2017-18 NBA Opening Night Power Rankings Part 2

Well that was some opening night between four of the top five teams in Part 1 of my preseason rankings. From the terrible Gordon Hayward injury to Kyrie Irving trying to hit another impossible 3 in LeBron James' face to try and sent an unlikely comeback to overtime, the first game had it it all, for better or worse. Then the Rockets weathered a Warriors storm to lead for only the opening and last minutes behind an electric James Harden performance and their defensive additions. Injuries to Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, and Omri Casspi before and during the game jumbled Golden State's rotations a bit; Pat McCaw's foot was on the line for a would be 3 in the final two minutes; and a crucial 0.6 seconds came off the clock on the first inbound attempt before Kevin Durant's near buzzer beater. Still, starting out 0-1 last year obviously wasn't a death sentence for them, and you can clearly tell what kind of team they will be. The bottom half of the league, not so much.

16. Charlotte Hornets (7th in the East) 36-46 

Point Differential: +0.2 (15th), Offense: 106.4 (14th), Defense: 106.1 (14th)

I mentioned often last year how they were 33-29 when Cody Zeller played and just 3-17 when he was out, but now that they added Dwight Howard, I'm curious to see how the big man rotation plays out. Nicolas Batum's injury to start the year obviously puts them behind the eight ball, but fill-in starter Jeremy Lamb has been a solid producer in his minutes, as her per 36 averages are 18.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.0 steal, and 0.8 blocks. They also drafted Malik Monk and Dwayne Bacon to further solidify the wing depth, so with a balanced offense and defense, they should return to the playoffs.

17. Philadelphia 76ers (8th in the East) 28-54

Point Differential: -5.7 (27th), Offense: 100.7 (30th), Defense: 106.4 (T-17th)

Like the Clippers in the West, putting everyone's favorite sleeper team as the 8th seed is a hedge against injury concerns for Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and now even Markelle Fultz. Embiid may have only played 31 games last year, but his impact was evident as he had a +3.2 net rating when on the floor, the only Sixer in the positive besides Shawn Long, who only played 18 games. They apparently think enough of his health to give him a risky, partially protected max contract rather than maintaining around $39 million in cap room that already accounted for his $18.3 million cap hold next summer, so hopefully that's a good sign. Fultz's shooting struggles as he deals with his own ailments means he'll come off the bench to start, and that's fine considering the potential 3-and-D fit of Jerryd Bayless next to J.J. Redick. It should also help the playmaking development of Simmons and Fultz as they're split up to run the first and second units when they are at full strength. May the basketball gods be ever in their favor.

18. New Orleans Pelicans (10th in the West) 34-48 

Point Differential: -2.1 (22nd), Offense: 103.3 (T-25th), Defense: 104.9 (T-8th)

The grand big man experiment didn't quite go as planned since they went 11-14 after the trade for DeMarcus Cousins, including just 7-10 when Boogie played. The lineups with him and Anthony Davis were generally positive, though, and in the 376 minutes that they shared the floor with Jrue Holiday, the team had a +2.8 net rating. The utter lack of focus on surrounding them with shooters for spacing is confounding, though, and consider me skeptical that Dante Cunningham's 39.2% mark last season is for real since he only hit 31.2% the previous year after only being 2 for 38 in the first six years of his career. Maybe Ian Clark and Darius Miller will prove to be more than nice end of the bench options or Tony Allen and Rajon Rondo, who currently isn't healthy again, will show they have more left in the tank than what the market dictated, but they're on the outside looking in among playoff contenders for me.

19. Memphis Grizzlies (11th in the West) 43-39

Point Differential: +0.5 (T-12th), Offense: 104.7 (T-18th), Defense: 104.5 (T-6th)

Letting aging veterans Allen, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter walk will probably prove wise in the long run, but replacing them with just Ben McLemore, Tyreke Evans, and 2nd round picks Dillon Brooks and Ivan Rabb is a risky proposition at best. Cutting loose last year's #17 pick in last year's draft, Wade Baldwin IV, and the European prospect they just brought over, Rade Zagorac, doesn't look great, either, but at least they brought back breakout power forward JaMychal Green. The real problem is that Chandler Parsons simply doesn't look like the same player he used to be, as evidenced by his -3.6 net rating when on the floor last year. Maybe playing him as a stretch four off the bench will help him be more effective and healthier, but they need help on the wings.

20. Detroit Pistons (9th in the East) 37-45

Point Differential: -1.1 (20th), Offense: 103.3 (T-25th), Defense: 105.3 (11th)

Although this comes with the caveat of two-man lineup data, Stanley Johnson and Tobias Harris had a +2.5 net rating in 850 minutes together, and I'd expect that to be their starting forward combination with an emphasis on small ball. After trading Marcus Morris for Avery Bradley and adding Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway, I expect Johnson to get most of his minutes at his natural small forward position rather than masquerading as a 2. Hopefully that and natural development (he's still just 21) will improve his efficiency on a team that needs an offensive jolt.

21. Dallas Mavericks (12th in the West) 33-49 

Point Differential: -2.9 (23rd), Offense: 103.7 (23rd), Defense: 106.3 (T-15th)

Exhibit A of how lineup data can be a funny tool in the small sample size of 22 games with Nerlens Noel last season: he and Dirk Nowitzki had a +6.0 net rating overall in their 201 minutes, but in the 122 minutes when Harrison Barnes was the third member of the front court as a conventional lineup, they had a -4.0 rating. 51 one of those minutes were with Seth Curry and Wesley Matthews to the tune of +6.1, but they were creamed for a -29.9 rating in 34 minutes of Yogi Ferrell taking Curry's place. With that much noise around the data, it's not entirely surprising that coach Rick Carlisle is instead bringing Noel off the bench in favor of smaller lineups that in theory give Barnes and Nowitzki more advantages against bigger and slower opponents. The stress reaction in Curry's tibia obviously changes things as he's currently week to week, but for now it looks like they're committed to starting a small unit that opens things up for #9 pick Dennis Smith Jr., who will likely provide the full roller coaster ride of ups and downs that rookie point guards tend to experience based on his college experience.

22. Los Angeles Lakers (13th in the West) 26-56 

Point Differential: -6.9 (30th), Offense: 103.4 (24th), Defense: 110.6 (30th)

If you only watched the preseason, one might think Kyle Kuzma is the Laker I'm picking to win Rookie of the Year, but with apologies to falling victim to the narrative, I'm going with Lonzo Ball. It's hard to credit a single player for UCLA's turnaround from 15-17 to 31-5 last year, but infectious passers like him tend to change a culture and is exactly what coach Luke Walton needed to try fully install the Warriors offense he brought down. Turning over half the roster with the smart additions of fellow draft picks Kuzma, Josh Hart, and Thomas Bryant and veterans Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brook Lopez, and Andrew Bogut will also help ensure they're no longer at the bottom of the standings, so they should be set up well for free agency next summer just as they have planned.

23. Orlando Magic (10th in the East) 29-53 

Point Differential: -6.6 (28th), Offense: 101.2 (29th), Defense: 108.0 (T-22nd)

The projected starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic had just a +1.4 net rating in 410 minutes last year, and it was an identical +1.4 in 105 minutes with expensive backup center Bismack Biyombo replacing Vuc. Swapping out Ross with Mario Hezonja pumped it up to +11.1, albeit in the small sample size of just 40 minutes, and like I said when Jonathan Isaac was drafted, putting him out there with Gordon as the forwards sounds much more interesting than continuing to start a known commodity like Ross. 

24. Indiana Pacers (11th in the East) 42-40

Point Differential: -0.2 (T-16th), Offense: 106.2 (15th), Defense: 106.3 (T-15th)

Based on their summer, it looks like GM Kevin Pritchard is content riding the treadmill of mediocrity right down the standings rather than commit to a proper rebuild. They should be decent enough to put up a fight most nights because on paper, they don't have any major holes. Other than a lack of high end talent next to Myles Turner, that is. They at least retained flexibility moving forward and have all of their draft picks, so maybe they will fall into a quick reboot if things bottom out this year. After all in their 1,830 minutes together, the front court pairing of Turner with Thaddeus Young resulted in a 74.6% defensive rebound rate, which would've ranked 2nd worst in the league, so perhaps they'll tank on accident.

25. Brooklyn Nets (12th in the East) 20-62

Point Differential: -6.7 (29th), Offense: 101.9 (28th), Defense: 108.0 (T-22nd)

I don't know how I became such a Nets optimistic, but here I am repeating stats like their 13-20 record with Jeremy Lin in the starting lineup compared to 7-42 otherwise. Caris LeVert becoming a starter post All-Star Break and averaging 9.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists on a 48.2%/34.1%/70.5% shooting line in just 23.8 minutes in that stretch is an encouraging sign going forward, and I've already written about their bets on the talent of D'Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, and Jarrett Allen this summer. Their first round pick that the Cavs own isn't quite as valuable as most might believe, and now they control they finally own firsts in future years.

26. Sacramento Kings (14th in the West) 32-50

Point Differential: -3.9 (25th), Offense: 104.6 (T-20th), Defense: 109.1 (T-26th)

Maybe this is only something I find interesting, but they now have eight players on rookie-scale contracts, not even including the European rookie Bogdan Bogdanovic or second rounder Frank Mason. Maybe all of that youth results in the worst record in the league, but they're counting on the veteran additions of George Hill, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter to steer them in the right direction after finishing the season on a 7-9 stretch. That run had two losses before that, but it coincided with Buddy Hield becoming a starter and averaging 16.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists on 47.0%/40.7%/80.0% shooting overall in their last 18 games.

27. Atlanta Hawks (13th in the East) 43-39

Point Differential: -0.9 (19th), Offense: 102.3 (27th), Defense: 103.1 (4th)

The perimeter trio of Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, and Taurean Prince only logged 77 minutes together across 10 games, but they did have a +4.1 net rating on the back of only allowing 96.5 points per 100 possessions. There's no sugarcoating that they're going to drop in the standings after losing half of their roster, but perhaps those three can provide reason for optimism, especially with offensive big men like John Collins, Ersan Ilyasova, and Mike Muscala figuring heavily into the rotation to provide help on that end of the court. Small lineups with Collins at center, Prince at the four, and second year sleeper DeAndre' Bembry on the wing could also provide some excitement in what is likely to be an otherwise tough rebuilding year.

28. Phoenix Suns (15th in the West) 24-58

Point Differential: -5.6 (26th), Offense: 103.9 (22nd), Defense: 109.3 (28th)

Last year's #8 pick Marquese Chriss was a little all over the place, especially on defense, but he did come into his own a bit after the All-Star Break with averages of 12.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 49.8%/36.0%/61.5% shooting in just 26.9 minutes. If he can harness his athletic tools under the tutelage of Tyson Chandler, maybe their defense can improve with a healthy Eric Bledsoe and #4 pick Josh Jackson in the fold. There's almost nowhere to go but up, after all.

29. New York Knicks (14th in the East) 31-51 

Point Differential: -3.7 (24th), Offense: 104.7 (T-18th), Defense: 108.8 (25th)

This might be a little too pessimistic since I do like #8 pick Frank Ntilikina as a prospect, but with him being so raw and veteran signing Ramon Sessions coming off a poor year, Kristaps Porzingis and their army of big men could have a hard time getting the ball. Of course, Porzingis wasn't exactly fed often by Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony last year, either, and the defense might have an addition by subtraction element to it. The holdovers they did keep might not be much to write home about either, though: no one on the team had positive on/off splits last year.

30. Chicago Bulls (15th in the East) 41-41

Point Differential: +0.4 (14th), Offense: 104.6 (T-20th), Defense: 104.5 (T-6th)

Yesterday's news of Bobby Portis putting Nikola Mirotic in the hospital with broken bones in his face that will keep him out 4-6 weeks is sadly fitting for the state of the franchise. Now Portis is suspended eight games, and they're out one of their better players for a while after they finished the season 9-4 once Mirotic became a starter. Of course, this team is drastically different after the departures of Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, and Rajon Rondo, so it doesn't really matter if holdovers Mirotic, Robin Lopez, and Jerian Grant had a +5.3 net rating in their 166 minutes together.