Things swung back in a big way last week with favorites only covering in 5 of 14 games in Week 10, but fortunately, I was on the right side of most of those. Since starting to be more deliberate with how many home and road favorites I was taking, I've gone 38-17 the last four weeks to put me in position to at least have a chance in my picks pool, so let's hope I don't screw things up now.
Last week: 10-4
Season total: 76-72
Road Favorites:
Texans -2.5 at Redskins
Right off the bat, it's a pick I'm not exactly confident in since Houston doesn't feel like a team that would win seven straight after starting 0-3. Washington's 6-3 feels like smoke and mirrors, though, and the incredible fact that there hasn't been a single lead change in any of their games feels like summary of Alex Smith as a quarterback. He won't lose the game for you, but he probably isn't going to lead comeback, either. Considering the state of his offensive line against this defensive front, that may be a problem.
Panthers -3.5 at Lions
Carolina ran into a buzzsaw in Pittsburgh on a short week, but they should bounce back on the road against a struggling Detroit side. With Golden Tate already traded and Marvin Jones now out this week, it'll be tough for the Lions to match the points that their struggling defense will surely give up to Cam Newtown and Christian McCaffrey, who suddenly has seven touchdowns in his last three games after only one in his first six.
Road Underdogs:
Packers +2.5 at Seahawks
I can't believe I ignored all of the signs and lost this pick by a half point after Green Bay got off to a 21 TO 3 LEAD. Oh wait, yes I can because Mike McCarthy is terrible.
Bengals +3.5 at Ravens
Home teams after a bye went 0-3 against the spread last week to continue that surprising trend of struggles, and with Baltimore's murky quarterback situation, taking the points in a tough division game seems like the play here. After all, Cincinnati's defense has nowhere to go but up after firing defensive coordinator Teryl Austin.
Raiders +4.5 at Cardinals
I'm probably getting too cute taking the points here, as well, but it's still hard to lay more than a field goal with a team as bad as Arizona. For as improved as they've been under Byron Leftwich, they still aren't racking up the yards or points, but maybe, just maybe, Oakland will mess things up for themselves even more this season by costing themselves the #1 draft slot.
Vikings +2.5 at Bears
As good as Chicago has been playing, I still feel that Minnesota is the superior team overall and that they'll finish as the NFC North winners. It'll be a tough road test against an equally elite defense, but I'll take the more proven passer in Kirk Cousins over Mitchell Trubisky.
Chiefs +2.5 at Rams
I believe this game set the record for the highest over/under ever, so of course, I'm making this pick based on which defense is playing better right now. It's a #RevengeGame for Marcus Peters, but he's been so flammable in coverage this year that Kansas City is looking smart for dealing him and rolling with the surprisingly effective trio of Kendall Fuller, Steven Nelson, and Orlando Scandrick. I also like getting the points in a shootout that will likely come down to whoever has the ball last.
Home Underdogs:
Jaguars +5.5 versus Steelers
Jacksonville almost burned me last week, but I'm taking the points with them again to at least cover in an even more favorable position with more points and at home. This is a prideful team that beat Pittsburgh pretty convincingly twice last year, so they should put up a good fight here.
Home Favorites:
Colts -2.5 versus Titans
I was all set to take the points here, as well, but then I read Rich Hribar's note that Andrew Luck is undefeated against Tennessee with a 6-1-2 record against the spread. The fact that it's under a field goal and at home is reassuring. I will say that I'm loving seeing Marcus Mariota, Corey Davis, and this offense starting to perform like they're capable of now that the quarterback has feeling in his hand, which is, you know, kind of important for passing.
Falcons -3.5 versus Cowboys
In that same piece, Hribar also pointed out that Atlanta scores on 56% of the possessions at home compared to just 35.7% on the road. This game is of course in Atlanta, and Dallas only managed their first road win of the year in that surprising upset last week. Amari Cooper has been an injection of life into their offense, but I still don't think they're explosive enough to keep up here.
Giants -0.5 versus Buccaneers
I'm back to picking against Tampa's defense, especially on the road. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are going to win someone a million dollars in DraftKings this week.
Chargers -7.5 versus Broncos
I don't love laying more than a touchdown in this divisional matchup, but LA is just so much better than Denver on both sides of the ball. Give me Philip Rivers at home over Case Keenum every time and twice on Sunday...which of course is when most games are played.
Saints -7.5 versus Eagles
Welp, so much for my declaration last week that this is when Philly would start to take off. Ronald Darby tearing his ACL in his contract year is a terrible blow for both him and the team since he's by far their best corner. Now on the road against the machine known as the New Orleans offense, expect a lot of points in this one.
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