Thursday, March 2, 2023

Roster Analysis: The Warriors' Unique Two-Way Usage and the 15th Roster Spot

A report of an innocuous Warriors transaction on Wednesday probably didn't mean much to all but diehard Dubs fans and/or NBA capologists: Golden State is signing rookie wing Lester Quinones from their Santa Cruz G League affiliate to a 10-day contract. Pretty standard stuff at this point in the season for teams with open roster spots, right? Not quite, as the team is set to have a record-setting luxury tax payment and has been compensating with a fascinating usage of Two-Way contracts, leading to some salary cap gymnastics with this move.

Let's backtrack a little bit to the offseason as they finalized their roster. They used cash to move up in the 2nd round and take Ryan Rollins at #41, and as I speculated before the draft, they used part of the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception to sign him to a three year deal instead of just two on the minimum. Also as expected, their other 2nd round pick was used on an intriguing international prospect, Gui Santos, that wouldn't need to take up a roster spot, though he ended up being stashed in Santa Cruz to develop in their system instead of returning to Brazil. Filling out the bench with one player on the rookie minimum of $1,017,781 compared to the veteran minimum that carries a $1,836,090 cap hit may not be a big difference in salary, but with how deep into the tax threshold they are and the repeater penalty, that cut over $5 million off of their tax payment.

After a record $170 million tax bill on top of a $176 million payroll last season, salary raises meant this roster was set to be even more expensive this season, so every dollar past the line matters. It makes sense that they would open the season with only 14 players on the main roster as a result. And while cost effective with long-term upside, using one of those spots on Rollins did come with knowing that the 20 year old with just two years of experience at Toledo won't be contributing much. That put even more pressure on nailing their two Two-Way players who don't count against the cap.

One of those spots was tentatively assigned to Quinones, an underrated junior wing out of Memphis (where he was part of the same recruiting class as James Wiseman) who would be turning 22 a month into the season. Although he wasn't drafted, the Warriors had two reported workouts with him during the pre-draft process, so it was apparent that they had their eye on him as a 3+D glue guy who can create a bit at 6'4", 208 lbs. With so much youth on the roster already, however, they let him go at final cut downs to develop in Santa Cruz instead, and the Two-Way spots went to Anthony Lamb and Ty Jerome. So instead of a veteran or two to fill out the bench with a rookie prospect on a Two-Way, it's the other way around.

Both Lamb and Jerome have been valuable players during this injury-riddled season as 25 year olds who know where to be within the system. That's not a surprise considering the success the franchise has had with Two-Way players ever since those kind of contracts were first introduced in the 2017-18 season, when they actually had the first ever Two-Way agreement with Chris Boucher. He unfortunately didn't work out long-term with the team before finding success in Toronto, but the other Two-Way signing that season, Quinn Cook, was a crucial player as Stephen Curry dealt with injuries. Cook started 18 games and got converted into a regular contract to be postseason eligible as Golden State went on to win the Finals.

I got to know the Santa Cruz GM and Assistant GM, Kent Lacob and my fellow USF Sport Management alum Ryan Atkinson, a little bit since I started working part-time for Santa Cruz that season and next, and it's been great seeing them rise to key roles in the Golden State front office. They helped bring players like Damion Lee and Juan Toscano-Anderson into the fold as Two-Way contributors who eventually won another championship and also added other Santa Cruz players who got called up elsewhere like Kendrick Nunn and Georges Niang. Lacob is also credited for identifying Gary Payton II as an under the radar addition out of the G League, according to Anthony Slater. Now Lamb can be added to the list of successful sleepers for this braintrust after he mostly spent the previous two seasons with Houston's Rio Grande Valley affiliate on Two-Way contracts.

As a forward who defends multiple positions, shoots well from deep, and moves the ball, Lamb quickly earned Steve Kerr's trust and has already played in 47 games. Jerome, a more known commodity as the #24 pick in 2019, has played in 40 while being active for three more. With good size for a point guard, the ability to take care of the ball, and a nice shooting touch, he's had a bigger role during Curry's two injured stints. Two-Way players can't play in the postseason, though, so a choice is inevitably coming about who will take the 15th roster spot. Adding things up, they've been needed on the active list for 90 total games on Two-Way contracts, which wouldn't seem to be a problem yet since Two-Way players are typically able to play up to 50 games each. Therein lies the rub and what inspired this whole post.

Until recently, I wasn't aware of a certain rule that @FakeLogic and @GSWCBA discussed on Twitter: teams that don't have a full 15 player roster are limited to only 90 total games with Two-Way players rostered. This is presumably to prevent teams from trying to save money like the Warriors are doing, and it's forcing their hand now. The front office is now continuing their resourcefulness by signing Quinones to a 10-day to temporarily fill the 15th spot, which accomplishes a couple of key things. First, a rookie is cheaper with only a $58,493 cap hit while someone with two years of experience like Lamb would cost $105,522 over the same span. More importantly, this extends the runway before they have to make a decision about which Two-Way to convert to a regular contract since they can now go to 50 games each. And as a side benefit, this is a nice little pay bump for Quinones as a reward for developing with the organization, and that could influence a future decision to sign with the team for next season, potentially on a newly opened Two-Way. Locking him up on a two-year Two-Way would be ideal considering how much he's already developed under their tutelage, and it's easy to see him eventually filling the Lee role, if not more. He came off the bench for part of the Showcase Cup before starting every regular season game, and over 39 total G League games, Quinones is averaging 19.2 points, 6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1 steal in 31.1 minutes with 46.7%/38.8%/77.8% shooting while launching 7.2 threes per game.

I am expecting this signing to become official on March 2nd, which would cover six games with a full 15 player roster. Lamb will only be eligible for three of them, so it will be interesting to see how they pick which ones. I'm also curious at how many minutes Quinones will actually play since the Warriors are in the middle of a tight battle for playoff positioning. Curry is expected back during this stretch, so Jerome could become inactive as a result, preserving a few eligible games as insurance for the stretch run.

Barring the signing of an external candidate who was bought out by another team like Nerlens Noel or Serge Ibaka, it would seem that Lamb has the inside track for the 15th roster spot when the dust settles. He's been used more often and fills a bigger roster need given how many guards the team has. What will be most interesting to me is the method that they use to sign him (or Jerome, if a guard is needed instead) going forward. I see three potential outcomes:
  1. The simplest way, which would also be the least appealing, is just signing a minimum contract for the rest of this season. Lamb would then hit restricted free agency this summer due to only having three years of service while Jerome would be unrestricted.
  2. Perhaps more likely is signing a minimum contract that also covers next season. How much, if any, of it is guaranteed would have to be negotiated. This is what they did with Cook in 2018.
  3. Lastly, they could use part of the MLE for a deal that goes up to two seasons beyond this. It doesn't have to be for the minimum but likely would, and they've gone this route multiple times in recent years, namely when converting Lee in 2020 to have him on the minimum through last year's title run.
After opening up roster spots and room under the luxury tax with the D'Angelo Russell trade, I opined whether the Warriors would use the remainder of the MLE to sign other G League players to multi-year deals with minimal guarantees in the hope of finding future contributors on the cheap like what happened with Nunn for Miami. They did end up signing Toscano-Anderson, Mychal Mulder, and Ky Bowman for the rest of that season and two additional non-guaranteed years at the minimum like Lee, and while Bowman ended up cut by the next preseason, that was a solid hit rate. Mulder was a useful shooter for a play-in team the following season, and after also being initially released like Bowman, Toscano-Anderson stuck around on the aforementioned Two-Way before getting a regular contract again.

Of course, it takes two to tango, and either Lamb or Jerome would have to agree to signing any of those types of contracts. However, the team has the leverage, especially with two options for one spot, so they could negotiate for more years of control depending on the amount of salary guaranteed. A possible wrinkle with option #2 that would apply to Lamb more so than Jerome is signing a two-year minimum with next season being a team option in order to decline it and sign for more years with Non-Bird rights in the offseason. 

A recent example of this is what Boston did when converting breakout shooter Sam Hauser's Two-Way last year because they didn't have the MLE available. They signed him to just a two-year minimum during the season and then worked out a deal in the summer where they declined that team option for the second year in order to re-sign for three years in restricted free agency. I say this is more likely with Lamb because he is only eligible for restricted free agency and has made much less money than Jerome in his career, which makes it more likely that he would sign for multiple non-guaranteed years if he got next year's projected minimum of $2 million locked up. Non-Bird rights allow for a contract of up to four years, so they could have him under team control through 2027 in this way compared to using the Taxpayer MLE that can only go out to 2025.

Having a 10th-man under contract for extra years isn't the biggest deal, but winning on the margins can go a long way with such an expensive payroll that has limited flexibility. The thought process behind these kind of transactions is what intrigues me most, both for this season and future Two-Ways. Golden State has already been creative with how they've filled out the back of the roster, and signing Quinones to a 10-day helps to that end as they decide which cost-controlled player they will make postseason eligible.
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