Friday, October 13, 2017

2017 NFL Week 6 Picks

Don't look now, but my self-deprecating reverse jinx actually worked to give me just my second Thursday night win in six weeks. Carson Wentz might not be able to keep making plays on 3rd and long for the whole season, but when the defense plays that well, he won't always have to. After basically treading water in my picks pool the last few weeks, hopefully this start will get things going.

Last week: 7-7
Season total: 41-36

 Packers -3.5 at Vikings

 What else is there left to say about Aaron Rodgers, really? Green Bay's tackle situation is still a concern when facing a defense like this, but as he showed on last week's game-winning drive, he can escape with the best of them. Furthermore, rookie Aaron Jones showed why #DraftTwitter was so high on him and he was a top add on fantasy waiver wires last week, so Rodgers might not have to do it all himself. I'm excited to see similar young running back Jerick McKinnon finally getting more work for Minnesota, but with Stefon Diggs rule out due to a groin issue again, their offense could struggle to keep up.

 Texans -9.5 versus Browns

 I'm still optimistic about young DeShone Kizer's long term upside once he learns more from the sideline, but Deshaun Watson is already showing why he should have been the first quarterback taken in April. Am I above going down narrative street with the cliche that Cleveland will regret trading with Houston for that pick? Nope, I'm definitely not. Losing both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus could hurt the Texans defense enough to keep this close, but Hue Jackson is in the midst of a 2-24 head coaching stretch exactly for calls like that 4th and 2 failure in a game they should've won last week.

 Falcons -10.5 versus Dolphins

 Jay Cutler is 58 of 98 for just 476 yards with 2 TD's and 3 interceptions in his last three games despite great passing matchups and openly admitted when signed out of retirement that he's out of shape. But it's a good thing he knows the offense from his one year with Adam Gase unlike Colin Kaepernick! Please. Oh, and he's now on the road against a team coming off a bye week that helped them get healthy, including star pass rusher Vic Beasley.

49ers +9.5 at Redskins

 Last week broke San Francisco's streak of covers despite going to overtime, but I like them to keep it close again here with Reuben Foster and Eric Reid likely returning from injury to provide reinforcements on defense. Even after the bye week, Washington will be missing Josh Norman in coverage, Rob Kelley in the running game, and possibly even Trent Williams as their best offensive lineman, so this could become a pass-heavy shootout that ends up surprising some folks.

 Ravens -6.5 versus Bears

 An inexperience rookie quarterback is making his first road start in Baltimore against Football Outsiders' #2 pass defense? Yes, please. The Ravens might give up some rushing yards with Brandon Williams still out, but I can see them generating another 5 turnover game in this spot. Joe Flacco starting to look like a capable quarterback again as he gets healthier doesn't hurt either.

Saints -4.5 versus Lions

 This line is a couple points higher than I expected, but New Orleans is 8-1 against the spread after bye weeks and looked to be a team on the rise before the break. Their unceremonious dumping of the miscast Adrian Peterson could help the offense start firing on all cylinders with starter Mark Ingram and pass-catching 'back Alvin Kamara in more settled roles, and they should get slot maven Willie Snead back this week, as well. Detroit's offense could certainly gain consistency against a D that doesn't intimidate anyone, but Matthew Stafford might not be able to create plays after he was hobbled by a couple of leg injuries last week.

 Patriots -9.5 at Jets

 I'd say I learned my lesson about laying points with New England's defense, but come on. It's the Jets, whom I still don't believe in after three of the least impressive wins you'll. Rob Gronkowski is back after being held out on the short week, and Bill Belichick had extra time to prepare for this. Don't overthink it.

 Jaguars -2.5 versus Rams

 Jacksonville currently leads the league in point differential. Seriously. Even though they have been an every other week team that's hurt me, I'm rolling with them because their defense has even exceeded my hopeful expectations and their plan to hide Blake Bortles is working. LA went away from Todd Gurley for some reason last week, and if that happens again, they could be in serious trouble targeting Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye.

Cardinals +2.5 versus Buccaneers

 Inspired by Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal of The Ringer, I've been trying to guess the lines before making my picks, and this game was among the ones I was right on when the spreads came out...before it went in the complete opposite direction right away. Give me the home 'dog after they opened as favorites, especially when Tampa's shaky secondary has to travel to face a pass heavy offense that Carson Palmer can still execute when given decent protection.

 Raiders -3.5 versus Chargers

 Here's to Derek Carr rallying the team to break their three game losing streak in his return from injury early. Oakland's defense has actually held up decently enough, so if their leader's return can help get Amari Cooper and the offense going, I like them taking care of business at home.

 Chiefs -3.5 versus Steelers

 Normally I'd be weary about this line being surprisingly low for a 5-0 team at home in Arrowhead, but Ben Roethlisberger just doesn't look right. Maybe this is a game they ride Le'Veon Bell to try and take the crowd out of the game, but like I said last week, I'm rolling with the Chiefs until further notice since they can beat you in multiple ways.

Broncos -11.5 versus Giants

 As if it wasn't already time to panic in New York, they lost their top four wide receivers to injury, with all but Sterling Shepard out for the rest of the season. It would've already been hard to envision them putting up a ton of points in Denver with Odell Beckham Jr., but now it almost seems impossible. With the Broncos coming off a bye and the odd Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie suspension piling on, I'm not even worried about the "nobody believes in us!" potential. (Shoot, is that playing into it even more? Let's move on.)

 Titans -1.5 versus Colts

 I hate to keep doing this, but the pick is contingent on Marcus Mariota playing. Matt Cassel averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt and held onto the ball for six sacks with a fumble lost, and Tennessee still almost won last week. Their strong defensive front could give Indy's offensive line issues, so if Mariota is back to provide anything on offense, they should be in good shape at home.
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