Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Looking Back at this Warriors Title and Ahead to the Offseason

When I got home from the Warriors' championship parade, a question from my friend stuck with me: Can they sign everyone this summer?

The short answer is yes, they can. The real answer is that it depends on the market, as usual. I've been thinking (and tweeting) about this topic for a long time, of course, but I figured it would be best to pour all of my thoughts on the team in one place. 

How Golden State Got Here


First, I want to look back at this this incredible title run for my former employer after they were +1100 to win it all with just a 48.5 win total over/under in the preseason according to Basketball Reference. There was reason for optimism, though, with the prospect of Klay Thompson finally returning from his ACL and Achilles tears and the team's 15-5 close to last season. They ultimately did not make the playoffs despite having the 8th-best record in the West due to it unfortunately being the first year of the Play-In, but they showed that the combination of Stephen Curry leading the offense, Draymond Green leading the defense, shrewd addition Andrew Wiggins contributing on both ends, and Jordan Poole emerging as another offensive creator all added up to a winning formula.

Cue this season's 18-2 start, and the optimism was justified after some savvy offseason additions. Drafting teenage prospects Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody was the focus of the "two timelines" approach to this season, and it was supplemented with the veteran minimum signings of Andre Iguodala for a second run, Otto Porter Jr. as a "prove-it" value deal, and Nemanja Bjelica as a previously missing stretch big. The biggest surprise was the impact of Gary Payton II after going unclaimed on waivers at final cuts and being re-signed on a minimum contract that counted against the luxury tax as slightly cheaper than he was originally set for since it was now a one-year pact.

All of those players played a part at some point in this roller coaster season. I mentioned on the PickUp Podcast that it was a bit of a tale of two seasons for both the Warriors and Celtics but in opposite directions. Golden State's record basically peaked at 29-7 with a +9.9 net rating on January 3rd, but then they finished just 24-22 with a +2.1 net rating. First it was Iguodala getting worn down and going on the shelf while turning 38 during this stretch. Then things really snowballed when Green was out with a calf strain that was actually caused by a back issue right at the time that the team was trying to reintegrate Thompson. Finally, Curry suffered a foot sprain that ended his regular season in just the second game that he, Thompson, and Green could really play together.

Put it all together, and they finished 3rd in the West with a 53-29 record. They had a strong +5.5 net rating based on the #2 defensive rating in the league (106.6) carrying the #15 offensive rating (112.1). Contrast that with Boston, who sat below .500 (23-24) with a middling +1.4 net rating as late as January 21st. From that point on, though, they went 28-7 with an astronomical +15.5 net rating to finish 51-31 with an impressive +7.4 net rating, the #1 defense (106.2), and the #9 offense (113.6).

However, once Curry returned in time for the start of playoffs to give the Warriors a #fullsquad for the first time all season, the Warriors looked like the best team in the league again. They dispatched of the Nuggets with a gentleman's sweep, battled past the Grizzlies in 6, and then won in 5 again versus the Mavericks (coincidentally eliminating them the same night that the amazing Top Gun: Maverick came out). Conversely, after the Celtics swept the Nets, they had to grind through 7 game series against both the Bucks and the Heat that wore out their 7.5 man rotation. After Boston got out to a 2-1 lead in the Finals, fatigue caught up to them while Golden State figured things out to win three straight like in 2015 behind their suffocating defense and the brilliance of Curry on offense. Not only was it on the same day, June 16th, that they won in 2015, but like with the Mavs, it was pretty fitting that the team known for being "lightyears ahead" won it all the weekend that Lightyear came out.

Warriors' Draft Picks


Now that the parade and celebrations have (mostly) finished, it's a quick turnaround to the NBA Draft this Thursday already. The Warriors currently hold the #28 pick in the 1st round and the #51 and #55 picks in the 2nd round.

There is almost no chance that the reigning champs have three rookies as a part of the 15 man roster, so look for at least one of the 2nd rounders to be someone they can sign to a two-way contract and/or an international prospect to stash overseas for further development. There apparently are some rumors that they're looking to move the #28 pick to save a little bit of money against their record-setting luxury tax bill, but that doesn't quite track since a rookie that late in the 1st is only projected to earn $2,196,240 this year while a one-year veteran minimum contract would count as $1,811,516 according to RealGM.

Perhaps the focus is more on moving this pick for one next year in what may be a stronger draft class, but for now, I think that they stay at #28. While the guaranteed contract might add a touch to their tax payment, having a potential rotation player on a cost-controlled rookie scale deal would help out more in the long run. There are no guarantees that late in the round, of course, but #28 is where they got Poole in the 2019 draft, which shows the potential of their scouting and development departments.

Based on reported workouts and interviews so far, it seems that Golden State is focused on wings, which makes sense based on positional value and the strength of prospects expected to go in the range of their picks. Jake LaRavia, Jaden Hardy, Kendall Brown, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Bryce McGowens, and Wendell Moore Jr. are all prospects that fall under that category and that they've reportedly shown interest in.

Ever since the WCC tournament, I was hoping that local product Jalen Williams out of Santa Clara could be their guy as a do-it-all wing, but it seems that he's a lock for the top-20 after he exploded at the Draft Combine. Christian Braun is another preferred target for me since he has experience to contribute right away as a junior for the National Champion Jayhawks yet who still has some room for growth to be more than a 3-and-D wing who excels in transition since he just turned 21 in April. Then there's Dalen Terry, who was an eye-opener in the NCAA Tournament when Arizona needed him to take on more playmaking responsibility at 6'6" with a 7'0.75" wingspan, but his stock seems to have risen past their range like Williams.

Of the group that's been linked to them, LaRavia is the one who most seems like a Warriors player, and like Williams and Braun, he's a junior who would be 21 for his entire rookie year. In fact, there's some more upside since he's on the younger side for his class as he'll still be 20 until November 3rd, and he's just barely older than surprisingly old freshman TyTy Washington and Aminu Mohammed (who both happen to be born November 15th, 2001) while younger than sophomores Walker Kessler and Tari Eason. 

LaRavia started at Larry Bird's alma mater Indiana State before breaking out with Wake Forest this year, and he's known for his well-rounded game. A 6'6.75", 227 lb forward who can handle, pass, and shoot while holding his own defensively can contribute to a lot of lineups. Baldwin, on the other hand, is more one dimensional as a shooter, but he's been an interesting prospect after being part of the USA U-19 team that won gold last year with Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey, and Johnny Davis, among others. He was considered a lottery talent who chose to play for his father at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee instead of Duke, and he struggled in just 11 unhealthy games before ultimately shutting it down. His reputation as a sharpshooter and surprising size at the combine (6'9.25", 231 lbs with a 7'1.75") is an intriguing combo.

In the 2nd round, you mostly just take the best player that falls to you, and my favorite prospects that could go in their range are Gabriele Procida, Hyunjung Lee (though his reported foot injury could complicate things), Jabari Walker, Julian Champagnie, Jordan Hall, David Roddy, Jaylin Williams, and Dominick Barlow.

Warriors' Free Agents


The real intrigue lies with their own free agents as the drawback to one year, minimum contracts is that it can be harder to re-sign the players afterwards. In all likelihood, Iguodala is set to ride off into the sunset with this last title, so that leaves six other veteran free agents to address, starting with one of the longer-tenured Warriors.

I think the main priority is Kevon Looney after he was a rebounding machine in the playoffs and an ironman this season with 104 total games played. Yes, James Wiseman was taken with the #2 overall pick in 2020, but after a season lost to injury, he can't be relied upon to be the starting center just yet. Looney should have more interest around the league than when he signed a modest 3 year, $15 million deal the last time he was a free agent in 2019, but Golden State has his full Bird Rights to offer all the way up to a max contract. With not a ton of cap space around the league, I think he could possibly be had for the equivalent of the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception that's projected to start at $6,392,000 and could top out at 3 years, $20,134,800. Looney is remarkably still only 26 years old, so I could see the Warriors even going out to a fourth year with partial guarantees. For the sake of projections, I'll say that he sticks with the team that drafted him where he knows he fits and is appreciated, and they agree on a 4 year, $26 million deal that starts at $5,803,571 with $22 million guaranteed.

There could be a good debate as to who the next most important free agent is for the Warriors, but I think that Payton is more likely to be back than Porter. Versatile forwards that can stretch the defense (39.8% career 3P%), rebound (9.3 per 36 minutes, 21% DRB% this year), and pass (2.4 assists against just 1 turnover per 36) are valuable to any team in the league, so I expect Porter to have a nice market. While Golden State could offer him the TP MLE that I mentioned, the full MLE that projects to start at $10,349,000 and top out at 4 years, $45,500,700 could be too hard to resist for possibly his last payday after just turning 29. With Kuminga waiting in the wings, I'm also not sure that the Warriors would offer him the full $20,134,800 guaranteed given their tax bill going forward. It just feels like Looney and Payton are more valuable to the Warriors than to any other team while Porter could fit in anywhere.

Thus, I think they spend on Payton instead after his breakout season. It's hard to say what his market might be after being a journeyman the first six years of his career and with his 30th birthday already approaching in December (Payton surprisingly the oldest of the three). This is his first and possibly only time to cash in, so while he might feel a sense of loyalty to the first team to really give him a full opportunity, he should take the best deal available to him. Since Payton finished the end of last season with the team and didn't join anyone else, Golden State has his Early Bird Rights despite waiving him in October, which means that they could sign him to a deal worth as much as about $46.5 million over 4 years. I wouldn't expect quite that much, but the fact that they could theoretically sign him through the Early Bird Exception while retaining the TP MLE to use on someone else like Porter (or to sign a 2nd rounder to a 3 year deal) is pretty handy. If Payton does agree to return, I'm projecting it to be for about the equivalent of that TP MLE: 3 years, $20 million with a starting salary of around $6,172,840.

I think Bjelica, Damion Lee, and Juan Toscano-Anderson could all be welcomed back but only on minimum contracts. The latter could be a restricted free agent if the team extends a $2,126,991 Qualifying Offer to him for the right of first refusal, and that is actually the first decision they need to make after the draft. If both Looney and Payton are retained at numbers around my projections, I could see the team rolling with just 14 players on the roster to at least start the year since adding another veteran minimum could cost around $14 million between salary and the tax. At this high of a team salary above the tax line, even a rookie minimum of $1,004,159 could cost nearly $8 million in total as the 15th player, or a 2nd rounder could save over $6 million compared to a veteran for the 14th spot. It will also be worth watching whether they use part of the TP MLE to sign a rookie to a 3 year deal as opposed to only 2 with the minimum.

There are also the two-way spots or possible minimum deals for the incumbents Quinndary Weatherspoon and Chris Chiozza; last year's two-way player Nico Mannion, who struggled with his health while trying to raise his stock in Italy; 2020 2nd round shooter Justinian Jessup, who has been stashed in the Australian league; or possibly this year's 2nd rounders like I mentioned. There are a lot of moving pieces there, but all of them could likely be had on the cheap. It's worth noting that Chiozza is no longer eligible for a two-way, though.

Possible Warriors Extensions


This is where the big decisions come. Wiggins is entering the last year of his contract after being the second-best player on a championship run and Poole is eligible for a rookie-scale extension before potentially hitting restricted free agency next summer.

After signing a 5 year, $147,710,050 max contract with the Timberwolves in 2017 that averaged $29,542,010, Wiggins is set to make $33,616,770 this season. Still only 27 years old, he is sure to have plenty of interest when more teams have cap space next summer, so getting a deal done now would likely behoove the Warriors. ESPN's Bobby Marks suggested a 3 year, $81 million extension in his offseason preview, and I've seen numbers as high as $90 million thrown around elsewhere. Since the latter number is more in line with his current average salary, I'll project that the former #1 pick elects to extend with the team that's helped him reach his potential on a 3 year, $90 million deal that starts at $27,777,778.

Figuring out a number for Poole could get more tricky since there is an October 17 deadline for rookie extensions, but I'm less worried about his place on the team long-term since Golden State could match any offers in restricted free agency if it got to that point. SF Chronicle's Connor Letourneau reported that an offer likely needs to start at around 4 years, $100 million, which is an understandable increase on the $80 million range that I've heard before. For now, I will project a 4 year, $100 million extension that starts at $22,321,429.

There is also the chance that Green wants an extension sooner rather than later since he could opt out next summer, but that would come with some risk since he'll be 33 by then. It would probably benefit both parties if they come to an agreement for him to decline his $27,586,224 player option to sign a multi-year deal that starts at a lower number instead of just signing an extension now. That wouldn't be able to happen until next year, but at this point in his career, there is a certain level of trust that he'll be taken care of.

Possible Warriors Signings


If some of the veterans find better situations elsewhere to open up a roster spot or two, it's most likely that they'll be replaced with another minimum signing rather than the TP MLE unless it's a really solid player taking a surprising discount like DeMarcus Cousins in 2018. 

As for possible targets, Tyreke Evans is likely atop the list after he's worked out for the team twice this year and was a former Bob Myers client. Maybe a proven player like Joe Ingles, Serge Ibaka, or a veteran that gets cut wants to chase a ring. I could also see them take a shot on another stretch (-ish) big like Markieff Morris, Gorgui Dieng, Trey Lyles (if his option is declined), Jalen Smith, or old friend Marquese Chriss (if waived) on a non-guaranteed deal, and I think that last part would be key to maintain flexibility with roster spots ahead of the buyout market.

Total Warriors Salary Bill


Add it all up, and you're looking at an even more expensive roster than the one that just set a record with nearly $350 million in total salary between contracts and the luxury tax. If they keep their 1st round pick, re-sign Looney and Payton to deals near my projections, and sign three veterans on the minimum like Bjelica, Lee, and Toscano-Anderson, they're looking at around $191 million in salaries plus over $186 million just in the tax for a total of over $377 million. 


That's why it's hard for me to see Porter back at a market-level deal no matter how much I loved the fit, or at least not along with both Looney and Payton. Replacing the rookie scale contract for the #28 pick with a 2nd rounder on the minimum could cut over $9 million off of the total bill, so perhaps a slight move down would be worth it even if you don't get as many cost-controlled years in the long run.

The real issue is the 2023-24 season when the new potential deals for Wiggins and Poole (and possibly Green) would kick in. If they're both signed to extensions around my projected numbers along with both Looney and Payton, that total number could balloon to over $477 million with just 11 players signed since they'd be nearly $54 million past the projected tax line of $156,450,000 and facing the Repeater Penalty yet again. At that point, any small cut in salary has huge implications in tax thresholds, so Wiggins getting a deal more in line of Marks' $81 million suggestion and Green opting out for a lower number that year would go a long way. Maybe tacking on two years and around $38.5 million for a total of 3 years and $66 million would work that summer to take him through age 35?



That is also the last year of Thompson's max contract, so the total team cost could come back down after that if he's re-signed to a more manageable deal, though it would also be when a potential Wiseman extension kicks in. That's getting way down the line, but needless to say, things aren't getting any cheaper anytime soon. Team management has said that they're willing to spend to keep this group together as long as they believe that they could really contend, and the awesome new Chase Center is reportedly a printing press during these long playoff runs. So time will tell if they can manage some more #checkbookwins.
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