered pass defense, but the return of Jamal Adams and debut of Carlos Dunlap should help.

Seahawks headed to Buffalo with a 10-game win streak in eastern time zone, counting playoffs (per @EpKap and @ESPNStatsInfo) https://t.co/6CBCiv9F5n

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) November 4, 2020

Texans -6.5 at Jaguars

I'm usually on the other side of this kind of divisional spread, but I took this same Jacksonville +6.5 in Week 5 only to regret it. Now they are starting a 6th round rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, so I'm laying the touchdown.

Steelers -9.5 at Cowboys

Speaking of quarterbacks making their first career starts, Garrett Gilbert is going to be the fourth different signal caller for Dallas this year, and he's up against the toughest pass rush in the league. Good luck.

Patriots -7.5 at Jets

Another large divisional spread that I've been going against, but it's the Jets with Joe Flacco likely at quarterback. They did cover at home against Buffalo a few weeks back, but they're exactly what New England needs to end their losing streak.

NFL 2020 Week 8 Picks

Appropriately for Halloween, this is a bit of a scary week with some high spreads. There are eight games with teams favored by 3.5 on CBS Sports for my pick 'em pool compared to only one that is under a field goal. That already came back to haunt me in yesterday's game, which makes me a little better about leaning towards divisional favorites the rest of the weekend.

Home Favorites 

Panthers -3.5 versus Falcons

I was worried about laying more than a field goal in this tight divisional affair, and it turned out Carolina's defense wasn't actually good enough to win period.

Packers -6.5 versus Vikings 

Aaron Rodgers kicked off Minnesota's disastrous defensive season and is likely to continue it back at home with Davante Adams firing on all cylinders now that he's healthy. Dalvin Cook's return after the bye is a boost for the Vikings, but if they fall behind early, that could limit how much they're able to run him.

Chiefs -19.5 versus Jets

A spread of this size would lead to me taking the points a lot of the time, but you've got arguably the best team in the league at home against the worst team. Don't get cute; the Kansas City defense proved me wrong last week with their ability to extend a blowout.

NFL 2020 Week 7 Picks

Last week had the potential to be great but ended up just "pretty good" at 9-5. The Houston loss was the biggest swing game in my pick 'em pool, and the fact that they were that close to being up 9 with 1:50 left before giving up the touchdown in overtime to not even cover the +5.5 was devastating. Baltimore's 16 point lead with 7:12 left dwindling to just a two point win was frustrating in a different way since yet another terrible pass interference call kickstarted Philadelphia's final drive. I'm not as mad about Green Bay blowing their 10-0 lead after the first quarter since they ended being dominated the rest of the way, but I am just upset with myself for the Dallas pick after writing about the narratives of Kyler Murray in AT&T Stadium and Andy Dalton in prime time. Alas, I still gained ground in my group, and we're onto another week!

*I also want to plug my latest contribution to The Sports Fan Journal: Six Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates to Trade For, which digs into snap rates, rushing share, and target share to find underrated values.*

Home Favorites

Eagles -3.5 versus Giants

Welp, that was a frustrating game with the red zone interception and missed 29 yard field goal keeping New York in the game. There was even still a chance if the first two-point conversion would've worked to make it 21-18 before the winning touchdown, but at the same time, Philadelphia was fortunate to win the game at all. 

Falcons -2.5 versus Lions

There is a little bit of a theme here with teams favored despite having a worse record, and I'm following the money in this case. It's hard to tell how much of Atlanta's turnaround win last week was due to the coaching change and how much was just due to bad Kirk Cousins interceptions, but they looked good on the road. Now they're back at home with Julio Jones appearing back to full speed, so I'm expecting them to put up a lot of points against Detroit. Matthew Stafford could match his buddy Matt Ryan score for score, especially since both are incredibly good in the two-minute drill, but the former hasn't looked quite as sharp in the early going.

NFL 2020 Week 6 Picks

Last week went roughly how I expected with my picks breaking even, but I have more confidence in this slate. The spreads were more in line with how I felt about the matchups, so I'm up to seven favorites this week with a lot of appealing road favorites in particular.

Home Favorites

Patriots -8.5 versus Broncos

I picked the other side of this last week, but since the game was postponed, Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore are back for New England. Having your best player on each side of the ball available obviously makes a bit of a difference, and while Drew Lock is also expected back for Denver, Bill Belichick having extra time to prepare against a young quarterback usually means good things.

Steelers -3.5 versus Browns

Pittsburgh letting Philadelphia hang around last week was a little concerning, but they covered the -7.5 in the end. This spread isn't as daunting, and despite it being (barely) over a field goal in a divisional game, everyone knows Ben Roethlisberger's record against teams from his native Ohio. Against the Browns specifically, the Steelers are 23-2-1 with Big Ben starting.

Dolphins -8.5 versus Jets

It's actually a little surprising that this line isn't even higher considering the dumpster fire that is New York. Adam Gase and Gregg Williams continually blaming others just shows how bad they are as coaches.

Road Underdogs

Texans +5.5 at Titans

I'm mad at myself for not picking Houston last week since I normally go with teams in the first game after firing a coach. Maybe it would've been a different story if Jacksonville's fourth kicker of the season had actually made his attempts, or maybe the Texans can actually turn things around. In a divisional game with Tennessee coming off of an unusually short week, I like the upset here.

NFL 2020 Week 5 Picks

After a subpar Week 4, I don't have a strong feel for this slate of games, either. There were only two mathchups between teams that both have winning records, and after last night's game, only the Browns and Colts affair remains. That's resulted in a lot of high spreads to navigate.

Home Underdogs

Bears +5.5 versus Buccaneers

Well, that wasn't the ending I expected, but I did like getting that many points with a good defense at home for a Thursday game. It was definitely uncomfortable picking Nick Foles against Tom Brady, but it's not the first time he pulled off the upset, of course.

Of all the pirate jokes, I’ve never heard the “how much does it cost to pierce an ear” one Tony Gonzalez just said 🤣. Almost good enough to sway my tentative Bears +5.5 pick

— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) October 9, 2020

Titans +6.5 versus Bills

This game isn't part of the usual CBS Sports slate that my pick 'em pool is on, so I'm using the line form VegasInsider.com, which is quite a bit higher than I thought it would be. Buffalo should have the advantage after all of the nonsense around how Tennessee handled their COVID-19 outbreak, but I think it will still be close. The silver lining of the early "bye week" is that it gave more time for A.J. Brown to get healthy, and if the Titans can get some mismatches with him in the slot, there will be be big plays to be had against a defense that has sprung more leaks than usual in second halves.

Road Favorites

Cardinals -7.5 at Jets

Arizona suffered a harsh wakeup call that they aren't as good as they seemed last week as road favorites, but they get an easier task against the worst team in the league. Sam Darnold wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he at least demonstrated some creativity in a terrible situation. Fill-in starter Joe Flacco isn't likely to have much left in the tank.

Rams -8.5 at Washington

LA likewise didn't cover last week, but they at least won and are now getting Kyle Allen in his first start for Washington. I don't think "knowing the system" will make up for a lack of talent, especially against a defense as capable as the Rams'. 

Colts -2.5 at Browns

Indianapolis has pretty much been in complete control of all of their games after that Week 1 wakeup call, so I feel pretty good about only having to lay a field goal here. Maybe I'm selling Cleveland short after three straight wins of their own, but I still have a hard time believing in their ability to keep up with good teams. It is hilarious that Kevin Stefanski has as many wins (3) in just four games as Hue Jackson had over his 40 game tenure, though.

NFL 2020 Week 4 Picks

That was more like it. I won my pick'em pool last week, and hopefully that will continue as the sample size continues to grow for each team. I'm leaning on favorites a little more than I'd like this week, but the matchups are producing large spreads for a reason.

Road Favorites

Broncos -3.5 at Jets

I was hesitant to lay more than a field goal on the road in Brett Rypien's first career start after it dropped to pick'em in Vegas, but the Jets are just so so bad that I couldn't take them. Adam Gase using his timeouts at the end in a two possession game and then sending the heat at Rypien was the worst, and it's no wonder that Vic Fangio, whom Gase coached with in Chicago, was ready to blow up afterwards.

Colts -2.5 at Bears

My Chicago pick ended up a bit lucky with that big comeback, but their streak of dramatic 4th quarter wins should come to an end against their toughest opponent to date. Indianapolis has coasted to wins after that Week 1 wakeup call against Jacksonville, and they've looked like the playoff contender expected of them on both sides of the ball. Maybe Nick Foles gives the Bears some juice, but I still have no problem laying just a field goal with Philip Rivers against him. 

Cardinals -3.5 at Panthers

I'm not going to overreact to Arizona taking their first loss or Carolina getting their first win; the Cardinals are pretty clearly the superior team, especially with Christian McCaffrey still out. The status of DeAndre Hopkins' ankle is worth monitoring, but the offense should have their way with the unimposing Panthers defense. Expect Kenyan Drake to get on track like the all of the previous running backs that have faced them so far.

Bills -3.5 at Raiders

Similarly, I don't expect the banged up Las Vegas defense to offer much resistance in this one. As mad as I was about Buffalo getting bailed out by a phantom pass interference penalty last week to ruin my upset pick, I can't let that affect my objectivity here. They should put up plenty of points, and their defense should bounce back against a Raiders offense lacking in perimeter weapons at the moment. With the corners the Bills have, they can put them on an island and simply load up in the middle to stop Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.

NFL 2020 Week 3 Picks

Week 2 did end up a bit weird, although it wasn't quite in the way I expected. Every Vegas favorite except the Saints (and Eagles depending on when you checked the line) won their game, but only half of them covered. Just about all of my 50/50 calls went the wrong way, so hopefully I'm due for some positive regression to the mean.

Home Favorites

Jaguars -3.5 versus Dolphins

My first instinct was to take the points in a battle of bad teams, especially being more than a field goal, but I overreacted to getting lucky last week with a backdoor cover for the road team. Since I typically like the home teams on the short week, I stuck with that even though I liked a lot of the matchups for Miami players in fantasy like Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin. That should've been my first hint.

Steelers -3.5 versus Texans

After facing Kansas City and Baltimore, Houston's tough schedule continues, and I'm honestly surprised this line isn't a little higher. Things will open up after this, but Deshaun Watson is going to be under pressure all day against the Steelers' blitz. And aside from Bradley Roby possibly slowing down Diontae Johnson's continued breakout, Houston's defense appears vulnerable again.

#Steelers have 4 players ranked in the top 6 of total pressures generated:

▪️ Bud Dupree - 14 (T-2nd)
▪️ TJ Watt - 13 (3rd)
▪️ Stephon Tuitt - 12 (T-6th)
▪️ Cameron Heyward - 12 (T-6th) pic.twitter.com/xMZogha2k7

— PFF (@PFF) September 25, 2020

Patriots -6.5 versus Raiders

Las Vegas turned things around in a big way on MNF from the 2nd quarter on, but now they're on the road against a much better defensive mastermind. Bill Belichick isn't going to let them rely so heavily on Darren Waller in the passing game, and the New England corners should bounce back against the young receivers. On the other side, Cam Newton has looked great and should threaten the Raiders defense much more consistently than Drew Brees was willing to.

NFL 2020 Week 2 Picks

Week 2 is always my least favorite week to make picks because you can't overreact to a small sample size, and most teams that were at home last week are now on the road and vice versa. I'm trying to focus on how teams performed and not just the results from the opening games, so hopefully that will convey in the picks.

Road Underdogs

Bengals +5.5 at Browns

Sometimes bad beats work in your favor.

Vikings +3.5 at Colts

In a battle between two of the most disappointing teams in Week 1, I'll take the points. I don't think that Philip Rivers can pick apart Minnesota's defense in the way that Aaron Rodgers did, but Kirk Cousins could have success with short passes like Gardner Minshew last week. I am curious to see how much Indy features Jonathan Taylor in the wake of Marlon Mack's unfortunate Achilles tear since Nyheim Hines is unsurprisingly a favorite target of Rivers. Eric Kendricks is one of the game's best coverage linebackers, though, so the Vikings should be in good position to bounce back.

Jaguars +9.5 at Titans

Jacksonville won't be sneaking up on another division rival this time, but they showed that they can at least hang in there to keep this a close game. Although I almost wrote about Corey Davis as this year's DeVante Parker as a former 1st round pick with all of the physical tools who struggled with injuries and offensive situation, I'm not sure Tennessee's passing attack is going to blow away anyone to cover large spreads. A.J. Brown's absence with a bone bruise certainly doesn't help in that regard.

Panthers +9.5 at Buccaneers

While I fully expect Tampa Bay to be the team that gets their first W in this one, this is also too high of a spread for my taste. As I feel like I constantly pointed out last, the Bucs have not been a particularly good home team with last season's 2-6 record following three straight 4-4 performances. Carolina's defense (or lack thereof) is going to cure a lot of team's offensive woes this year, but they showed last week that they can put up points themselves with the Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady partnership. 

Giants +5.5 at Bears

Daniel Jones gets no reprieve going from Pittsburgh's defense to Chicago's, but aside from the red zone mistake, he looked comfortable moving the ball in the new offense. After the Bears were a bit lucky to pull out their win after that wild fourth quarter, this should be another close one. Maybe they'll get off to a faster start with Allen Robinson fed early and often after being unhappy with his extension negotiations, but I'd like to see Mitchell Trubisky translate that strong finish to a full game before laying the points.

NFL 2020 Win Totals, Breakout Players, and Week 1 Picks

We made it! After some serious doubt about whether there would be an NFL season in the year of COVID-19, kudos to the players, staff members, and league protocols for their diligence in preventing the spread of the virus. Now we can enjoy can enjoy America's biggest game and everything that comes with it. This post will go over picks for each team's win totals, Week 1 spreads, and breakout fantasy players. You can also check out my new post on The Sports Fan Journal, Ranking the Top-10 Rookie WR Situations.

These are win totals listed on FanDuel Sportsbook, which I hope will one day include California; the expected wins stat is from ProFootballReference.com based on points scored and allowed; and the lines are from my usual picks pool on CBS Sports, where I'm the reigning champ with a 145-111 record. The key to my success was not to overrate homefield advantage: home favorites were just 63-99 against the spread while road favorites went 50-44. That could prove even more true this season with the lack of fans in attendance. 

Chiefs: 12-4, 11.4 expected wins, 5-4 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 11.5 wins

As much as it broke my heart, they were worthy champions and locked up their core in the offseason. This is a high win total, but it feels pretty safe considering that they were 11-3 in Patrick Mahomes' starts. That number is now up to 24-7 in his career plus 4-1 in the postseason, and it would be no surprise to see him pick up his second MVP in three years as the starter. He's the face of the league for a reason.

Breakout player: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I swear this was already my pick before his impressive debut last night as it's hardly an original idea. Andy Reid offenses are always fantasy friendly for shifty, pass-catching running backs like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Brian Westbrook, and the fact that CEH is the only one he's ever invested a 1st round pick in tells you everything you need to know, especially with Reid's draft day comparison to Westbrook. On a national champion LSU team, he averaged 1.83 yards per team play with 13.96% of the team's receptions, strong numbers for a prospect.

Andy Reid even gave Jamaal Charles’ #25 to CEH. Destined for fantasy greatness

— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) September 11, 2020

Texans: 10-6, 7.8 expected wins, 8-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 7.5 wins

Although they are due for some regression based on their point differential and luck in close games, Houston still has the best quarterback in the division, and Bill O'Brien has won 9 or more games in five out of six years there. Yes, they didn't get enough for DeAndre Hopkins after not wanting to give him the extension he ended up getting in Arizona, but there are still plenty of pieces to work with from last year's team that had a 24-0 lead on Kansas City in the Divisional Round. Returning to the playoffs may be out of reach this year, but .500 is attainable.

Breakout player: Will Fuller

Another one from before last night that got off to a good start. He's coming into the season having only made it through 21 healthy games (including the playoffs) with Deshaun Watson over three season due to injuries for both, but they have shown a brilliant connection. Fuller averages 6.81 targets, 4.57 catches, 72.57 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns in those contests, and over 16 games, that's a 109-73-1,161-11 stat line. With Hopkins gone, his 20.85% target share has plenty of room for improvement, so hopefully his reportedly added muscle helps him stay healthy.

Week 1 line: Chiefs -9.5 versus Texans

It's always nice to start the season off on the right foot.

2019 NFL Win Totals and Week 1 Picks

We've finally arrived: it's football season! As usual, I'll be making picks in a CBSSports.com pool based on their listed spreads and writing each week my reasoning behind them. To start the year, I'm picking each team's over/under based on the win totals listed on Bovada.lv based on their records last year, offseason moves, and their Expected Wins listed on Pro-Football-Reference.com based on points scored and allow. I also made these picks before last night's game, I swear.

Road Favorites

Ravens -5.5 at Dolphins

Dolphins (7 wins last year; 5.2 expected wins) UNDER 4.5: I grouped these by category, but it works out nicely that it starts with the team I expect to be the worst in the league. Miami is doing a great job of acquiring draft assets in future drafts, but that's left a team that previously overachieved now without many quality players on the roster under rookie coach Brian Flores, especially on the offensive line following the Laremy Tunsil trade for the mother load.

Ravens (10 wins; 10.8 expected wins) OVER 8.5: They lost two key pass rushers but did manage to replace Eric Weddle with Earl Thomas to keep the secondary among the best in the league. I'm cautiously optimistic about Greg Roman developing Lamar Jackson and this offense that added Mark Ingram and rookie receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin, both of whom I'm high on. So while I think they might be one of the teams that drops out of the playoffs since half do every year, I don't expect a major step back from last season. In any case, they're plenty strong enough that Week 1 shouldn't pose many problems besides being another stupidly scheduled hot game in Florida early in the season.

Chiefs -4.5 at Jaguars

Chiefs (12 wins; 10.7 expected wins) OVER 10.5: And from the lowly Dolphins we go to the team that has the best chance to topple the Patriots for the crown. Even if LeSean McCoy ends up being as done as he looked last year, I believe in Damien Williams enough to provide the minimal support on the ground needed for Patrick Mahomes to lead another top flight offense. I didn't love all of their changes on defense, but any improvement under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could be enough to get them over the top. I also don't love how high this spread is on the road against a tough defense, but there's a lot less uncertainty with them to go along with the quarterback advantage.

Jaguars (5 wins; 5.7 expected wins) UNDER 8: Although Nick Foles almost has to be an improvement under center by default, there's still a lot left to be desired along the offense. A healthier offensive line and Leonard Fournette can make things easier for Foles to find breakout candidates Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark, but that's far from a given. On the other side, Josh Allen was a steal with the 7th pick, but the absences of Telvin Smith and Tashaun Gipson will make it tough to remain elite.

Lions -2.5 at Cardinals

Cardinals (3 wins; 2.9 expected wins) UNDER 5: The team with the worst record last year carries a lot of intrigue with their sweeping changes that brought in rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. They should be a lot more competitive with this new Air Raid offense that can help overcome questions along a new offensive line, but the defense isn't likely to keep up, especially in the secondary while Patrick Peterson is suspended.

Lions (6 wins; 7 expected wins) UNDER 6: Similar to their Week 1 opponent, I have concerns about the secondary and, more importantly in this case, the coaching. The run-first nature of coach Matt Patricia and new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell doesn't appear to play to the roster's strengths and caps the team's ceiling in a division containing tough defenses. That being said, Matthew Stafford should have a field day against this week's defense with whatever passing volume he receives.

Super Bowl LIII Pick

Patriots -2.5 versus Rams

I know, this pick isn't unsurprising after the public has shifted the line so much in New England's favor after LA opened as a slight favorite, but the AFC Championship game reminded me why I hate picking against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. And to go further than just their experience edge over Jared Goff and Sean McVay, I like the matchup of their quick passing game helping to prevent Aaron Donald from generating that interior rush that impacts Brady. And on the other side, they can shadow Robert Woods with Stephon Gilmore in order to provide help over the top against former Patriot Brandin Cooks, similar to how they took Tyreek Hill out of the last game. Lastly, this game will be on the 17th anniversary of Super Bowl XXXVI between these two teams, which started this New England run in the first place. I'd almost say this would be a fitting way to go out, but at this point it seems like Brady is a robot that will just keep winning.

Season Total: 137-129

2018 NFL Championship Sunday Picks

Here it is, the best Sunday of the year with two amazing games to watch. Both are rematches of a couple of the most exciting games of the year and feature four of the top five offenses in FootballOutsiders' DVOA, so I can't wait to sit on the couch for six hours and enjoy the show.

Last week: 3-1
Season Total: 137-127

Saints -3 versus Rams

Having Aqib Talib will be a huge boost for LA after missing him when these teams first met, but Cooper Kupp also had a big game that he won't be able to replicate now that he tore his ACL. With the line now down to 3, I'm leaning towards the more experienced quarterback and coach, especially in the Superdome.

Chiefs -3 versus Patriots

Maybe I'm factoring home field advantage in too much, but Kansas City is now 8-1 at home compared to 5-3 on the road while New England is 9-0 and 3-5, respectively. And this game is of course in Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have drastic defensive splits. The Patriots playing in their 13th AFC Championship Game in Tom Brady's 17th year as the starter is ridiculous, but this feels like it could go the way of the 2006, 2013, and 2015 road games instead of the 2004 win.