Saturday, October 7, 2017

2017 NFL Week 5 Picks

Once again, I hate Thursday night games. Can we talk about how Jameis Winston should have been called for intentional grounding in the end zone on the first play after Bill Belichick surprisingly punted from the 34 yard line? Either a safety or field goal there turns the 5 point win into a cover, but no, my hesitation around the Pats defense proved not to be overthinking it this time. On the other hand, that incredible backdoor cover by the Chiefs on Monday night will go down in Scott Van Pelt's Bad Beats lore, so I can't complain.
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 34-29

 Titans -2.5 at Dolphins

I'm changing this one in the morning if Marcus Mariota is ruled inactive, but he got some practice work in throughout the week. If he can give it a go, Tennessee should feast on an unimposing defense, and Miami's inept offense is a bounce back opportunity after the Titans defense was walloped last week.

49ers +1.5 at Colts

San Francisco may be 0-4, but they've lost by just eight points combined the last three games and have covered the spread each time as a result. After improving their point differential at the end of regulation each game, here's their chance to actually be ahead when the clock strikes 0:00 since Andrew Luck is out at least another week. Having the much more athletic Solomon Thomas switch to the Leo defensive end instead of Arik Armstead (as initially expected when he was drafted) has the 49ers pass rush continuing to improve, so Jacoby Brissett might not have the time to put up enough points here.

Lions -3.5 versus Panthers

Despite being 3-1, I still don't trust either of these teams, but Detroit has been more consistent and is at home. Anthony Zettel has provided another pass rushing threat with Ziggy Ansah, and that's helped their pass coverage become a pleasant surprise, giving me some confidence in the cover. Cam Newton looked back to his MVP self for at least one game, but until he proves it consistently, I'm inclined to think it was more due to the struggling New England defense.

Bills +3.5 at Bengals

 Although I like Cincy to win at home, you can't confidently lay more than a field goal with a team who has only just gotten their first win, against the Browns no less. Buffalo is 3-1 after all, and their defense has proven stingy under rookie head coach Sean McDermott. Give me the points.

 Chargers +3.5 at Giants

 Whenever any of the quarterbacks from the '04 draft play, my dad and I talk about which has had the better career, and it's a fun debate (I'd favor Big Ben, who actually fell to #11). Now the passers who were traded for each other, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, are leading similarly disappointing teams with poor offensive lines and underachieving defenses, and you would not have expected them to both be looking for their first wins here. I'll favor Melvin Gordon over rookie Wayne Galman in the running game to give LA a good chance here, so once again, give me the points.

 Cardinals +6.5 at Eagles

Philly has proven to be one of the better teams in the NFC, but their banged up secondary is still susceptible to the big plays that Arizona's offense is predicated on. Fletcher Cox remaining out makes me feel better about the weak Cardinals offensive line that's already on its third left guard, so with their defense also matching up well, I think this will be a close one. One more time, give me the points.

Steelers -8.5 versus Jaguars

This is often a game I might take the points with Jacksonville's defense, as well, but they showed a real weakness on the ground last week (even if Bilal Powell should've been down on that 75 yard run). Le'Veon Bell is likely to take advantage of that, and facing Ben Roethlisberger at Heinz Field will be a good test for the star Jags corners, Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. And like most weeks, I can't back Blake Bortles against this defense.
Browns -1.5 versus Jets

This is it, Cleveland's best chance at a win! Consider this also a bet against the woebegone Jets winning three in a row, especially with this one on the road. #1 pick Myles Garrett making his debut should provide a boost to the Browns defense that has some talent if they can put it together against this mediocre New York offense.

Seahawks +2.5 at Rams

I'm impressed with LA's new, young offense like everyone else, but I still can't believe they're favored against this veteran Seattle squad. Russell Wilson hasn't had the most success against the Rams, but this is a good chance to change that with Wade Phillips' defense hemorrhaging points lately. The matchup between Bobby Wagner and the rejuvenated Todd Gurley will be fun to watch on the other side, and I'm willing to bet the running back won't have another big play through the air here.
Ravens +3.5 at Raiders

E.J. Manuel looked much better than expected after Derek Carr got hurt, but I still can't trust him against this tough Baltimore secondary. Sometimes I don't have to write much more than that.

Packers +2.5 at Cowboys

Like the Seahawks being underdogs, I was pretty surprised by this line when it came out. Green Bay's defense looks improved from when they went into Dallas and won in the playoffs, and with the extra rest after their dominant Thursday win, I think the banged up offense will be ready to take advantage of a nonthreatening Cowboys defense.

Chiefs -1.5 at Texans

What will Deshaun Watson and Houston do for an encore after that stunning display last week? Well, with Justin Houston and Kansas City's stout defense coming to town against a questionable group of blockers, I'm not counting on much. Until the Chiefs show any big weaknesses, I'll continue to ride them, especially with reasonable spreads like this.

Vikings -2.5 at Bears

 Dalvin Cook's torn ACL is a massive loss, but it sounds like Sam Bradford will be returning this week to help boost the offense on the road. And although it makes some sense to start the Mitchell Trubisky era with the extra rest after TNF, he still doesn't have any good wide receivers and is facing a great defense to start. I don't like his chances.
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