Last week: 10-6
Season total: 16-15
I had the 49ers +2.5 last night (I swear, I can even show a screenshot of my pick'em pool!) in what had to be the wildest Thursday Night Football game ever before the phantom offensive pass interference call stopped a comeback for the ages. San Francisco's defense looked gassed on just four days of rest after being on the field for 82 plays the previous game, but credit is due to Jared Goff for continuing his second year leap with an impressive performance back in his native Bay Area. Like I wrote before, the situation he's in now is basically a complete 180 from last season with an actual coaching staff, offensive line, and receivers.
Ravens -4.5 "at" Jaguars (in London)
An already decimated offensive line losing All-Pro guard Marshall Yanda is a concern for Baltimore. So is run-stuffing defensive lineman Brandon Williams being out this week. Starting running back Terrance West is questionable, as well. And you know what? You still can't convince me to back Blake Bortles against this ferocious defense in a game away from home, even if Jacksonville has been playing across the pond the last couple of years.
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| I have a feeling we'll be seeing more Ravens defenders with the ball in their hands. |
I forgot how fast Atlanta is in a dome, on both sides of the ball. You know where Detroit plays? In a dome. Ziggy Ansah will have a bit more difficulty racking up sacks against Jake Matthews than Ereck Flowers, and although I'd expect their 'backs to rack up catches in this one, the Lions' lack of a consistent running game will catch up to them eventually.
Colts +1.5 versus Browns
Getting Indy at a time when Andrew Luck is still out provides Cleveland with a rare time that they'll be favored, but they are on the road. The Colts held their own at home last week in that overtime loss to a better opponent, so I'm counting on another week of Jacoby Brissett getting acclimated to his new team paying off.
Eagles -4.5 versus Giants
Things won't get much better for Flowers and New York's poor offensive line this week given how tough Philly's defensive front is. Shutdown corner Janoris Jenkins possibly coming back this week could make things difficult for Carson Wentz and the Eagles, but they look like the much more complete team so far despite playing on the road both games.
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| Eli Manning is going to get to know the Eagles defense real well. |
Like last week, I would have went with Minnesota if Sam Bradford was playing, but as they say, the NFL is a quarterback driven league. Their defense and Dalvin Cook's carries might still be able to win it for them at home, especially since I still don't trust Tampa's offensive line, but you have to go with Jameis Winston over Case Keenum here.
Bears +7.5 versus Steelers
Speaking of the Vikings game last week, Pittsburgh still didn't look completely sharp in that game, and now they're back on the road laying more than a touchdown. Right tackle Marcus Gilbert and outside linebacker TJ Watt are already ruled out while defensive end Stephon Tuitt is questionable, so even if I believe they'll still win, I still don't have faith in them away from Heinz Field against the spread.
Jets +6.5 versus Dolphins
Here's another home 'dog for you as there's a whopping nine of them this week (not counting the London game), and even though this would be a stay-away since I don't expect New York to win, I thought they've looked competent at times the first two games. Miami continued their magic in one-score games under Adam Gase last week, and I'm expecting more of the same here on the road, with the possibility of it being a backdoor cover against a questionable secondary.
Saints +5.5 at Panthers
The Saints' schedule doesn't get any easier here, but they may have found an offense that won't obliterate them now that Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen for 8 weeks and center Ryan Kalil for at least this week. New Orleans ruling out first round pick and shadow corner Marshon Lattimore today gives me pause, but I don't think they'll go 0-3. Call it a hunch if you want, but they can get some pressure on Cam Newton in this one.
Broncos -2.5 at Bills
I wasn't completely confident in this one since it's Denver's first road game, and Buffalo is much better at home. However, great defenses travel, and I have a hard time seeing the Bills move the ball consistently, especially with left tackle Cordy Glenn out. Given how much improved Trevor Siemian looks and C.J. Anderson's return to form thus far, I'm comfortable with such a small spread here.
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| When Anderson is running like this, watch out. |
Conversely, this spread is bordering on too much considering how well Houston's defense played in Foxborough during the playoffs. Deshaun Watson is a rookie quarterback on the road against Bill Belichick, though, and aside from the same sideline throws to DeAndre Hopkins over and over again, he still looks limited. Throw this in a teaser and thank me later.
Titans -2.5 versus Seahawks
Both teams took care of business last week, but while Seattle narrowly escaped with a win at home thanks to Russell Wilson's continuous Houdini act, Tennessee pulled away on the road with 31 second half points. The Titans' strong front seven should have Wilson on his heels yet again in Nashville, and Derrick Henry looks more than capable of filling in if DeMarco Murray's hammy keeps him out.
Bengals +9.5 at Packers
Like Houston coming off ten days rest, this line is surprisingly high for Cincinnati, but in this case I'm taking the points due to how banged up Green Bay is. I almost changed my Packers pick last week at the last minute due to both starting tackles being out, and then they lost Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Mike Daniels during the game. Right tackle Brian Bulaga should be back along with Nelson, but Daniels is a huge loss on the defensive line. Newly promoted offensive coordinator Bill Lazor was solid in his Miami stint, particularly the first year, so here's hoping the coaching change sparks the offense enough to keep this competitive.
Chiefs -3.5 at Chargers
So the thing about my pick of over 7.5 wins for the Chargers is that I forgot that they are a cursed franchise who basically plays 16 road games, especially now that they moved to LA. Their luck in one-score games is bound to turn around eventually, but it probably won't be against this stacked KC team that is 16-8 in the division under Andy Reid, including 6-0 on the road the last two years. With the rushing totals LA has given up so far, Kareem Hunt should continue to build on his Rookie of the Year campaign.
Big day for Kareem Hunt:— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 17, 2017
First game at Arrowhead ✅
First touchdown at Arrowhead ✅ pic.twitter.com/UV3xvrzj5D
Raiders -3.5 at Redskins
Being on the road in prime time will be a good test for Oakland, and I think they'll pass it thanks to controlling the line of scrimmage on offense and an opposing passing game that's still trying to find itself. Maybe this is the game Kirk Cousins gets in sync with Terrelle Pryor against the recently turned receiver's original team, but first round pick Gareon Conley looked good in his debut and could make life tough for his fellow Buckeye. Give me Derek Carr attacking these safeties and a stronger ground game despite the -3.5.
Cardinals +3.5 versus Cowboys
This one might have been my hardest pick of the week, but Arizona is finally at home and got some mojo back from the second half on last week. Carson Palmer should be able to take advantage of Dallas' shaky pass defense, and Patrick Peterson should match up well with Dez Bryant on the other side. Although the Cardinals likely won't be able to shut down Ezekiel Elliott like Denver did, their front seven is nothing to sneeze at either. I like the straight-up upset here.
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