2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 2

I'd complain about Atlanta shooting themselves in the foot with all the fumbles in the red zone to miss covering by half a point, but I also got the Dallas pick right with the help of a missed extra point (after a Chiefs missed PAT resulted in a blown cover on MNF). So overall a 2-1 Thanksgiving day wasn't too shabby.

This week: 2-1
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 84-80

Road Favorites

Patriots -9.5 at Jets

Although New England has struggled on the road, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel should be healthier after their bye to provide a boost. And when we last saw New York, both their defense and Josh McCown were complete letdowns, so it's hard to see them staying competitive despite facing another division rival.

Jaguars -3.5 at Bills

Speaking of that New York-Buffalo game, it's still shocking that the Bills put up 41 points after combining for just 33 points in their previous four games combined, especially with Matt Barkley starting after just signing a couple weeks prior. That's not going to happen again with raw rookie Josh Allen returning this week against the tough Jacksonville defense.

Steelers -3.5 at Broncos

I'm almost wary of this line being surprisingly low, but Pittsburgh showed last week how hard it is to keep their offense down for a whole game. You need to be able to create explosive plays yourself, and I still don't think Denver can do that.

T.J. Watt and this pass rush has helped shut down big plays of late.

2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 1

Happy Thanksgiving! With the short week before a fun day of football, here's a short post with my picks for the three turkey day games.

Bears -4.5 at Lions

Having to rely on career backup Chase Daniel gives me some pause, but I just have a hard time seeing Detroit scoring much on the league's best defense, especially with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones injured. Kenny Golladay can do a lot of amazing things on the field, but stopping Chicago's defense from winning this by themselves may not be one of them.

I'm guessing we'll see a lot of Elliott's "eating" celebration before Thanksgiving dinner.

Cowboys -7.5 versus Redskins

Dallas has been remained stronger than expected on defense, especially at home, and Washington was already averaging the fewest points per game on the road even before that terrible Alex Smith injury. Rich Hribar also points out that the Redskins' run defense that had improved to start the year is now resorting back to their old ways from recent years, which obviously spells good news for Zeke Elliott. Colt McCoy may surprise them a bit at first, but in the end this shouldn't be a close one.

Falcons +13.5 at Saints

This might not be all that close either with the way New Orleans has been shredding teams, but two touchdowns in a divisional rematch of a game that went to overtime earlier this year is too much. Drew Brees will be without Terron Armstead, who has been the best tackle in the league according to Pro Football Focus, so maybe Atlanta's disappointing pass rush can get him out of rhythm a bit. Or at least, enough for their own, normally explosive offense, to keep things interesting.

Last week: 6-7
Season total: 82-79 

2018 NFL Week 11 Picks

Things swung back in a big way last week with favorites only covering in 5 of 14 games in Week 10, but fortunately, I was on the right side of most of those. Since starting to be more deliberate with how many home and road favorites I was taking, I've gone 38-17 the last four weeks to put me in position to at least have a chance in my picks pool, so let's hope I don't screw things up now.

Last week: 10-4
Season total: 76-72

Road Favorites:

Texans -2.5 at Redskins

Right off the bat, it's a pick I'm not exactly confident in since Houston doesn't feel like a team that would win seven straight after starting 0-3. Washington's 6-3 feels like smoke and mirrors, though, and the incredible fact that there hasn't been a single lead change in any of their games feels like summary of Alex Smith as a quarterback. He won't lose the game for you, but he probably isn't going to lead comeback, either. Considering the state of his offensive line against this defensive front, that may be a problem.

Panthers -3.5 at Lions

Carolina ran into a buzzsaw in Pittsburgh on a short week, but they should bounce back on the road against a struggling Detroit side. With Golden Tate already traded and Marvin Jones now out this week, it'll be tough for the Lions to match the points that their struggling defense will surely give up to Cam Newtown and Christian McCaffrey, who suddenly has seven touchdowns in his last three games after only one in his first six.

2018 NFL Week 10 Picks

Due to some personal matters and the Santa Cruz Warriors season starting, this will be an abridged version of my picks. Last week was another successful week at 9-4, and I would have actually gotten to .500 on the season had I not chickened out with my Patriots pick.

Road Favorites

Saints -4.5 at Bengals

New Orleans made their case that they're the best team in the league last week, and while I'm not ready to declare that just yet, getting this nice road win would go a long way. I don't fully trust them away from the Superdome, but I can't take Cincinnati without their best player, A.J. Green.

Falcons -4.5 at Browns

It's another dome team on the road, and I'm much more comfortable with this one considering the opponent. Gregg Williams' beaten down defense will have a tough time slowing down this surging Atlanta attack.

Chargers -9.5 at Raiders

This is a lot of points in a divisional road game, but Oakland has seemingly packed it in for this first year of the second Jon Gruden regime. Hopefully LA replacing Caleb Sturgis at kicker will make their games less stressful since they're looking like one of the best teams in the league.

Road Underdogs

Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs

I already hate this pick, but it's just so many points against an Arizona team that might have signs of life with new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I like Kansas City to have a big lead early (the -10 in the first half makes sense) but can already picture the garbage time touchdown.

Jaguars +3.5 at Colts

Both teams are coming off of a bye, and an interesting nugget from Fabian Sommer is that home teams after the off week are 67-82-2 against the spread since 2010. In what should be a tough divsional game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville in what's seemingly a make or break game for their season.

Seahawks +10.5 at Rams

While I think LA will bounce back and win at home, I learned my lesson about laying too many points in this matchup when these teams first met.

Giants +3.5 at 49ers

I'm trying to stay levelheaded with the Mullens Mania since his impressive debut was against the Raiders, so while I'd lean towards San Francisco winning at home, I don't feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with them yet. After all, Odell Beckham Jr. could take over this game by himself against their inconsistent pass defense.

Home Underdogs

Titans +7.5 versus Patriots

Tennessee is too good of a team to be getting this many points at home, even if it is against New England, who haven't been as surgical on the road. With former Patriot Dion Lewis taking control of the backfield, this offense should be able to keep pace to at least cover.

Home Favorites

Steelers -3.5 versus Panthers

Turns out I didn't need to be as worried as I was.

Jets -7.5 versus Bills

Josh McCown filling in for an injured Sam Darnold might actually help New York given the rookie's recent struggles. In any case, you know I'm basically picking against Buffalo every week, especially on the road.

Bears -6.5 versus Lions

This almost feels too easy with how these teams are playing because Chicago's defense at home should give Detroit the same kind of trouble as Minnesota last week. Hopefully Allen Robinson can get back involved in the offense now that he seems to be back healthy.

Buccaneers -2.5 versus Redskins

I've made a season of picking against Tampa's defense, but this might be an unstoppable force versus an immovable object with Washington missing four offensive lineman. With the Washington corners getting burned most weeks, this should be a bounce back spot for Mike Evans.

Packers -9.5 versus Dolphins

Green Bay collapsed in the fourth quarter in Foxborough but are now back at home against a much less threatening AFC East team. I'll lay however many points it takes to have Aaron Rodgers against Brock Osweiler.

Eagles -6.5 versus Cowboys

I know I quoted that stat about home teams coming off a bye, but it doesn't mean that all three of Cincy, Indy, and Philly will fall short. In fact, with the Eagles getting healthier, I think this is when they start to pull away from the rest of the NFC (L)East.

Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia Instant Reaction

76ers get:

Jimmy Butler

$20,445,779

$19,841,627

Justin Patton

$2,667,600

Timberwolves get:

Robert Covington

$10,464,092

$11,301,219

$12,138,345

$12,975,471

Jerryd Bayless

$8,575,916

Dario Saric

$2,526,840

$3,481,986

2022 2nd round pick

This is fascinating stunner that seemingly came from out of nowhere. I will get into more detail once all of the final details come out, but here are my first thoughts:

• It's a solid haul for Minnesota considering their circumstances since Butler's way of handling this didn't give them much leverage. Saric hasn't played as well as last year but is still a great young talent with two years left on his rookie deal while Covington is in the first year of his extension at a fair price.
• Hopefully this roster reconfiguration gets Andrew Wiggins more time at shooting guard and brings out his potential on a more consistent basis.
• Bringing in another ball dominant star will probably be tougher for Markelle Fultz's development, but Philadelphia has to do this trade for an established All-Star, especially if they're confident they can re-sign him this summer.
• Fultz-Redick-Butler-Simmons-Embiid is a tantalizing potential starting five, and if a forward like Wilson Chandler can give them good minutes off the bench come playoff time, they'll be in good shape. A sleeper to keep an eye out for is Jonah Bolden as a versatile big.

2018 NFL Week 9 Picks

A 9-5 showing was a slight step back from the previous week's 10-4, but it's still a heck of a lot better than some of my previous weeks. And if leads could've been held onto by Cincinnati, Kansas City, or San Francisco (even just on the 2 point conversion!) to cover the spreads, this would be a different conversation. The process feels like it's been pretty good, though, so hopefully it continues during this weekend with six teams on bye as we're somehow already in Week 9.

Road Favorites

Chiefs -8.5 at Browns

It finally happened: Hue Jackson was relieved of his duties after a 3-36-1 stint. And he still had the gall to try and pass off the blame this already about not getting the players he wanted "the first two years" as if he knew exactly which quarterbacks would work out. This, from the man who tried to trade 2nd AND 3rd round picks for A.J. freaking McCarron, who was in the last year of his rookie deal anyway. I'd say this team has nowhere to go but up now, but it's not exactly like they're in much better hands with Gregg Williams. Sorry if we don't take your word on this one, Gregg.

🤔 pic.twitter.com/S4uBr3Fkjf

— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) November 2, 2018

Bears -5.5 at Bills

The CBS Sports line being released before it was on the board in Vegas due to Derek Anderson's injury is fortuitous here, but let's be honest: there's zero percent chance I'd be taking Buffalo in this spot. No matter who is under center, they have no functional passing game, which is just a bit of a problem in the modern NFL. That's especially true against a Chicago defense that still haven't allowed a rushing touchdown.

Road Underdogs

Raiders +3.5 at 49ers

I continued my streak of having the wrong pick in San Francisco games as I underestimated just how little fight Oakland has left in it after losing so many of their best players. This game needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's no denying that Nick Mullens was impressive in his NFL debut with his confidence in distributing the ball to the receivers Kyle Shanahan schemes open. Given C.J. Beathard's lack of pocket presence and unwillingness to let it rip at times, things could get interesting as far as who Jimmy Garoppolo's backup will be in the future.

Falcons +1.5 at Redskins

Washington has quietly been on a roll and is at home against a team that doesn't tend to fare too well outdoors, so why am I picking against them? Atlanta's offense is just so much more explosive on offense, and hopefully their beleaguered defense can get just enough stops to pull out a win. It may also be telling that the home team isn't getting the typical field goal advantage, indicating that the Falcons are the better team in a vacuum.