I've written many times on here about how much I love the NBA lottery, so of course I had to come back to write some short thoughts on this year's proceedings. This isn't the most exciting draft class with no clear potential superstars at the top, but it's still exciting to see woebegone franchises see their luck turn with new franchise cornerstones thanks to the randomness of ping pong balls.
I wrote brief profiles for the consensus top-3 prospects for work, so #MakeYourPick on who will go #1 over on PlayPickUp.com. I didn't include perhaps my favorite prospect this year, Shaedon Sharpe, since he's not considered likely to go quite that high, but I think that could change based on who emerged as the winner tonight.
The actual lottery drawing isn't exactly a spectator sport, even after I embedded the video to start after the introductions, but it's still fascinating to watch. Based on past columns from ESPN's Zach Lowe when he was in attendance of the event, we know that the lowest number drawn is often a key factor. Of the 1,000 assigned four digit combinations, the worst teams that have 140 combinations each typically have the lowest such as 1-2-3-4, which made the first numbers drawn intriguing.
When 14 was the first ball to pop up, I'm sure that representatives from teams at the end of the lottery perked up a bit...only to have their hopes dashed by the 1 that followed it. Another high number, 13, coming up next was interesting, and then the 6 that ended the initial drawing meant that the Orlando Magic won for the first time since 2004.
That 14-1-13-6 combination meant that for the third straight year, one of the bottom-three teams that had a 14% chance at the #1 pick won it. This is the fourth time overall that Orlando has received the #1 pick, and the previous three all resulted in franchise changers: Shaquille O'Neal in '92, Penny Hardaway in '93 (after a trade), and Dwight Howard in '04.
2-7-14-9 coming up in the next drawing meant that the Oklahoma City Thunder moved up in the order for the first time since 2009 when they received the #3 pick that became James Harden. Of course, this is only the third time since that draft that they've missed the playoffs. It's a bit funny that OKC missed out on one of those coveted bottom-three spots that had the best odds yet they managed much better luck than last year when they fell two spots. Given their fourth-worst record, they had a 12.2% chance of winning the #2 pick.
The team that outdid everyone in the tanking department, the Houston Rockets, saw their efforts come at least somewhat to fruition when their 12.7% chance at the #3 pick occurred. In an ironic twist that occasionally happens in these drawing videos, after the 1-12-6-3 combination resulted in them hearing their name at last, the next drawing of 2-10-1-12 was also for them. Unfortunately, you don't win anything for that.
Finally, 4-7-9-10 meant that the Sacramento Kings moved up to the 4th pick. That continues the weirdest trend since the lottery format was changed in 2019: this is now three straight years that the team in the #7 spot won the #4 pick even though there's only an 8.5% chance of it happening. I guess promoting former lottery star Anjali Ranadive, the owner's daughter, to Assistant GM of their G League team on the day of the event brought some good luck.
Funny timing after Anjali Ranadive first hit the spotlight at the 2014 NBA lottery, and now this is announced the day of this year’s drawing. Aka one of my favorite NBA day’s of the year https://t.co/7QVjntNbgd
— Dave Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) May 17, 2022
Now as far as what these results mean for who will be the first selections come June 23rd, I'll refer back to what I wrote in the PickUp post linked to above. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Auburn power forward Jabari Smith is the betting favorite to go #1 at even money, and I think he would make sense for the Magic. With presumed starting power forward Jonathan Isaac missing the last two seasons since tearing his ACL and meniscus in August of 2020, they started big men Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba together for most of the year. Bamba is headed to restricted free agency, but Carter signed a solid 4 year, $50 million extension as a nice part of their core. Smith's sweet shooting would pair well next to Carter (and perhaps Bamba if re-signed) and he can play some center with Isaac off the bench, as well.
(Edit: I originally overlooked the extension that Carter signed when first writing this, and that is now corrected)
Orlando is not nearly in the contending stage to draft for need, of course, so they can just take whomever they think is the best player and figure out the pieces like those restricted free agents later. It is worth noting, though, that they have a dire need on the wing next to Franz Wagner and a nice group of young guards already between Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, and R.J. Hampton. That is why they were the main team that I thought could consider Sharpe if they won the top pick, and now here were are.
Ever since news broke that Sharpe was going to be eligible for this draft and not end up playing for Kentucky since he's about to turn 19 and graduated high school before the NBA season started, it was clear that he's the true wild card of this draft. Without college film to go on, he's going to need to rely on incredible workouts to really blow teams away, and that reminded me of how Hardaway ended up being Orlando's choice in 1993. His amazing pre-draft workout with them is the stuff of legend by now as it was impressive enough for them to trade down from #1, where Chris Webber was the prize of the class, to #3 to pick Hardaway instead.
With some similarities to both of those former Wildcats, I think that Sharpe might have the highest upside in this draft with the ability to play a Jayson Tatum-type of role. It would be a bold move to take him #1, but perhaps they could trade down to get assets along with their guy like in '93 or like the Celtics did with Tatum in 2017. It's hard to say with any certainty given the lack of college film, but based on the research that I've done, Sharpe has the potential to be a three-level scorer who could also pass and defend at a high level. Along with his tantalizing athleticism, he has crafty moves along to get to his spots inside the arc and a smooth stroke to get buckets outside of it, including with a dangerous side-step jumper. Defending at a consistent level with the intensity that he flashes and becoming more comfortable getting off of the ball early could take time, but he's shown that he can be a team player.
In a class that can leave you lukewarm at times, taking a chance on this kind of two-way star could be worth the risk for a team like Orlando.
No comments:
Post a Comment