Saturday, September 30, 2017

2017 NFL Week 4 Picks

"What is...overthinking it, Alex?"


I'm going to keep it simple with the rest of these.
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 25-22

Saints -2.5 "at" Dolphins (in London)

I don't think either defense is that good, so give me the Drew Brees offense over Jay Cutler's, especially coming off an impressive road win.

Titans -1.5 at Texans

I continue to think Tennessee is the most well-rounded team in their division, and although Houston impressed on the road last week, they've yet to put together an overall complete game.

Bengals -3.5 at Browns

After another brutal loss, this is where Cincy gets their first win after improving every so slightly each week. As expected, OC Bill Lazor stayed committed to his best running back Joe Mixon and fed A.J. Green, whom Cleveland has no one to cover, so I'm looking for a breakout game here.

Vikings -2.5 versus Lions

After being scared off by Case Keenum's first start that was on the road, he inspired a lot more confidence at home last week, and I'm comfortable going with Minnesota's defense and running game anyway.



Falcons -8.5 versus Bills

This line might seem high after Atlanta barely escaped in Detroit, but they're back at home in their fancy new stadium against a Buffalo team that struggles to score on the road. As long as Matt Ryan takes better care of the ball this week, the Bills shouldn't pose too much of a threat.

Steelers -2.5 at Ravens

I know I've only stuck with the favorites thus far and Baltimore is much better at home, but the injuries are mounting for the Ravens. With defensive lineman Brent Urban going on IR and Brandon Williams still out, they're going to have a hard time stopping Le'Veon Bell and the running game here.

Rams +8.5 at Cowboys

In an odd bit of scheduling, both teams that played on Thursday are traveling to teams that played on Monday, and in the past three seasons, the team with four more days of rest are 7-2 against the spread. LA's offense continues to look legit, so they should score enough points against this shorthanded Dallas defense to stay in the game.

Jaguars -3.5 at Jets

Maybe this game won't be as bad as expected after both teams had convincing wins last week, and you can at least count on Jacksonville's defense showing up. If Blake Bortles can play as well here as he does in London, this team should always have a chance.

Patriots -8.5 versus Panthers

Another week, another large home spread for New England against a mobile quarterback with question marks. Cam Newton isn't looking right and will be throwing to a banged up Kelvin Benjamin with Greg Olsen already out, so this could be a get-right spot for the Pats defense.

Chargers -0.5 versus Eagles

The injuries to Philly's tough defense make it hard to trust them on the road, so even though LA doesn't have a home field advantage, I like them to finally get on the board here. Losing a corner of Jason Verrett's abilities hurts, but the Eagles also lost Darren Sproles as an important part of their passing game.

49ers +7.5 at Cardinals

Continuing to pick San Francisco each week probably isn't the wisest choice given that they're rebuilding, but they've covered the last two weeks. Besides the stat above about TNF teams playing MNF opponents, I like the chances of DeForest Buckner and their young defensive line harassing Carson Palmer all day.

Giants +3.5 at Buccaneers

I should have stuck with my first instinct and stayed wary of Tampa last week. Despite being on the road, I like how New York's defense matches up with the Bucs' threats, so they can definitely get their first win here.

Broncos -2.5 versus Raiders

Speaking of matching up well, Denver has one of the best sets of corners in the league to counter an Oakland offense that relies so heavily on its wide receivers. After the lamest of taunting penalties cost the Broncos a potential chance to tie the game last week, I think they bounce back at home.


Seahawks -13.5 versus Colts

No matter how well each team played last week, I could see this line coming a mile away. A questionable offense with a young quarterback in the inhospitable environment of CenturyLink field in prime time? No thank you.

Chiefs -6.5 versus Redskins

This spread was a little more surprising considering how well Washington played against last week's AFC West team in prime time, but you have to take anything less than a touchdown at Arrowhead at this point. Kansas City looks like the best team in the league with an offense that generate big plays, a defense that creates turnovers, and a special teams unit that is consistently among the league leaders in terms of Football Ousiders DVOA.

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