Tuesday, October 17, 2017

2017-18 NBA Opening Night Power Rankings Part 1

Well what do you know: with the new elongated schedule, opening night is already here in the middle of October! It feels like just last month that the Warriors completed their dominant 16-1 postseason run, but after one of the most wild offseasons in recent memory, I can't wait to see how the new-look teams perform. My thoughts on each move are pretty well covered in my draft recap and two-part offseason tracker, so I'll keep things short here with an interesting statistic or two for each team, starting with the top half of the league due to who's opening tonight. Last year's final records and points per 100 possessions from NBA.com are listed for reference, but of course, a lot has certainly changed since then.

 1. Golden State Warriors (1st in the West) 67-15
Point Differential: +11.6 (1st), Offense: 113.2 (1st), Defense: 101.1 (2nd)
And despite all of the maneuvering around the league, the defending champs are still the overwhelming favorites to repeat. To follow up on my hot take from June, I'll add the more reasonable prediction that Kevin Durant will join Stephen Curry with a second MVP as this team makes a strong case for the most talented group ever. The seemingly only flaw in his Warriors debut season was his penchant for pull up 3's: he shot just 24 of 92 (26.1%) in those situations compared to 91 of 215 (42.3%) on catch and shoot 3's, per NBA.com tracking. There's room for positive regression to the mean there since he made 194 of 489 (39.7%) pull ups the previous three seasons, and of course, the biggest shot of his career showed that the regular season shooting was likely an aberration.


 2. Houston Rockets (2nd in the West) 55-27 
Point Differential: +5.8 (3rd), Offense: 111.8 (2nd), Defense: 106.4 (T-17th)

 The Chris Paul trade made them perhaps the most fascinating team to watch due to the dynamic between him and James Harden, and the additions of versatile defensive forwards P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute provide strong depth to throw at opposing offenses. Besides how the star guards' assist totals are affected by playing together (ranked 1st and 4th in assists per game), I'm curious to see how Paul's mid-range game meshes on a team that famously devalued the shot since 41% of his field goal attempts came from that range last year, shooting an excellent 50.9%.

3. San Antonio Spurs (3rd in the West) 61-21 
Point Differential: +7.2 (2nd), Offense: 108.8 (7th), Defense: 100.9 (1st)

 Add LaMarcus Aldridge's surprising extension after his much maligned end of the season to the recent list of odd decisions that takes them out of the free agency race next summer despite their sneaky appeal to the top stars. Perhaps his recent sit down with Gregg Popovich focused on the idea of him playing as a lone big man more often since they let Dewayne Dedmon leave, signed Rudy Gay, and have a guard orientated roster. That might be more of a curve ball for the playoffs, though, because Pau Gasol was re-signed to a larger deal than expected, and they were 30-9 when he started last year. Tony Parker coming back from ruptured quad some time in December at age 35 is a concern, but their main lineup of him, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Aldridge, and Gasol had a +7.4 net rating in 392 minutes. Plugging Patty Mills in for Parker actually bumped that up +24.1, albeit in only 86 minutes, while second year guard Dejounte Murray only logged 6 minutes with that group.

 4. Boston Celtics (1st in the East) 53-29
Point Differential: +2.7 (8th), Offense: 108.6 (8th), Defense: 105.5 (12th)

 Four. That's how many players are left from last season's #1 seeded team, so there aren't a ton of stats that will be predictive of this coming season. The group around Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and Marcus Smart has a lot more potential, however, with a good chance that Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and #3 pick Jayson Tatum make multiple All-Star teams in the coming years in the (L)East. With Marcus Morris banged up to start the year, it looks like the future is now with Tatum getting the starting nod for the opener in a smaller lineup than if bruising center Aron Baynes got the nod next to Horford. How Brown does in his expanded role is what I'm watching for, though, as his shooting line improved to 45.9%/40.4%/69.8% in the 20 games he started, during which they went 13-7, compared to 45.1%/30.1%/67.2% off the bench. His post-All Star Break splits were also encouraging with 49.4%/37.9%/60.5% shooting, including 24 of 60 (40%) on catch and shoot 3's, so the athletic second year wing should be just fine next to his more heralded teammates.

 5. Cleveland Cavaliers (2nd in the East) 51-31
Point Differential: +3.2 (7th), Offense: 110.9 (3rd), Defense: 108.0 (T-22nd)

 The fact that they were 0-8 when LeBron James didn't play is one of many ways to show how reliant they are on their franchise player, and this potential last season before he leaves again in free agency could be tumultuous with Isaiah Thomas, the replacement for would-be-heir Irving, looking at nearly half the season gone by the time he returns in January. Although they did well in that trade, his hip injury being more severe than initially thought further clouds the team's future with him in a contract year, and the late addition of Dwyane Wade brings them to eight players who could leave next summer. Starting a versatile three-and-D forward like Jae Crowder in a small lineup instead of Tristan Thompson makes given the lack of consistent shooting from James, Wade, and the fill-in for Thomas, Derrick Rose, but I do wonder how well Kevin Love can anchor a defense at center considering the penetration those guards will give up.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder (4th in the West) 47-35
Point Differential: +0.8 (11th), Offense: 105.0 (17th), Defense: 105.1 (10th)

 My post on them after the Carmelo Anthony trade already went pretty in-depth, but today's news that strong two-way contract addition P.J. Dozier will wear #35 reminded me of something. Should the team eventually retire Durant's number? Counting his rookie stats in Seattle, he left the franchise ranked 1st in points per game, PER, Win Shares per 48, 3's attempted and made, and free throws made and attempted; 2nd in total points, Win Shares, and defensive rebounds; 3rd in field goals made and attempted; and 4th in blocks and minutes played.

7. Washington Wizards (4th in the East) 49-33
Point Differential: +1.8 (9th), Offense: 108.5 (9th), Defense: 106.9 (20th)

 Consider this a bet on continuity in Scott Brooks' second year as coach since matching Otto Porter's offer sheet and extending John Wall meant the core of this team is locked up moving forward. When those two and Bradley Beal are on the floor together, they had a +7.0 net rating in 2,026 minutes, and their overall starting lineup with Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat included was a +8.1 in 1,347 minutes. So long as Morris' recovery from sports hernia surgery doesn't linger past the first month of the season, this team can put up a fight with anyone in the East.

8. Toronto Raptors (3rd in the East) 51-31 
Point Differential: +4.2 (5th), Offense: 109.8 (6th), Defense: 104.9 (T-8th)

 I initially had them higher, but then I remembered that due to Kyle Lowry's injury, Cory Joseph actually started 21 of the games when they went 18-7 after the All-Star Break. Now he's gone, along with Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker, so even with a full year of Serge Ibaka and the great value in reinforcements C.J. Miles, OG Anunoby, and K.J. McDaniels, I dropped them ever so slightly. A full year of newly extended Norman Powell getting more opportunity could change that if he keeps up the average of 15.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 and 49.8%/39.7%/77.6% shooting in 18 starts from last year.

 9. Milwaukee Bucks (5th in the East) 42-40
Point Differential: -0.2 (T-16th), Offense: 106.9 (13th), Defense: 106.4 (T-17th)

They'll have Khris Middleton healthy from the start this season, and to follow up on the stat I used last year of the team going 17-6 with him in the starting lineup, their projected top unit of Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Thon Maker had a +11.9 net rating in 135 minutes. How Jabari Parker does with that group, likely in Snell's place, once he recovers from his torn ACL in the middle of the year could have an impact on his restricted free agency market this summer.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves (5th in the West) 31-51
Point Differential: -1.1 (T-20th), Offense: 108.1 (10th), Defense: 109.1 (T-26th)

 With added touches once the now departed Zach LaVine tore his ACL on February 3rd, Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 28.4 points, 12.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks with 59.2%/41.0%/86.5% shooting in 32 games as a 21 year old. Andrew Wiggins, who only turned 22 during that stretch, averaged 25.9, 3.7, 2.1, 1.3, and 0.3 with a 45.3%/37.9%/77.8% shooting line. With All-Star Jimmy Butler and defensive stalwart Taj Gibson added to help instill Tom Thibodeau's scheme in his second year and Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford solid back court veterans, this should be the year they reach expectations. After all, once you get past the clear top four teams, the stacked Western Conference is wide open.

 11. Denver Nuggets (6th in the West) 40-42
Point Differential: +0.5 (T-12th), Offense: 110.0 (5th), Defense: 110.5 (29th)

 Overall they were 32-27 when Nikola Jokic started, but as Kevin Pelton noted, they were 29-22 when he was at center rather than miscast at power forward next to Jusuf Nurkic. Although swapping out Danilo Gallinari for Paul Millsap made them especially heavy on power forwards, it's definitely an improvement, especially for the defense. Adding veteran Richard Jefferson yesterday could be a sneakily good move given that Wilson Chandler was their only true small forward and his injury history, and I have to think the surprising cut of Jameer Nelson's guaranteed $4,736,050 means their pleased with the development of Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay as point guards.

 12. Miami Heat (6th in the East) 41-41
Point Differential: +1.1 (10th), Offense: 105.2 (16th), Defense: 104.1 (5th)

 They mostly brought the band back together after their incredible 30-11 finish to the season, with Kelly Olynyk and #14 pick Bam Adebayo replacing Luke Babbitt and Willie Reed. Although last year's surprise starter Rodney McGruder will miss half the year, Justise Winslow and the shrewdly extended Josh Richardson are now healthy. Dion Waiters staying on the court might actually be the most important part of their season because they were 26-17 when he started.

 13. Portland Trail Blazers (7th in the West) 41-41
Point Differential: -0.5 (18th), Offense: 107.8 (11th), Defense: 107.8 (21st)

 Given the way restricted free agency played out for big men this summer and their already bloated payroll, it makes sense for them to wait on extending Nurkic and see if the surge with him in the lineup is sustainable. To repeat another stat from my year-end power rankings, when he started, they went 14-5 and had a +9.6 net rating with him on the floor. Furthermore, with Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Moe Harkless also on the floor, it almost didn't matter whether the fifth player was Noah Vonleh (+5.5 net rating) or Al-Farouq Aminu (+5.4), although the latter lineup only logged 72 minutes compared to 229 and was hurt on the defensive boards.

 14. Los Angeles Clippers (8th in the West) 51-31
Point Differential: +4.3 (4th), Offense: 110.3 (4th), Defense: 105.8 (13th)

 I'm not sure there's a team with a wider range of outcomes than this one because running the offense through Blake Griffin with a variety of talented guards, including flashy "rookie" Milos Teodosic, could be great in theory. However, the injury history of him and Danilo Gallinari combined with their lack of depth at forward makes it more likely that the hype train goes off the rails. Pegging them as this spot is basically splitting the difference and trying to count on the fact that Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, and Austin Rivers put up a +8.8 net rating in 565 minutes together, despite the fact that CP3 was involved in 268 of those minutes.

15. Utah Jazz (9th in the West) 51-31
Point Differential: +3.9 (6th), Offense: 107.4 (12th), Defense: 102.7 (3rd)

 Two-man lineup data isn't the most useful given the noise around who the other three teammates out there are, but in the 541 minutes that Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors shared the floor together, they only allowed 96.5 points per 100 possessions while the offense hovered around their overall team average, leading to a +10.7 net rating. Here's to hoping Favors stays healthy in a contract year in to help Gobert and the defense keep games close with Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, and Joe Ingles sharing most of the playmaking duties left behind by Hayward. Dante Exum losing most of if not all of another year to injury sucks as he enters restricted free agency, but it could also allow #13 pick Donovan Mitchell and a finally healthy Alec Burks develop more of their combo guard skills to help pick up the slack, as well.

For the second half of the league, click it here
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