Last week: 6-8
Season total: 47-44
Bills -3.5 versus Buccaneers
Jameis Winston getting cleared to start makes me less confident in this one, but Buffalo ranks 2nd in Football Outsiders DVOA compared to Tampa Bay at 31st. Jordan Matthews' possible return could aid in Tyrod Taylor's impressive home splits continuing against the struggling Bucs secondary, as well.
Titans -6.5 at Browns
The one pass defense ranked lower than Tampa in DVOA? Cleveland. Marcus Mariota looked good in his return on Monday even without his mobility in play, so I'd expect a big offensive performance from Tennessee here.
WHAT. A. THROW.— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2017
Marcus Mariota with an absolute DIME for the 53-yard TD! #INDvsTEN #TitanUp pic.twitter.com/O75blQhmmx
Panthers -3.5 at Bears
This low line feels like Luke Keuchly's concussion was already baked into it, and it's reasonable enough to lay the points with the better team. Chicago can't hide Mitchell Trubisky against good defenses forever.
Dolphins -3.5 versus Jets
I'm still perplexed at how Miami won last week after being down 17-0 at halftime, but Adam Gase's squad might just have a knack at pulling out close games. Despite losing to New York four weeks ago, I like them to take care of business at home this time.
Cardinals +3.5 "at" Rams (in London)
That was some debut for Adrian Peterson in Arizona, and although he likely won't be that great every week, he can help the offense stay balanced against an LA defense that is more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Conversely, facing the Cardinals' stout defensive front could make things tough for a Rams offense that relies on getting Todd Gurley going.
Vikings -5.5 versus Ravens
This almost feels too easy after how these teams fared last week, but you can't trust Baltimore's offense even with the points, especially on the road against a defense like Minnesota's. Jerick McKinnon will face a stiffer test against a defense possibly getting big Brandon Williams back, but he's finally turning the potential I've raved about into consistent production.
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017
Packers +5.5 versus Saints
And here's where I go against the seemingly simple play. I know, I know: perennial MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone while the Saints have been rolling. I'm cautiously optimistic about how Brett Hundley will do with a full week to prepare, though, and with the game in Lambeau, I think Green Bay will compete and keep it close.
Colts +3.5 versus Jaguars
No, I'm not bitter towards Jacksonville for always pulling the Charlie Brown with the football on me, why do you ask? In all seriousness, though, Indianapolis has shown they can hang in games with Jacoby Brissett before fading late, and their defense can give them a shot at home against Blake Bortles.
49ers +5.5 versus Cowboys
This might be one home 'dog too many, but San Francisco continues to be right in their games, becoming the first team to ever lose five straight by 3 points or less. Maybe the switch to C.J. Beathard at quarterback will be the difference after he had his moments. Or Dallas will be distracted by the Ezekiel Elliott saga continuing to drag on. Or the home crowd will be fired up as the 1981 team will be honored and supporting Dwight Clark. One of these things could happen, right?
Seahawks -6.5 at Giants
The spread being this high on the road is concerning, but after shocking the world last week, I don't think New York will surprise anyone facing another top defense. Seattle tends to do better in the second half of the season, so maybe the early bye week jump starts that process.
Chargers -1.5 versus Broncos
Speaking of last Sunday night's ugly game, Denver does not inspire much confidence as an underdog. I feel like I shouldn't overreact to last week's performances, but if an L.A. that seems to be hitting their stride can get ahead early, that could be it. C.J. Anderson has been lightly used when trailing, and Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa could give Trevor Siemian problems all day.
Bengals +5.5 at Steelers
After going back and forth on this one, I'm taking the points because Cincy was playing well before their bye and can hang with an Pittsburgh squad. Being on the road hurts, but this could be a spot for Joe Mixon to break out, controlling the clock against an average rush defense.
Patriots -3.5 versus Falcons
Atlanta caught somewhat of a tough break on the roughing the passer call that let Miami keep the ball at the beginning of the comeback, but they still shouldn't have allowed that to happen at home. Now they're on the road against the team that started these blown leads, and although I expect an offensive shootout, New England has been better at pulling these games out.
For the 2nd time today...— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017
TB12 to @RobGronkowski for the @Patriots TOUCHDOWN! #GoPats pic.twitter.com/2YPZreFOei
Eagles -5.5 versus Redskins
I don't love laying this many points here, but Philadelphia might be the best team in the league. Ronald Darby could be coming back to fix the only hole on an impressive defense while the top corner on the other side, Josh Norman, has been ruled out. With Washington's strong first round pick Jonathan Allen going on IR this week, as well, I think the Eagles win the war in the trenches.
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