Road Favorites
Ravens -5.5 at DolphinsDolphins (7 wins last year; 5.2 expected wins) UNDER 4.5: I grouped these by category, but it works out nicely that it starts with the team I expect to be the worst in the league. Miami is doing a great job of acquiring draft assets in future drafts, but that's left a team that previously overachieved now without many quality players on the roster under rookie coach Brian Flores, especially on the offensive line following the Laremy Tunsil trade for the mother load.
Ravens (10 wins; 10.8 expected wins) OVER 8.5: They lost two key pass rushers but did manage to replace Eric Weddle with Earl Thomas to keep the secondary among the best in the league. I'm cautiously optimistic about Greg Roman developing Lamar Jackson and this offense that added Mark Ingram and rookie receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin, both of whom I'm high on. So while I think they might be one of the teams that drops out of the playoffs since half do every year, I don't expect a major step back from last season. In any case, they're plenty strong enough that Week 1 shouldn't pose many problems besides being another stupidly scheduled hot game in Florida early in the season.
Chiefs -4.5 at Jaguars
Chiefs (12 wins; 10.7 expected wins) OVER 10.5: And from the lowly Dolphins we go to the team that has the best chance to topple the Patriots for the crown. Even if LeSean McCoy ends up being as done as he looked last year, I believe in Damien Williams enough to provide the minimal support on the ground needed for Patrick Mahomes to lead another top flight offense. I didn't love all of their changes on defense, but any improvement under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could be enough to get them over the top. I also don't love how high this spread is on the road against a tough defense, but there's a lot less uncertainty with them to go along with the quarterback advantage.
Jaguars (5 wins; 5.7 expected wins) UNDER 8: Although Nick Foles almost has to be an improvement under center by default, there's still a lot left to be desired along the offense. A healthier offensive line and Leonard Fournette can make things easier for Foles to find breakout candidates Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark, but that's far from a given. On the other side, Josh Allen was a steal with the 7th pick, but the absences of Telvin Smith and Tashaun Gipson will make it tough to remain elite.
Lions -2.5 at Cardinals
Cardinals (3 wins; 2.9 expected wins) UNDER 5: The team with the worst record last year carries a lot of intrigue with their sweeping changes that brought in rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. They should be a lot more competitive with this new Air Raid offense that can help overcome questions along a new offensive line, but the defense isn't likely to keep up, especially in the secondary while Patrick Peterson is suspended.
Lions (6 wins; 7 expected wins) UNDER 6: Similar to their Week 1 opponent, I have concerns about the secondary and, more importantly in this case, the coaching. The run-first nature of coach Matt Patricia and new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell doesn't appear to play to the roster's strengths and caps the team's ceiling in a division containing tough defenses. That being said, Matthew Stafford should have a field day against this week's defense with whatever passing volume he receives.
Home Underdogs
Panthers +3.5 versus RamsRams (13 wins; 10.9 expected wins) OVER 10.5: Last year's conference representative still looks like one of the teams to beat, so even if a little regression to the mean hits their win total, they can still hit the over with 11 wins. The state of Todd Gurley's knee and two changes along the interior offensive line are the concerns, but if newly extended Jared Goff can continue his trajectory under Sean McVay, they should be in good shape. As far as the opening game, I do think they'll get one of those wins, but covering more than field goal on the road against a good team might be asking too much with a 10 AM start.
Panthers (7 wins; 7.8 expected wins) OVER 7.5: I'm actually pretty excited for this team now that Cam Newton is back healthy and surrounded by young playmakers Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel. The additions of Matt Paradis at center and Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin, Brian Burns, and Tre Boston on defense don't leave a ton of holes on paper, either. After being a little unlucky based on their expected wins last year, I like them to return to the playoffs and possibly challenge for the division title this season.
Road Underdogs
Falcons +4.5 at VikingsFalcons (7 wins; 7.8 expected wins) UNDER 9: I'm not exactly sure why Atlanta has such a higher total than Carolina, but it's a bit too rich for me despite liking their team. I can see them improving after catching some back luck both on the field and in the training room, but I'm just not confident enough in the defense to pick 10 wins for them in that tough division. They should keep things interesting this week, at least, as they can have the offense to put pressure on Minnesota to score points.
Vikings (8 wins, 1 tie; 8.5 expected wins) UNDER 9: This is the first times in years that I'd pick the under for this team, but like with Detroit, I don't like how big of a focus they are putting on establishing the run. Although Dalvin Cook is great and should be have an improved offensive line in front of him, that's just not optimal offense in modern football. The defense will always keep them in games, at least, but the team overall doesn't seem to have the same ceiling as the Packers or even the Bears in their division to get to double digit wins.
Titans +5.5 at Browns
Titans (9 wins; 8.2 expected wins) OVER 8: These are probably the picks that are most likely to make me look foolish at the end of the year, yet I still think Tennessee will stay pretty good this year. While you could probably guess that I hate the fact that they're making Derrick Henry the centerpiece of the offense, I'm still holding out hope that Marcus Mariota can take the next step to lead this team to a winning record. Getting Delanie Walker back as his safety blanket helps after missing essentially the whole season, and the defense should give them a chance to be competitive each week, starting in Cleveland. In a wide open division, that should be enough to avoid a losing record at least.
Browns (7 wins, 1 tie; 7.2 expected wins) UNDER 9: I know they're the darling of the league right now, and I do agree that they should be pretty fun. I'm just not convinced that they'll get to 10 wins with a shaky offensive line and a rookie head coach, even if Freddie Kitchens was an impressive playcaller down the stretch. Simply getting rid of Gregg Williams does help the defense, but I still think they're a year away from becoming elite.
49ers +0.5 at Buccaneers
49ers (4 wins, 5.8 expected wins) OVER 8: Yes, this is a bit of a homer pick with them most likely being right at that 8 number. There's no half win option here, though, so why not make them my breakout pick after being unlucky with the Jimmy Garoppolo injury and a 3-6 record in games decided by 8 points or less. They added Dee Ford and Nick Bosa to bolster the pass rush around DeForest Buckner, and new starters Kwon Alexander and Tarvarius Moore should improve the coverage over the middle. If Garoppolo can come back all the way from his torn ACL and perform at the high level that he's shown in the past, this team should win in Tampa (a 1:25 PM start instead of 10 AM helps) and potentially push for a playoff berth.
Buccaneers (5 win; 6.5 expected wins) OVER 6.5: The NFC South might be the toughest division because all four teams have talent. New coach Bruce Arians should make better use of that talent after they underachieved by one of the biggest margins based on expected wins, and his downfield offense should prove a match for gunslinger Jameis Winston as he targets Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard. The additions of Devin White, Shaq Barrett, and Mike Edwards and return of Vernon Hargreaves could get this defense to respectable levels by season's end. I'm not betting on it or the offensive line being ready Week 1, though.
Texans +7.5 at Saints
Texans (11 wins; 10.2 expected wins) OVER 8.5: While they may not have gotten great value in their blockbuster deals last week, this team is still in best position in their division thanks to having its best quarterback to go along with a still solid defense. Hopefully these new additions along the offensive line give Deshaun Watson time to find his multitude of weapons that now includes Duke Johnson, whom I'm a believer in as a starting caliber running back that can make up for the unfortunate Lamar Miller injury. I think they keep it close enough to cover despite the imposing opening opponent.
Saints (13 wins; 11.2 expected wins) OVER 10.5: After overachieving last year based on expected wins, I am a bit concerned that a drop off could be coming as Drew Brees ages, but this is arguably the best roster in the NFC. They bring back four starters along the elite offensive line, brought in an adequate Mark Ingram replacement in Latavius Murry, and added Jared Cook as a needed extra option in the passing game, so as long as it's not a sharp decline from Brees, they will still put up plenty of points. On the other side, their young secondary added another talented player in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson as a potential 4th round steal, and that group should to grow into a strength as they get more experience.
Broncos +1.5 at Raiders
Broncos (6 win; 7.4 expected wins) OVER 7: After one of the largest differences in wins versus expected wins, there's hope for improvement under rookie head coach Vic Fangio, who is a good bet to get this defense back to being one of the toughest in the league. The big key to their success will be whether new quarterback Joe Flacco does well with a change in scenery after being mired in mediocrity in recent years. If he can just be a decent game manager as the defense regains its form, they should hover around .500 and beat the bottom feeders like Oakland.
Raiders (4 wins; 3.9 expected wins) UNDER 6: I was ready to pick this even before the latest drama with Antonio Brown, and the dysfunction with which they've handled it makes me feel even better about their opinion of their outlook. While I like Clelin Ferrell, he was a clear reach at #4 overall and isn't likely to turn around an anemic pass rush that only racked up a league-low 13 sacks on the season. For context, the next worst team had 30 and the star they traded away, Khalil Mack, had 12.5 by himself. The new additions on offense should help, but it's still hard to see that unit being anything better than average, let alone good enough to make up for the defense on a consistent basis.
Home Favorites
Bears -3.5 versus PackersPackers (6 wins, 1 tie; 7.4 expected wins) OVER 9.5: Although I got this pick wrong based on the history of Thursday night openers, I actually already liked Green Bay for the division even before last night's scrappy win. Like I mentioned in that tweet, I'm always inclined to pick a healthy Aaron Rodgers and was even tempted to back them as Super Bowl sleepers after their defensive additions in the post-Mike McCarthy era, but Matt LeFleur is still a rookie head coach implementing a new offense. The upper echelon of the NFC is still occupied by the Saints, Rams, Eagles, and even the other two contenders in the North, so I'm mostly just looking for this season to be a step in the right direction for a team that's missed the postseason the last two seasons.
Bears (12 wins; 11.5 expected wins) OVER 9: This was one of the hardest picks for me because they're still a good team that's due for some regression to the mean. Forcing 36 turnovers is a tall task to repeat, especially with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio now in Denver, so it will likely be up to the offense to pick up the slack as the defense is "merely" elite rather than other worldly. There is potential there if Mitchell Trubisky can continue his development as he is surrounded by a strong supporting cast that now includes stud running buck David Montgomery after the team traded up for him despite their limited draft capital. Last night's game aside, I think the offense can do enough to maintain another winning record.
Eagles -8.5 versus Redskins
Eagles (9 wins; 8.5 expected wins) OVER 9.5: This is a little bit of a leap of faith because their roster on paper, with some better injury luck, doesn't have many holes aside from an up and down secondary. 2nd round pick Miles Sanders and the return of DeSean Jackson potentially provide the lead 'back and deep threat that the offense needs to fire on all cylinders while 1st round pick Andre Dillard adds to their embarrassment of riches on the offensive line, so Carson Wentz is set up well for a bounce back season. That starts with one of the two teams in their division that should provide four relatively easy victories.
Redskins (7 wins; 5.7 expected wins) UNDER 6.5: They overachieved based on expected wins, have their star left tackle holding out, and had a camp battle between a journeyman and rookie at quarterback. The defense has some potential, but the secondary is far from the shutdown unit like they're being paid as. I just don't really see a lot of upside for this team in the short term.
Jets -3.5 versus Bills
Jets (4 wins; 5.4 expected wins) UNDER 7: Even if you think new coach Adam Gase will improve the team enough to overachieve by a win or so instead of underachieving based on expected wins, 7 is quite the optimistic number. The four game suspension for Chris Herndon hurts since he and Sam Darnold looked impressive together down the stretch of their rookie years, and while Le'Veon Bell does bring a new safety net for the young passer, it's hard to know what to expect from him at this point. The additions of C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams make the middle of the defense even more of a strength, but the edge rushers and corner depth will likely hold them back from becoming a truly intimidating unit. They might be the second best team in their division, which is why I'm picking them here at home, but that's not saying much in the AFC (L)East.
Bills (6 wins; 5 expected wins) UNDER 6.5: Maybe a revamped offensive line and receiving corps will help Josh Allen improve as a passer, but I'll believe it when I see it after the vast majority of his success last year came via improvisational plays with his legs. The defense will likely keep them in games again, especially since Sean McDermott is a good coach, but I have similar questions about the cornerback depth as the Jets'. After overachieving by a win last year, I think some regression to the mean along with their additions will probably have them at 6 wins again.
Seahawks -9.5 versus Bengals
Seahawks (10 wins; 9.9 expected wins) UNDER 8.5
Bengals (6 wins; 6 expected wins) UNDER 6
Chargers -6.5 versus Colts
Chargers (12 wins; 10.4 expected wins) OVER 9.5
Colts (10 wins; 10.1 expected wins) UNDER 6.5
Cowboys -7.5 versus Giants
Cowboys (10 wins; 8.4 expected wins) UNDER 9
Giants (5 wins; 7 expected wins) UNDER 6
Patriots -6.5 versus Steelers
Patriots (11 wins; 10.7 expected wins) OVER 11
Steelers (9 wins, 1 tie; 9.5 expected wins) OVER
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