Saturday, April 15, 2023

Quick Look at the 2023 NBA Playoffs

The playoffs are officially here! With the Play-In Tournament finished, I just wanted to note an interesting nugget for each team along with a quick prediction for the first round series. (Net ratings and offensive and defensive rankings are from NBA.com while player splits are from Basketball-Reference.com)

#1 Bucks (58-24, +3.4, #15 O, #4 D) vs. #8 Heat (44-38, -0.5,  #25 O, #9 D): Bucks in 5

Milwaukee had an interesting season with a 9-0 start followed by a 20-17 stretch, and then they reeled off a 16 game winning streak once Khris Middleton made his return from injury, with him playing in 13 of those contests. They finished 13-7 to close the season with some strategic resting along the way, but overall they were 25-8 when Middleton played.

Max Strus getting Miami off to a great start with four straight made 3's for their first 12 points in yesterday's do-or-die game continued the heater he's been on. Over the final 21 games of the regular season, Strus shot 40.7% 3's to average 9.5 points in 24 minutes after only shooting 33.5% his first 59 games. He moved into the starting lineup the last five of those games, but that puts even more pressure on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo defensively as the starting front court pairing going against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.

#2 Celtics (57-25, +6.7, #2 O, #2 D) vs. #7 Hawks (41-41, +0.1, #7 O, #22 D): Celtics in 4

After ranking just 16th in defensive rebounding rate at 72.5% last season as their one weak spot on the #1 defense, Boston improved that to 74.6% this season to lead the entire league. They also improved from 8th in 3's made, 9th in attempts, and 14th in 3P% to 2nd, 2nd, and 6th. As the only team to rank in the top-5 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, their +6.7 net rating leads the league by 1.1. Jayson Tatum gets a lot of credit in these areas as he set a career-high with a 22.5% defensive rebound rate to lead the team with 571 defensive boards (190 more than any teammate) while also setting career-highs with a team leading 240 3's and 686 attempts en route to leading the NBA with 2,225 total points.

It came in only 25 games after being traded, but Saddiq Bey's 40% on 3's in Atlanta would be a career-high. His shooting on the wing is important for some of the small-ball lineups new coach Quin Snyder prefers as Bey could play the role that his former Pistons teammate Bojan Bogdanovic played on the Jazz (not to be confused with current Hawks teammate Bogdan Bogdanovic). It'll be fascinating to watch which team leans big or small more with John Collins starting next to Clint Capela against Al Horford and potentially Robert Williams, who came off the bench for five games down the stretch before starting his last two. 

#3 76ers (54-28, +4.4, T-#3 O, #8 D) vs. #6 Nets (45-37, +1.1, T-#12 O, T-#15 D: 76ers in 6

Tyrese Maxey went back and forth between starting and coming off of the bench for much of the season after an early injury, but after he made four of seven 3's for 23 points in a two-point loss on Februrary 27th, the explosive young scorer was back starting the next game and hasn't looked back. That started a 20 game finishing kick where he averaged 22.5 points on an astounding 54.5%/52.6%/93.1% shooting line after 19.4 points on 45.1%/38%/81.3% in his first 40 games.

Everyone knows how wildly impressive Mikal Bridges has been since arriving in Brooklyn with 26.1 PPG in 27 games, but it didn't just start there as he finished his Phoenix career strong with 22.2 points, 4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and only 1.7 turnovers with 48.2%/37.3%/89.7% shooting in his last 15 games for them. Not counting the season finale when he only appeared for 4 seconds to keep his games played streak alive, Bridges averaged 25.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and only 1.8 turnovers with 47.8%/37.5%/89.5% shooting overall in 41 games from January 10th through April 7th. Now his first playoff series as the go-to option comes against his hometown team who infamously made a terrible trade on draft night in 2018 by sending him out as the #10 pick for the #16 pick, Zhaire Smith, and a 2021 1st that eventually became Tre Mann for OKC.

#4 Cavaliers (51-31, +5.6, T-#7 O, #1 D) vs. #5 Knicks (47-35, +2.8, T-#3 O, #19 D): Cavs in 6

It was a bit of a surprise that a playoff contender like Cleveland let go of a veteran leader like Kevin Love in the middle of the season, but they knew how good their front court already was. He played his last game for them on January 24th when they were outscored by 20 in his 12 minutes in a two-point loss, and they were 29-20 with a +4.4 net rating to that point. After that, they went 22-11 with a +7.4 net rating, with Evan Mobley continuing his exciting development. The young big went from averaging 15 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 blocks in his first 47 games to 17.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 blocks while playing the same amount of minutes.

New York was 30-26 with a +1.6 net rating before the Trade Deadline and then went 17-9 with a +5.4 net rating after the acquisition of Josh Hart really set their rotation in place. Their offensive rating jumped from 9th at 115.0 to leading the league at 121.2, and it really is remarkable that they finished tied for 3rd over the whole season given Tom Thibodeau's reputation as a defensive coach. It came in part because they were 2nd in the league with a 31.8% offensive rebounding rate. Interestingly, Cleveland ranked only 20th in defensive rebounding rate at 71.5% yet still had the #1 defense.

#1 Nuggets (53-29, +3.3, #5 O, T-#15 D) vs. #8 Timberwolves (42-40, +0.2, #23 O, T-#10 D): Nuggets in 5

After getting to 46-19 with a +4.6 net rating and essentially clinching the #1 seed after their 45th win came against #2 Memphis, Denver really coasted down the stretch with a 7-10 finish and -1.7 net rating as they rested players a lot. Whether or not they can turn things back on in a seemingly wide open West is one of the biggest questions of the playoffs. Something that really bears watching is the shooting of Aaron Gordon, as he had an All-Star worthy start to the season with 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 58.7%/39.7%/62.3% shooting in 49 games before the All-Star Break before nagging injuries contributed to just 13.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists with 50.2%/21.3%/55.7% shooting in the same amount of minutes over 19 games afterwards.

Minnesota has a lot going on between two different punches that resulted in Rudy Gobert suspended for their first Play-In game and Jaden McDaniels being out indefinitely with a fractured hand. Now that they're in the playoffs, the latter is obviously more important as they'll be missing their best perimeter defender. They were able to put McDaniels onto all kinds of matchups with his length and tenacity resulting in a 111.6 defensive rating when he is on the court compared to 114.0 when he isn't. It was a breakout third season for him all around with career-highs of 12.1 points, 51.7% from the field, and 39.8% from deep.

#2 Grizzlies (51-31, +4.0, #11 O, #3 D) vs. #7 Lakers (43-39, +0.7, #19 O, T-#12 D): Grizz in 7

Jaren Jackson Jr. is a potential Defensive Player of the Year, but his offensive explosion since just after his first All-Star Game is what really gives Memphis a postseason ceiling. Over his final 18 games, he averaged 23.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2.3 blocks with 53.2%/39.3%/79% shooting after putting up 16.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1 steal, and 3.3 blocks on 49.3%/33.8%/78.6% his first 45 games. With Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke injured, they're going to need everything that JJJ can give them.

Los Angeles practically remade their team at the Trade Deadline, and the result was a 18-8 finish with a +4.8 net rating that was 6th-best in the league. Injuries limited their new starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Anthony Davis to only log 77 minutes together over 7 games, but it had an eye-popping +20.6 net rating with a 6-1 record. 

#3 Kings (48-34, +2.6, #1 O, T-#23 D) vs. #6 Warriors (44-38, +1.7, #10 O, #14 D): Warriors in 6

Sacramento had remarkable health this season with all five of their starters (De'Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Domantis Sabonis) playing at least 73 games. Interestingly, that unit only played in 63 games together as the rare missed games occurred at different times, and they had only a solid +2.2 net rating in 900 minutes together. It resulted in a 38-25 record, though, as Fox's impressive play in close games helped them win a lot of nailbiters en route to him being named a finalist for the inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award. Whether or not pulling out close games is sustainable in the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2006 is another question, especially since the core of the team has understandably hardly played in the postseason. Fox of course has zero career playoff games since he's only played for the Kings while their other All-Star, Sabonis, only played in 13 over his first three years with OKC and Indiana. Barnes leads the way with 64 games that ironically all came with Golden State. 

The defending champions going 33-8 at home yet only 11-30 on the road remains inexplicable and is obviously a concern since they won't realistically have home-court advantage in any series. However, they do have some history on their side as they have won at least one road game in every playoff series in the Steve Kerr era, a period in which they also have not lost a series to a team in the West. It's also worth noting that although 45 of the 46 NBA champions since the merger had a top-three record in their conference, the lone exception was the reigning champion Rockets in 1995, who were a 6 seed. And of course, Golden State is also a 6 seed this season as they try to defend their title.

#4 Suns (45-37, +2.2, #14 O, #7 D) vs. #5 Clippers (44-38, +0.5, T-#17 O, #17 D): Suns in 6

It's a limited sample size of only eight games, but Phoenix is undefeated with Kevin Durant in the lineup as he's shown yet again why he's arguably the most malleable superstar ever.  In 269 minutes with him on the floor, they had a 117.7 offensive rating and 107.0 defensive rating, which would've ranked 2nd and 1st in the league over the whole season. He is the first player in NBA history to shoot 55-40-90 in a season, per ESPN's Kirk Goldsberry, and while it came in only 47 games, his overall season averages between the Nets and Suns were 29.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.4 blocks with 56%/40.4%/91.9% shooting. In total, his teams have won 25 of the last 27 games he's played in, and there's a reason the Suns are the betting favorites to come out of the West despite being the 4 seed.

After missing all of last season with a torn ACL, Kawhi Leonard was eased back into action and played limited minutes even with him only playing in five of Los Angeles' first 24 games. He understandably wasn't quite up to his standard to start, but he shook the rust off around the change in calendar to get back to his usual Terminator self. In his final 35 games from January 8th on, Leonard averaged 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, and only 1.8 turnovers with a ridiculous 52.6%/46.8%/89.7% shooting line. He missed the 2021 Western Conference Finals matchup between these teams, and now Paul George could miss this series with his own knee injury.
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