Just How Bad Should the Warriors Want the Timberwolves to Be?

The Warriors beating the Timberwolves in back to back games this week was a little extra satisfying for the franchise and their fans since they own the latter's top-3 protected 1st round pick after last year's massive trade that centered around D'Angelo Russell and Andrew Wiggins. Minnesota now has the third worst record in the league at 4-13 with just one win more than bottom-dwelling Washington, so that pick has a ton a value. Naturally, the talk around the fanbase during these teams' meetings has been about the trade and whether or not they should be rooting for the Timberwolves to have the very worst record heading into the NBA Lottery.

I broke down the specifics about that deal in my Trade Deadline Recap, but how Golden State pivoted in the wake of Kevin Durant's free agency departure to Brooklyn is worth revisiting. Instead of losing him for nothing, having no cap space, and heading into the 2019-2020 season with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson with a torn ACL, and whomever they could possibly sign with the Mid-Level Exception of $9,258,000, they worked out a double sign-and-trade with Durant, Russell, and the Nets at the cost of a protected 1st round pick that merely became a 2025 2nd. Taking in a player through a sign-and-trade limited them to a hard salary cap, though, which meant that they had to trade away Iguodala and attach a 2024 1st round pick with lighter protections for Memphis to take on his salary. That's a bit of a hefty cost to sign DLo to a huge four year, $117,325,500 contract...but they knew it was the best possible asset play compared to the alternative that I laid out. 

After half of a season, Russell became Wiggins along with Minnesota's 2021 1st and 2nd round picks, with the former being top-3 protected before becoming unprotected next year. That 2nd rounder will likely be conveyed to Oklahoma City as part of the trade for Kelly Oubre, who was taken into the Trade Exception that was created from the Iguodala deal to take this full circle. Overall once KD decided to leave, Golden State essentially traded away Iguodala, a 2024 top-4 protected 1st, and a 2025 2nd for Wiggins, Oubre, and Minnesota's 2021 top-3 protected 1st. That's a nice tradeoff of picks way down the line for impactful value now, and the fact that the Timberwolves only get to keep their pick this year if it lands in the top-3 even though the lottery changed its format in 2019 to draw the top-4 picks is where things get interesting.

From 2005 to 2018, the team with the worst record had a 64.3% chance of being in the top-3 and 35.7% chance of being #4. The second worst team's odds were 55.8% for the top-3, and the third worst's were 46.9%. That's a far cry from the current system that flattened everyone's odds so that the three worst teams all have the same 40.17% chance of being in the top-3 and a 11.97% chance at #4. The worst team subsequently has a 47.86% chance at #5; the second worst splits those odds to 27.84% for #5 and 20.02% for #6; and the third worst splits them further to 14.84% for #5, 26% for #6, and 7.02% for #7. Thus, if the Timberwolves finishes in the bottom three, where exactly they land won't affect the chances of the pick conveying to the Warriors. Here's a visual look at the odds of the pick conveying from each "seed" in the Lottery draw:

It's pretty clear that Golden State's best possibility is if Minnesota finishes with the worst record because there's a 59.83% chance of landing the 4th or 5th pick, and the second worst record still has similar upside with the same odds of landing between picks 4 through 6. After those two, though, I think that the sweet spot might be the fifth worst record. From there, the chance of the pick conveying rises to 68.4% while still having a 59.1% chance of having a pick in the 4 to 7 range. Compare that to the third worst record (59.83% chance for both) and the fourth worst (63.37% chance to convey and 61.18% for a top-7 pick). After the fifth spot, the likelihood of receiving the pick increases as you'd expect, but the odds of a real value pick dwindle.

Of course, how strong of a draft this is will go a long way to determining that value. In my view, there are currently four elite prospects followed by two to four in a tier below them, and that's even with disappointing starts for some of the wings from the preseason lists like Keon Johnson from Tennessee and both B.J. Boston and Terrence Clarke from Kentucky. Here is how I'd personally rank them right now followed by where they're listed in ESPN's Top 100 and this month's mock draft on The Athletic:

1. Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State (#1, #1)
2. Jalen Green, G League Ignite (#3, #5)
3. Evan Mobley, USC (#2, #3)
4. Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga (#4, #2)
5. Jonathan Kuminga, G League Ignite (#5, #4)
6. Ziaire Williams, Stanford (#7, #6)
7. Scottie Barnes, Florida State (#9, #7) 
8. James Bouknight, Connecticut (#10, #8)

The Warriors have virtually no chance at landing Cunningham, who is running away with top pick status as a 6'7", 220 lbs point guard with similarities to Luka Doncic and even Ben Simmons to an extent. However, they have the possibility of landing someone like Green at #4, and the 6'5" wing has been my favorite prospect in this class ever since he took home MVP honors as a 16 year old for Team USA in the 2018 U-17 World Cup. He elected to skip college and instead kick off the new G League Ignite franchise for draft prospects, and the fact that all of his and Kuminga's games in the G League bubble next month will be on the ESPN networks is exciting for followers of the draft. 

That top tier of prospects reinforces the idea that it is in Golden Sate's best interest for Minnesota to finish with the worst record for the highest likelihood of possibly landing one of them at #4 or #5. After that, the fifth worst record gives them the most favorable odds at the pick conveying for someone from the next tier that is more fluid. It wouldn't be a disaster if it reverts to the 2022 draft with theoretically more upside by being unprotected, but aside from delaying the return in value, ESPN's mock draft shows that it is not currently projected to be quite as strong of a class. Things could change if high school players such as uber prospect Emoni Bates become eligible to declare again like it was once rumored for a "Double Draft," but that is no longer expected. Furthermore, who knows how good the Timberwolves could be next year as their young team gains more experience, and the fact that they've been missing their best player for the majority of the season has already been to the benefit of the Warriors. Hopefully Karl-Anthony Towns overcomes COVID-19 soon, but between that and another wrist injury, he has only played in four of 17 games so far. Russell has missed three games himself, and since Towns missed time with his first wrist injury last year, the two stars have only played a total of five games together since the trade. Their season is working in the Dubs' favor, and there should be no worries if it results in the worst record.