This week: 2-1
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 84-80
Road Favorites
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
Although New England has struggled on the road, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel should be healthier after their bye to provide a boost. And when we last saw New York, both their defense and Josh McCown were complete letdowns, so it's hard to see them staying competitive despite facing another division rival.
Jaguars -3.5 at Bills
Speaking of that New York-Buffalo game, it's still shocking that the Bills put up 41 points after combining for just 33 points in their previous four games combined, especially with Matt Barkley starting after just signing a couple weeks prior. That's not going to happen again with raw rookie Josh Allen returning this week against the tough Jacksonville defense.
Steelers -3.5 at Broncos
I'm almost wary of this line being surprisingly low, but Pittsburgh showed last week how hard it is to keep their offense down for a whole game. You need to be able to create explosive plays yourself, and I still don't think Denver can do that.
 |
| T.J. Watt and this pass rush has helped shut down big plays of late. |
Road Underdogs
Giants +6.5 at Eagles
I'm not saying that New York will win their third straight, but with Philadelphia now likely down five corners in addition to their starting free safety, there will definitely be a lot of points scored in this one. It's hard to see any big lead holding here, so I'm taking the points.
Raiders +10.5 at Ravens
Hey picking Oakland worked last week! But really, a rookie quarterback in his second career start is laying double digits? After his first start consisted of 26 rushes to only 19 pass attempts in this modern age of offense? No thanks.
Packers +3.5 at Vikings
Green Bay's main defensive weakness has been the deep ball, but Kirk Cousins attempts deep passes at the second lowest rate in the league, as Rich Hribar points out. His prime time performance last week left a lot to be desired, so hoping for him to outduel Aaron Rodgers this time around on SNF is a tall order. With Aaron Jones finally getting more integrated into the offense these last few weeks, they're bound to finally break through and get a road W.
Titans +6.5 at Texans
Things got away from Tennessee last week, but I like them to win outright in what will likely be a defensive battle. Their offensive line should give Marcus Mariota more opportunities to make plays than Deshaun Watson, and Houston hasn't exactly had a large margin for error during this improbably winning streak.
Home Favorites
Panthers -3.5 versus Seahawks
After a couple tough road games, Carolina's now back at home where they're undefeated so far this year. Their strong run defense should give Seattle's old school offense trouble, and with Doug Baldwin's status in doubt, I like their chances of holding onto a lead here.
Colts -9.5 versus Dolphins
Miami has the worst point differential on the road at -14.2, per Hribar, and now they're facing one of the hottest teams in the league. Maybe getting Ryan Tannehill back under center will help, but I don't see their defense slowing down this Indianapolis offense right now.
 |
| Andrew Luck finally being healthy behind a strong offensive line is one of my favorite things of the season. |
In addition to 25 straight road losses, Cleveland has also lost seven straight to Cincinnati, so even counting on a close game and taking the points is a scary proposition. I'd feel a lot better about this if A.J. Green was looking likely to play, but as it stands I'm just closing my eyes and taking the home team.
Buccaneers -3.5 versus 49ers
As noted by Hribar, San Francisco forces turnovers at the lowest rate in the league, so Tampa's Achilles heel on offense might not be a problem in this one. Their defense hasn't been quite as terrible at home, either, so while laying more than a field goal with evenly matched teams doesn't feel great, I don't quite trust Nick Mullens yet to pick him in his first career road start.
Chargers -12.5 versus Cardinals
LA hasn't been putting teams away of late, but getting one of the worst teams in the league at home should be exactly what the doctor ordered. And if Arizona is trailing late as expected, their offensive line will have their hands full trying to block this pass rush, so I'm not as worried about a garbage time score with a big spread as I usually would be.
No comments:
Post a Comment