Friday, September 8, 2017

2017 NFL Over/Under Picks: NFC, plus Week 1 Picks

Continuing on the first half of my Over/Under picks, I'm including my take on how each NFC team will do this season, how they finished last year, and what their expected win total was based on their points scored and allowed. I have brief picks for this opening weekend at the end, so let the games begin!

Seahawks over 10.5 wins
Last year: 10-5-1. Expected: 9.8-6.2

Although the offensive line is always a cause for concern, Seattle looks poised to make another run at the Super Bowl thanks to an unbelievable defense and a healthy Russell Wilson. Keeping their star quarterback upright will be a challenge now that former basketball player turned tight end turned left tackle tore his ACL and last year's third round pick, Rees Odhiambo, is moving back to his college position after competing for the left guard spot a season ago. Counting on last year's first round pick Germain Ifedi kicking back out to right tackle after failing at guard is also a concern, so Wilson will likely have to rely once more on his mobility that was limited from the start of the season last year due to ankle and knee issues. When he is able to make throws, he could put up the best numbers of his career since Doug Baldwin has proven to be a #1 receiver, Jimmy Graham came back from his torn patellar tendon amazingly well, and Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson have shown flashes of dynamic playmaking ability when healthy. With running back Chris Carson looking like a seventh round find, Thomas Rawls seemingly fully recovered from his 2015 fractured ankle, and C.J. Prosise a strong third down option, they have options in the backfield in case free agent flier Eddie Lacy can't hit his weight requirements. 

There could be a lot of celebrations this year.
Even if the offensive line limits the amount of points they put up, there shouldn't be many required thanks to what is likely the best defense in the league, especially with the recent trade for defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson making up for top pick Malik McDowell missing time due to a car accident. That could make their pass rush unstoppable when they go into the nickel and shift Michael Bennett inside to bookend Cliff Avril with Frank Clark, who had 10 sacks last year as the third defensive end. Combine that with arguably the best pair of off-ball linebackers, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, shutting down the run and a full year of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor at safety, and it's hard to spot any weaknesses to exploit. The corner depth behind Richard Sherman could be the target with DeShawn Shead still recovering from a torn ACL, but they must feel comfortable with former nickelback Jeremy Lane and third round pick Shaq Griffin since they traded away Tramaine Brock a couple weeks after signing him.

Packers over 10 wins
Last year: 10-6. Expected: 9-7

Green Bay has made the playoffs eight straight years, have averaged just five losses during that sizable sample, and have a certain quarterback named Aaron Rodgers, whom I would consider the favorite for MVP every year, so I'm comfortable taking the Over. Replacing the occasionally spectacular Jared Cook with the more reliable Martellus Bennett at tight end and having Ty Montgomery at running back for the full season should make the offense more consistent without having to rely on Rodgers being a magician. Jordy Nelson remains an elite receiver and is another year removed from his torn ACL, Davante Adams broke out for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards, and Randall Cobb is in line for a bounce back year after averaging six catches for sixty-five yards the first six games before a hamstring injury limited him the rest of the season.

The improvement of a defense that got torched through the air is what will determine their playoff success, and they used their first two draft picks on cornerback Kevin King and safety Josh Jones, who are both exceptional athletes. Since they have one of the best pairs of safeties in the league, the latter will likely fill the versatile role of the departed Micah Hyde while the former could be a starter opposite prodigal son Davon House. Third year corners Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins should still be in the mix after struggling with injuries and consistency last year, but the most important thing will likely be a pass rush that is trying to replace Julius Peppers with late addition Ahmad Brooks in sub-packages. Mike Daniels provides penetration inside, but they'll need starters Clay Matthews and Nick Perry to be at their best in order to generate pressure off the edge and get off the field.

Falcons over 9.5 wins
Last year: 11-5. Expected: 10.6-5.4

Losing offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is more concerning to me than any "Super Bowl hangover," but I think they'll improve enough on defense to offset any regression from their historic offense under rookie OC Steve Sarkisian. Basically their entire offensive personnel is returning, and second year right guard Wes Schwietzer might even be an upgrade on the retired Chris Chester. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should continue to be an excellent one-two punch at running back, and Julio Jones is still a physically dominant target for Matt Ryan to target as frequently as possible. After catching a touchdown in the Super Bowl, look for second year tight end Austin Hooper to see a jump in production now that Jacob Tamme is no longer in the picture.

That improved defense started with signing defensive tackle Dontari Poe and continued by adding more speed to their defense with their first two picks in the draft: edge rusher Takkarist McKinley and linebacker Duke Riley. Getting #1 corner Desmond Trufant back healthy should more than make up for #3 corner Jalen Collins getting another suspension, and their secondary appears pretty solid with depth across the board. As their young linebackers gain more experience, they should be better against the run, especially with Poe in front of them now, so I don't see a two win drop off coming after they finished 7-2 last year, including 5-1 after their bye week.

Cowboys under 9.5 wins
Last year: 13-3. Expected: 10.9-5.1

Two starters are gone from "the best offensive line in football" along with most of their surprisingly decent secondary, middle linebacker Anthony Hitchens got hurt in the preseason, two of their best pass rushers have suspensions, and Ezekiel Elliott is still looking at a 6 game suspension at some point. So the sky is falling, right? Not exactly, but there's enough going against this team that I'm not taking the Over. Dak Prescott is still one of the most impressive young signal callers in the game, Dez Bryant got on the same page as him to connect for 778 yards and 9 scores over their last 10 full games, La'el Collins and Chaz Green should do fine on the line, and Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris are capable runners in their own right. That should be enough to keep this team right around nine wins, but with their tough division and the Packers, Falcons, and AFC West on the schedule, I'm pessimistic they can repeat their 7-2 record in one-score games.

The main source of doubt is a defense that has question marks all over the field. Jaylon Smith could theoretically even be an upgrade while Hitchens is out, but you just don't know how he'll do after his terrible knee injury that wiped out all of last year. I thought Xavier Woods was a steal in the sixth round, but he's still a rookie safety competing with special teamer Jeff Heath for snaps next to Byron Jones. Maybe first round pick Taco Charlton and a healthy DeMarcus Lawrence can do enough at defensive end to push Tyrone Crawford back inside with Maliek Collins and cause enough disruption to cover for a group of corners that is average at best unless their rookies surprise. That's too many uncertainties for me, though.

Giants over 9 wins
Last year: 11-5. Expected: 8.8-7.2

There are less unknowns around last year's second best NFC East team, so even though I don't feel great picking a team that was fortunate enough to have an 8-3 record in one-score games, I'm taking the Over. Supplementing Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard with Brandon Marshall and first round pick Evan Engram gives Eli Manning an impressive group of receivers, and Shane Vereen should be fully healthy this year as an option out of the backfield with Paul Perkins and Wayne Gallman holding some potential. Ereck Flowers is a concern at left tackle, but the signing of blocking tight end Rhett Ellison could prove to be a shrewd move.

The defense is the real strength here thanks to an imposing defensive line of Olivier Vernon, Jason Pierre-Paul, Damon Harrison, and second round pick Dalvin Tomlinson. Along with star strong safety Landon Collins, they shut down the run to make opponents often one-dimensional. With a deep cornerback group that recently added Ross Cockrell, they also allowed the second fewest touchdown passes, so that explains why they were able to stay in so many games. With most of the team back, I think they can build on last year.

Cardinals over 8.5 wins
Last year: 7-8-1. Expected: 9.4-6.6

After under underperforming versus their expected record due to a 3-5-1 record in one-score games and an erratic offense, I think Arizona is in good shape to get back to being playoff contenders thanks to a return to health and effectiveness for John Brown and Jared Veldheer. The former looked to be back to full speed in the preseason while the latter is back from a torn bicep and shifting to right tackle with the hope that 2015 first round pick D.J. Humphries does better back on the left side where he's more comfortable. Having better protection and a reliable secondary receiver behind Larry Fitzgerald should help Carson Palmer be more efficient like in his MVP-caliber 2015 season, and of course, they still have the best running back in the league, David Johnson, pushing to be just the third player to ever have 1,000 yards on the ground and through the air.
Only injury stood in DJ's way in his question for 1,000/1,000.
Losing Calais Campbell, Tony Jefferson, and Kevin Minter in free agency hurts one of the stingiest defenses in the league, but they can fill their spots with top draft picks Robert Nkemdiche, Budda Baker, and Haason Reddick from the last two years and the veteran signings of Antoine Bethea and Karlos Dansby. The outside cornerback spot across from All-Pro Patrick Peterson is still something of an issue, but with Tyrann Mathieu and Tyvon Branch capable of switching between safety and nickelback, the coverage should help up well enough. Having Chandler Jones and Markus Golden applying pressure certainly helps after they combined for 23.5 sacks, so this defense should be good enough to drive a winning record. Heck, maybe the signings of Andy Lee and Phil Dawson will improve DVOA's #30 special teams unit enough to pull out those close games.

Vikings over 8.5
Last year: 8-8. Expected: 8.6-7.4

I just can't quit the Vikings despite all of their highs and lows last season because of how well they've drafted on both sides of the ball. Sam Bradford finally has some stability in the same offense and a sense of comfort with OC Pat Shurmur, so he should build on his underrated first season in Minnesota, especially since an overhauled offensive line should give him more time to throw. Having the opportunity for plays to develop could allow Stefon Diggs to create more big plays as he spends more time on the outside than in the slot, where Adam Thielen is expected to do more of the underneath work next to Pro Bowl tight end Kyle Rudolph. Last year's first round pick Laquon Treadwell and Minnesota native Michael Floyd (after a four game suspension) both bring a more physical presence to the third receiver spot that was lacking as Treadwell developed, and with second round pick Dalvin Cook looking ready to be a workhorse 'back, there's a lot of weapons to score with.

That would be good news for a ferocious defense that was stronger against the pass than the run because playing with a lead would allow Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffin, and Brian Robison to tee off on quarterbacks after combining for 28 sacks last year. Their deep secondary should continue to be a strong unit, so if outside linebacker Anthony Barr can bounce back from a disappointing season to help star middle linebacker Eric Kendricks improve their rush defense, watch out. This side of the ball alone should keep them around .500 again, and since I'm optimistic about Cook and the changes along the line, I'm fairly confident in the Over.

Buccaneers under 8.5 wins
Last year: 9-7. Expected: 7.6-8.4

Like the Broncos in the AFC West, someone has to draw the short straw given my optimism around the rest of Tampa's division rivals. I'm going to pick against the team that has the worst offensive line and least experienced quarterback of the group even if the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard are exciting for Jameis Winston's fantasy prospects. Doug Martin looked good in the preseason, but with his suspension to start the year, career inconsistencies, and questionable blocking in front of him, I can't trust this running game.

There is potential on defense in defensive coordinator Mike Smith's second year at the helm following the additions of safety Justin Evans and linebacker Kendell Beckwith in the draft along with defensive tackle Chris Baker and safety T.J. Ward in free agency. The hope is that Baker and a larger role for talented second year defensive end Noah Spence will improve a pass rush that relied too much on Gerald McCoy's star power. They'll need to generate pressure because the corner situation is worrisome with Vernon Hargreaves' struggles as a rookie and Brent Grimes now 34. I could easily be wrong, but I don't think there's quite enough here to repeat last year's unexpected 9 win season given their tougher second place schedule.

Panthers over 8.5 wins
Last year: 6-10. Expected: 7.2-8.8

I've gone back and forth on this one, and although I'd stay away from it if I was actually in Vegas, I'm tentatively taking the Over if for no other reason than Carolina seems to do better in odd years. Not only were they unlucky with a 2-6 record in one-score games last year, but all six of those losses were by three points or less. Signing Matt Kalil to protect Cam Newton's surgically repaired shoulder is not inspiring, but maybe he'll do better with a change of scenery and his big brother Ryan on the same offensive line as him at center. The run blocking should allow eighth overall pick Christian McCaffrey to shine, though, and even if veteran Jonathan Stewart still handles a lot of early down work, the versatile rookie can make an impact in a multitude of ways. Second round pick Curtis Samuel can also be deployed in a variety of fashions, so hopefully OC Mike Shula can get creative now that he actually has speed at the skill positions.

The defense should remain strong across the board with almost the entire unit returning and veterans Julius Peppers and Mike Adams added to the mix. Who knows what the former still can bring to the table in his return to the team that drafted him 2nd overall in 2002, but they did also move up in the third round to add Daeshon Hall to a pass rush group that has some question marks. Young corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley came on strong during their rookie years, so if the front line can get some pressure, this side of the ball will remain in good shape thanks to their great trio of linebackers.

Saints over 8 wins
Last year: 7-9. Expected: 8.3-7.7

After three straight 7-9 seasons, I think this is the year New Orleans gets back to their winning ways thanks to an improved defense and a more dedicated running game. They've continued to invest in their strong offensive line, they signed future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson, and the moved up in the third round for another running back, Alvin Kamara, so I think they'll take some of the workload off of Drew Brees while also keeping opposing offenses off the field. Trading away Brandin Cooks and losing Willie Snead to a three game suspension hurts, but Michael Thomas proved to a be a #1 receiver even faster than I had hoped while Ted Ginn Jr. could prove to be an underrated signing with his speed putting pressure on defenses. With Mark Ingram an established starter, they won't have to ask too much of Peterson in a potentially deadly committee that should prove to be a better version of the old Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister, and Reggie Bush trio.

The defense basically has nowhere to go but up, and I think it will thanks to top corner Marshon Lattimore falling to them in the draft, an overhauled linebacker group, and better health for former high draft picks Sheldon Rankins, Hau'oli Kikaha, and P.J. Williams. Rankins, Kikaha, third round pick Trey Hendrickson, and under the radar signing Alex Okafor should help relentless defensive end Cameron Jordan in the pass rush department while Lattimore, Williams, and second round pick Marcus Williams pick up the slack in coverage. I'm not saying they'll suddenly become the '85 Bears, but if this unit could just avoid being horrendous again, they should at least get back to .500.

Lions under 8 wins
Last year: 9-7. Expected: 7.7-8.3

I think they're due for some regression to the mean after eight of their nine wins were of the one-score variety while they only had five losses in those kind of games. Matthew Stafford can't pull out these close games forever, and slowing the pace down to hide the defense like they did in the second half of the year can only take you so far. A healthy Ameer Abdullah running the ball would help after only playing two games last year, though, and signing T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner to bolster the right side of the line should help balance the offense in theory. You could also almost talk me into the over because they added intriguing third round pick Kenny Golladay as a true split end across from Marvin Jones with Golden Tate in the slot, Eric Ebron at tight end, and Theo Riddick out of the backfield to form a dangerous set of targets, but left tackle Taylor Decker missing opening the season on the PUP list is cause for concern.

And they're probably not winning any games purely on defense after ranking dead last in DVOA in terms of overall rank and against the pass. Ziggy Ansah only finished with two sacks due in part to nagging injuries, and given that Kerry Hyder tore his Achilles after logging eight sacks out of nowhere, the pass rush is a major worry. They'll need quiet addition Cornelius Washington to exceed expectations on the edge because the corners behind Darius Slay are not a strength. Maybe first round pick Jarrad Davis moving Tahir Whitehead back to outside linebacker will strengthen this unit enough against the run to make it better than average, but I'm not counting on it.

Eagles over 8 wins
Last year: 7-9. Expected: 9-7

There are some indicators of this team being better than a typical 7 win team last year like their unfortunate 1-6 record in one-score games and 5-1 record when right tackle Lane Johnson wasn't suspended. Now Johnson is out of trouble, and they added Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to give second year QB Carson Wentz better weapons on the outside. I'm not sure how well LeGarrette Blount will run in Doug Pederson's offense, but the short passing game can make up for it with Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz, who should have a big year in the wake of the Jordan Matthews trade.

The front seven is loaded after adding Timmy Jernigan, Chris Long, and first round pick Derek Barnett to the defensive line and holding onto talented linebacker Mychal Kendricks. With strong safety play, they just need second year corner Jalen Mills and newly acquired Ronald Darby to reach their potential in order to have a true shutdown unit. I like the makeup of this overall roster, though, and with a special teams unit that ranked second in Football Outsiders' DVOA, I'm relatively confident in the Over here.
Fletcher Cox practically lives in the backfield.
Redskins under 7.5 wins
Last year: 8-7-1. Expected: 8.3-7.7


Promoting Greg Manusky to defensive coordinator should be an improvement over Joe Barry, but with offensive coordinator Sean McVay and receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon leaving for greener pastures, that's a lot of change to deal with. Terrelle Pryor is an exciting signing, slot man Jamison Crowder is ready for an increased role, and last year's first round pick Josh Doctson is now healthy, so if they can get a full year out of Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins should still be able to lead a lethal passing attack. It may take time to get on the same page with the new receivers and head coach Jay Gruden calling the plays now, though, and their running game isn't inspiring. Rob Kelley did decently enough in nine starts but lacks upside while fourth round pick Semaje Perine did not establish himself in the preseason.

Manusky will have his work cut out for him because the defensive side of the ball definitely has some holes. Maybe the Alabama players they picked in the first two rounds, Jonathan Allen and Ryan Anderson, can bring some toughness to a front seven that looks like it will be susceptible to the run again. They do have a few good pass rushers and a cornerback group that looks solid enough on paper, but their safeties could give up a lot of big plays to the tough slate of offenses on their schedule. I think they can hover around .500, but I'm leaning towards the Under considering their competition.

Bears under 5.5 wins
Last year: 3-13. Expected: 4.8-11.2


On the one hand, they are bound to be better than 1-6 in one-score games again, but on the other, it's hard to get too hopeful about this passing game. Following up a "three year, $45 million" deal for TB backup Mike Glennon with a senseless trade up for Mitchell Trubisky makes their quarterback situation murky in the short term, and replacing Alshon Jeffery with Kendall Wright and Marcus Wheaton in free agency is a huge downgrade even if you're optimistic about Wright getting back to his early career form. Losing a potential #1 receiver Cameron Meredith to a major knee injury in the preseason sucks, especially with former 7th overall pick Kevin White has struggled with health and effectiveness, and the addition of tight end Dion Sims will be felt more on the ground than through the air. That rushing attack is the lone reason for optimism with emerging star Jordan Howard running behind a strong set of blockers while fourth round pick Tarik Cohen looks like an electric change of pace 'back.

The strengths are mirrored a bit on the other side of the ball, although I'm more optimistic about DC Vic Fangio getting the most out of fourth round pick Eddie Jackson and their reasonable free agent signings in a rebuilt secondary. If so, then there's potential on this side of the ball now that the front seven is back to full strength. The injuries to nose tackle Eddie Goldman and inside linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman decimated their run defense, but with them back and Leonard Floyd, Akiem Hicks, and Willie Young as pass rushers, there are a lot of good players up front. That alone tempts me into taking the Over, but for now I'll stick with them staying the course in last place.

Rams under 5.5 wins
Last year: 4-12. Expected: 3.3-12.7

Things are going in the right direction now that head coach Jeff Fisher and DC Gregg Williams have been replaced by Sean McVay and Wade Phillips, but the roster still hasn't improved enough to warrant an Over for me after all four of their wins were by less than a touchdown to exceed their expected total. I want to believe in Jared Goff despite his dismal season because the offensive scheme, line, and supporting cast was a trifecta of a bad situation around him. The additions of McVay, veterans Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan at left tackle and center, and wide receivers Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Josh Reynolds should leave no excuses if he doesn't show some growth, though, and the same could be said for running back Todd Gurley. After exploding for 566 yards on 88 carries (6.43 yards per attempt, 141.5 yards per game) in his first four career starts, he's only put up 1,416 yards in his last 24 games despite 413 carries (3.43 Y/A, 59 Y/G). He showed some more receiving potential as a sophomore at least, so let's see if it was entirely the surrounding circumstances.

The switch to Phillips' 3-4 could have some fits and starts, but he can make it work as one of the best coordinators across the league. That is, if star defensive lineman Aaron Donald shows up after holding out for a new contract because he is one of the most impactful defenders in the game. Without him and Dominique Easley, who unfortunately tore his ACL last month, the front seven has some talent against the run but is lacking in the pass rushing department. Bringing Kayvon Webster with him from Denver allows Phillips to call for man coverage along with top corner Trumaine Johnson, but the rest of the secondary might not hold up without pressure. They should still be solid overall, but I don't think they can win games by themselves.

49ers over 4.5 wins
Last year: 2-14. Expected: 4.2-11.8

It's basically a blank slate for new head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch after they turned over more than half the roster, so you have to take a lot of last year's numbers with a grain of salt, even if they're due for some positive regression after underachieving and having a 1-5 record in one-score games. If you've followed my past writings or tweets, you'll know I've long been a fan of Shanahan, though, and he brought over guys that know his system in Brian Hoyer, Pierre Garçon, Aldrick Robinson, and Logan Paulsen to help demonstrate his offensive genius. The early results seem to indicate that Marquise Goodwin, their other offensive free agent signing, is learning how to harness his prolific athleticism for more than just go-routes, and that fifth round tight end George Kittle and undrafted running back Matt Breida are the terrific sleepers many of us thought they were. All of that being said, the relative success of this group will depend on the line because despite tackles Joe Staley and Trent Brown being a strong starting point, the guard play could severely limit the running game that predicates the dangerous play-action passes. Carlos Hyde may have the ability to create on his own as well as anyone in the league, but having recent trade addition Laken Tomlinson provide a boost could determine the ceiling of this unit.


After investing on defense so heavily in the draft in recent years, there is a lot of potential on that side of the ball, as well, but Robert Saleh was a late hire due to Shanahan's Super Bowl commitments and might have some growing pains as a rookie coordinator. In bringing over the Seattle 4-3 Under scheme, he may bring out the best in Eric Reid, Jimmie Ward, Navarro Bowman, and first round pick Reuben Foster as they try to emulate their Seahawk counterparts at safety and linebacker. However, while K'Waun Williams was signed to be the nickelback, Rashard Robinson and Dontae Johnson have not proven to be Sherman-like corners on the outside yet despite their lanky frames, and given Ward's durability issues, the all-important Earl Thomas role might fall to Jaquiski Tartt, who is better suited at strong safety, or Lorenzo Jerome, whom I loved from the Senior Bowl but might not be ready just yet as an undrafted free agent. The hope of course is that the defensive line can get enough pressure to cover up for them, and the switch to a one-gap scheme and rotation along that front will be interesting to monitor. Last year's #7 overall pick DeForest Buckner should excel as a 3-technique defensive tackle while Earl Mitchell looks like a good signing at nose tackle, and then #3 pick pick Solomon Thomas draws comparisons to Michael Bennett for his ability to kick inside on passing downs after starting at defensive end in the base defense. Arik Armstead will also get looks as an interior rusher in the nickel since he is not the prototypical LEO defensive end, so Aaron Lynch and Elvis Dumervil figure to get plenty of opportunity as edge rushers along with starting strongside 'backer Eli Harold. I think there is enough potential here to show a lot of improvement, but since this is still mostly in theory, I'm not going to call for the playoffs or even a .500 record yet. Luckily, this total is low enough that even if being more competitive doesn't result in a ton of W's, they can still pull out enough to hit the Over.

Bonus content: since I've already gone over every team, I'll keep my thoughts on picks minimal this week. I'm off to a bad start after the guy I forgot to pick for Rookie of the Year after talking him up, Kareem Hunt, set the NFL record for yards from scrimmage in a debut, but there should be some winners in here.

Browns +9.5 versus Steelers: Maybe I'm just gun-shy after laying so many points last night, but this is too many points to ignore for a home underdog considering Ben Roethlisberger's home/road splits, even if he tends to do well in his home state.

Cardinals -1.5 at Lions: The line has shifted to the road team for a reason: they're better, as I explained above.

Texans -5.5 versus Jaguars: I don't feel comfortable with this large of a spread in what's likely to be a low-scoring affair given the quarterbacks, but until Jacksonville and Blake Bortles prove they're better under a new coach, I can't pick them.

Falcons -6.5 at Bears: It's going to be hard for Glennon to put up enough points to keep up with Atlanta.

Redskins -0.5 versus Eagles: The spread shows that Philly is the better team like I said, but the home field advantage pushes things just enough that Washington is favored for a reason in a close one.

Jets +7.5 at Bills: Ugh, is it possible for both of them to lose? LeSean McCoy might put up big totals but will have a hard time being efficient against the NY line, so even if Buffalo wins, it probably won't be by much.

Rams -3.5 versus Colts: The importance of Andrew Luck is on display in this seven point swing.

Packers -3.5 versus Seahawks: Despite this line being higher than it should be, I like Green Bay to continue its streak at home versus Seattle, even if these teams are pretty evenly matched.

 49ers +5.5 versus Panthers: San Francisco coaches are good in their openers, so even if McCaffrey runs wild in his return to the Bay Area, give me the points at home.

Giants +3.5 at Cowboys: The statuses of OBJ and Zeke has me questioning this a bit, but NY knows how to defend this team and dealt them their only two losses in the regular season when Dallas played their starters the whole game. If Beckham is ruled out before the game, I'll probably change this in my pick'em pool, however.

Vikings -3.5 versus Saints: That extra half point is a little worrisome, but I like Minnesota's improved offense to get the better of New Orleans' improved defense.

Chargers +3.5 at Broncos: I like them as the better team this year and to show it by winning outright here.

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