Friday, March 10, 2023

With a Month Left in the Season, Who Has the Best Odds of Landing Wembanyama?

I can't believe it's already March Madness time! As much fun as the NCAA and conference tournaments are themselves, usually this is peak draft prospect watching season. However, this is an unusual year with four of the very top players not playing in college, namely the best prospect in over a decade (or two), Victor Wembanyama. Watching the French phenom again this week after the World Cup qualifying break inspired me to dive into a topic I've been thinking about for a while: where do teams currently stand in the tanking race with such a gem atop this class and just a month until the season's final day on April 9th?

And if you haven't seen more than just highlights of Wembanyama, you should change that since all Metropolitans 92 games are streamed on NBA.com and the NBA app. It's a marvel to behold someone who is 7'4" (without shoes) move with such graceful coordination, and some of the plays he makes with his 8' wingspan are almost comically good. Before this season, I had only seen a little bit of him during the 2021 U19 World Cup, and I thought he was like a stretched out Anthony Davis. It's hard to find a real comparison for what kind of talent he is now, though, with such unique tools. The best I can do is kind of like a combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kristaps Porzingis with some of the former's freakish combination of athleticism, length, defensive competitiveness, and ball-handling to go with the latter's sheer size and shooting ability. Although Wemby is down to 29.5% on threes now with all of the tough shots he takes, the volume of 5.6 attempts per game and his 81.5% shooting on free throws are good indicators of how well he'll shoot once he has better teammates creating looks. I honestly think he could lead a team to the playoffs as a rookie if he joins a decent situation.

As a reminder, the teams with the three worst records have the same odds at each of the top-4 draft picks that are drawn on lottery night: a 14% chance for the 1st pick, 13.42% for the 2nd, 12.75% for the 3rd, and 11.97% for the 4th. After that, the chances of landing the #1 pick drop by 1.5% for each spot. The combination of this leveling out the odds starting with the 2019 lottery and the introduction of the Play-In Tournament in 2021 has resulted in less blatant tanking. More teams try to stay competitive with the outside chance at the playoffs now, and since it doesn't matter if you have the worst or third-worst record, there's no longer a race to the absolute cellar. Spots 5 through 9 having their chances of improving their pick go way up in this format does create some incentive for those teams to lose more down the stretch, but since those squads were at least winning enough to be in that position to begin with, the mileage may vary. But we'll get to that! Let's start at the bottom of the standings...or top depending on your perspective.

Tier 1: The Best Odds

Part of the reason why there may not be drastic tanking this year is that the three slots with the best odds are pretty much decided already after these teams did their work early. There could be some jostling over who ends up with picks 5, 6, or 7 in the unfortunate scenario that each of their 52.14% chance of a top-4 pick doesn't come to fruition, but with how the season has played out, they don't have to worry about winning "too much" the rest of the way.
 
Pistons: 15-52 with 7 home games and 8 road games remaining
Rockets: 15-51 with 9 home games and 7 road games remaining
Spurs: 16-49 with 9 home games and 8 road games remaining

They fall into the same bucket since all three have the same 14% chance of landing Wembanyama, although one team stands out as the best possible fit. Maybe it's just me, but it's just felt destined that he will land in San Antonio given their track record with international players and Hall of Fame big men taken 1st overall. Unsurprisingly, they have executed this rebuild in fine fashion with some nice young players, a ton of cap flexibility, and a bounty of draft assets thanks to the DeMar DeRozan, Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, and Jakob Poetl trades. There is a wide open spot for a star big man to bring it all together behind Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Malaki Branham, and the like. Ironically, Wemby used to play for the French team that Spurs legend Tony Parker owns, ASVEL Basket, before a somewhat acrimonious departure last summer for Mets 92 in order to be developed more as a featured player under France national team coach Vincent Collet.

In this fascinating deep dive on how Wembanyama's inner circle is preparing him for the NBA (the measures to stay healthy with certain stretches stood out in particular), there was actually an interesting tidbit that the renowned coach was stepping away from the team before the opportunity to coach this generational prospect came up. Similarly, if Gregg Popovich decides to continue coaching, that would make San Antonio an even more appealing landing spot for Wemby. Detroit and Houston, on the other hand, could give him reasons for both excitement and concern they landed the #1 pick, including their coaches possibly getting fired.

The Pistons having Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey as young creators to go with cap flexibility is obviously appealing, but their other upside prospects are all big men in Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and James Wiseman. Although Stewart has masqueraded as a power forward this year along with Marvin Bagley III and his contract, I was a bit confused at the Wiseman trade for this reason. None of them would prevent the selection of Wembanyama, of course, but they probably would need to trade one or two of them for less than they're worth when planning the long-term core.

Similarly, the Rockets have a ton of cap space now that their roster is composed mostly of rookie scale contracts, headlined by Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, and Alperen Sengun. The possible pairing with Green in pick and pops would be exciting, and at least either of the two bigs could fit next to a star center with their skill sets. One of them would be relegated to a bench role, though, and it could be a little clunky if Sengun had to defend on the perimeter consistently. Again, a key piece might need to be moved down the line, but they have a good amount of draft capital, namely from Brooklyn, to add to a package for a potential splash.

Tier 2: A Swarm of One

Hornets: 22-46 with 10 home games and 4 road games remaining

After starting a ghastly 7-23 start, they've stabilized a bit since mid-December with a simply mediocre 15-23 run. That coincides with when Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball got healthy for the most part, and they're now 17-25 when the former plays. The latter is now done for the year with another ankle injury as this team has been missing players all season, but they've still shown a lot of fight. They're actually 7-3 in their last 10 even with being sellers at the trade deadline and Ball going down during that time, so they've pretty much separated themselves from everyone around them. 

With six more wins than the #3 team and five fewer wins than the #5 team, it's a near certainty that they'll enter the lottery in the #4 spot with a 12.5% chance of moving up to #1. I do want to point out that rookie center Mark Williams is starting to live up to his status as a mid-first rounder ever since Mason Plumlee was traded 12 games ago with averages of 10.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, 0.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks in 26.8 minutes in that span. The 21 year old's overall numbers for the season are also strong with a 20.3 PER and per-36 minute averages of 16.7, 13, 1.4, and 2.2, so count them as another team like the Pistons and Rockets that doesn't need a big man yet would be ecstatic to add a certain one. 

Tier 3: This Could Get Ugly

These teams have been competitive, but even with the Play-In, they are going to be on the outside looking in sooner rather than later. Some of them have already started being, uh, extra cautious with holding out players since the All-Star Break. After Orlando, there's a large group within one win of each other, so there is some potential for some ugly lineups thrown out there in the last couple of weeks for better odds since it's a 10.5% chance at #1 for the 5th slot, 9% for the 6th, 7.5% for the 7th, 6% for the 8th, and then under 5% for the remaining slots.

Magic: 27-40 with 7 home games and 8 road games remaining

Like Charlotte, Orlando has turned things around after an atrocious 5-20 start, when they didn't have any experienced guards healthy to run the show, to now be 22-20 since December 7th. That's even with a current three game losing skid that's given them some cushion from the #6 slot in the current order, but there's potential for shenanigans if Play-In chasers drop out. At #5 right now, their 10.5% chance of moving up is looking solid, and they have a strong core in place with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner as arguably the best duo of second year or younger players in the league.

23 year old Wendell Carter Jr. continues the theme of already having a young center on the roster, but he's established himself enough to have real trade value around the league on a good contract that's descending. He also already has a ton of experience playing next to other 7-footers like the departed Mo Bamba and now Bol Bol, who actually has similarities to Wembanyama. With them also owning a couple of extra 1st round picks coming up, things could get prettttty interesting in Orlando if they won the lottery in back to back years like in 1992 and 1993. 
Pacers: 30-37 with 6 home games and 9 road games remaining

Unlike the previous two teams, Indiana's record has been on a downward trend as they're in a 7-19 stretch after starting 23-18. However, that was mostly due to Tyrese Haliburton getting injured for 10 games, and since they're 28-26 when the All-Star plays, they could move down the draft board. Sitting 1.5 out of the Play-In, it's likely that trying to win (albeit with a road-heavy schedule) will leave them at best a 9% chance of the #1 pick and potentially more in the 4.5-7.5% range. Wemby playing with a passer like Haliburton would be perfect, though, especially with an exciting threat on the wing like rookie Bennedict Mathurin. Myles Turner is yet another good center that's already in place, but the details of his recent renegotiation-and-extension gave the trade rumor favorite a very moveable number going forward. They also have two other 1st round picks in this draft (from Cleveland and Boston) to potentially pair with him in a trade.

Bulls: 30-36 with 8 home games and 8 road games remaining

I wanted to call out this fascinating situation because Chicago has desperately been in win-now mode and chasing the playoffs, but their pick that they owe to Orlando from the Nikola Vucevic trade is top-4 protected. Although a surprising win in Denver this week has them at 4-3 since the All-Star Break with Zach LaVine on a heater right now, piling up losses down the stretch could result in them a decent shot at keeping their selection, if not land Wembanyama. I don't expect them to hold guys out yet since they're only one game out of the Play-In, but they're right there with Indiana for the #6 slot that would have a 37.2% chance of a top-4 pick and a 9% chance at the grand prize. It would actually be sort of fitting if the pick they're sweating out due to that trade became Wemby right as Vuc heads to free agency. LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are of course on a much older timeline, but the incoming rookie could step right into a playoff-caliber team.

Jazz: 32-35 with 8 home games and 7 road games remaining

Of the other teams in the group of 30-32 wins, Utah stands out the most due to the changes in their team. This was expected to be a rebuilding year after trading away Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Royce O'Neale over the summer yet those deals left them with a large group of solid to good players that was too competitive to tank. They've leveled off after a surprising 10-3 start, though, and they are in a 5-9 stretch that coincides with trading away three of those useful players for little on-court production in return. Thursday's win against fellow bottom-dweller Orlando snapped a four game skid, but given how the standings have been laid out, they could easily slide up to the #6 slot that sits just two games away from them. 

As discussed above, that would give them a 9% chance of the #1 pick, and even if their downward trend isn't completely terrible, they should end up at least in the top-8 on lottery night with a 6% chance. There's also the long shot that if the Timberwolves miss the playoffs, their pick will have a 0.5-1.5% chance at becoming #1 for the Jazz thanks to the Gobert trade. Speaking of that deal, rookie Walker Kessler has replaced the Stifle Tower beautifully after Minnesota sent over his draft rights, so you can count Utah as another team that already has a center in place. They are 15-14 when Kessler starts, and in those games the 21 year old is averaging 10.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks in 27.6 minutes. For the season overall, he has a 21.1 PER with averages of 13.8 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per-36 minutes, so it would be interesting to see what they do if they got lucky with Wemby.

Pelicans: 32-34 with 9 home games and 7 road games remaining

New Orleans is another noteworthy team because in addition to their own chances, they can basically add the Lakers' odds since the Pelicans can swap picks thanks to the Anthony Davis trade. That swap is a lot less valuable now than it was looking earlier in the season when L.A. started 2-10 or when New Orleans was 26-17 as late as January 15th, but it does give them a better chance than their peers. The Pelicans have hardly had their star players together at the same time, and they're just 15-22 without Zion Williamson, who will miss at least two more weeks with his hamstring injury. Brandon Ingram left their big win against Dallas on Wednesday with an ankle injury, as well, so their postseason hopes could soon be hanging by a thread.

New Orleans is currently in the large cluster where their odds of the #1 pick could be anywhere 0.5% to potentially 9% depending on someone going on a streak one way or another. L.A. is tied with them at 32-34, and projections at Basketball Reference and FiveThirtyEight peg both of them for around 40 or 41 wins that could result in around a 1.5-3% chance each. It will definitely be worth watching what their combined chances end up being for Wembanyama because his defense and shooting would compliment Williamson so well.

Teams like the Thunder, Trail Blazers, Wizards, and Raptors have similar odds at the moment, but hanging around the Play-In race will likely leave them with a high end number of around a 3% chance of the #1 pick. Maybe one of them endures a long losing streak that results in a better chance to move up, but projections expect them to be in the 38-40 win range.

Of course, the lottery goes beyond the top pick, and I want to briefly touch on two of the other top prospects who aren't playing in college because the Overtime Elite playoffs just finished on Tuesday. The Thompson twins led the City Reapers to two sweeps after a 14-1 regular season, and each of them at some point over the past year have been considered the #3 prospect in this class behind Wembanyama and G League Ignite's Scoot Henderson (it might be top college player Brandon Miller now). I still need to dig deeper into their games, but we now have the final stat lines for the season. Given the small sample size, I combined the regular season and playoffs numbers, and it's worth remember that this is a lower level of competition than the G League or college.

Amen Thompson: 20 games, 29.5 minutes, 16.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 3.3 turnovers, 2.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks with 6.3/11.8 FGs (53.6%), 0.8/3 3Ps (26.7%), and 3.2/4.6 FTs (69.6%).

Ausar Thompson: 20 games, 29.1 minutes, 17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists 3.4 turnovers, 2.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks with 6.4/13.6 FGs (47.1%), 1.6/4.8 3Ps (33.3%), and 3.1/4.4 FTs (69.3%).

Both are listed at 6'7" with Amen, who is a minute older and more of the facilitator, weighing 202 lbs and Ausar, who hit the three off of a pass from his brother to win the championship, being 207 lbs. With reported 6'10" wingspans that they use to terrorize opposing backcourts defensively, there is a lot of two-way upside here with their explosive athleticism. The shooting numbers are the big thing for them, but it's encouraging that they both stepped it up in the playoffs. After making just 25% of his threes and 66.2% of his free throws in the regular season, Amen made 30%  and 77.4% in the five postseason games, even with a big increase to 6.2 attempts at the charity stripe after 4.1 in the regular season. Conversely, Ausar bombed away from deep with an increase from 3.8 three point attempts to 7.8 as he caught fire to make 38.5% of them after 29.8% before that. The Oakland natives are a year older than usual for their grade after turning 20 in January, but as we get closer to the draft, I'm excited to dive into the trajectory of their improvement over the course of the season.
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