Wednesday, November 21, 2018

2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 1

Happy Thanksgiving! With the short week before a fun day of football, here's a short post with my picks for the three turkey day games.

Bears -4.5 at Lions

Having to rely on career backup Chase Daniel gives me some pause, but I just have a hard time seeing Detroit scoring much on the league's best defense, especially with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones injured. Kenny Golladay can do a lot of amazing things on the field, but stopping Chicago's defense from winning this by themselves may not be one of them.

I'm guessing we'll see a lot of Elliott's "eating" celebration before Thanksgiving dinner.
Cowboys -7.5 versus Redskins

Dallas has been remained stronger than expected on defense, especially at home, and Washington was already averaging the fewest points per game on the road even before that terrible Alex Smith injury. Rich Hribar also points out that the Redskins' run defense that had improved to start the year is now resorting back to their old ways from recent years, which obviously spells good news for Zeke Elliott. Colt McCoy may surprise them a bit at first, but in the end this shouldn't be a close one.

Falcons +13.5 at Saints

This might not be all that close either with the way New Orleans has been shredding teams, but two touchdowns in a divisional rematch of a game that went to overtime earlier this year is too much. Drew Brees will be without Terron Armstead, who has been the best tackle in the league according to Pro Football Focus, so maybe Atlanta's disappointing pass rush can get him out of rhythm a bit. Or at least, enough for their own, normally explosive offense, to keep things interesting.

Last week: 6-7
Season total: 82-79 

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