This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because of my well-documented fondness for the NBA Lottery, and the absolute chaos of this year's drawing is a great example why. Is it considered possibly the weakest, most wide-open class since the infamous 2013 draft? Yes. Was it still awesome to see the unexpected Jazz logo at #10 to indicate that two teams made large jumps into the top-4? Also yes.
It's always fun to talk through the implications of the random bounces of ping pong balls, so here are my main reactionary thoughts followed by a breakdown of how each previously traded pick turned out.
- After ESPN's Elle Duncan pointed out in the buildup that the Atlanta Hawks had never won the #1 pick, their small 3% chance of moving from the #10 pick to the top spot came through. They're the biggest long shot winner in 10 years, when the Cavaliers had a 1.7% chance of moving from 9th to 1st, and it is the second-largest jump in lottery history, behind only the 1993 Magic's rise from the 11 spot despite the low 1.52% odds. Shoot, they're the first ever team from the Play-In Tournament to move up in the lottery!
Really, this is what the updated format intended when the NBA flattened the odds of the 2019 draft to limit tanking. The Hawks' 3% was obviously low, but it was still higher than some prior wins like the Bulls in '08 (1.7%) or the Cavs in '11 (2.8%) and the aforementioned '14, even though Atlanta finished higher in the standings. Now a new door of possibilities is open for a team that had fallen onto the "treadmill of mediocrity" with three straight years in the Play-In, and it will be fascinating to see how they approach it. - I wrote in my last post how it already seemed like a certainty that the Hawks would split up their star point guards, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, and now I'm wondering if they might just trade both and pivot into a full rebuild around this new #1 pick. Or perhaps this is their top new trade chip to make a move for another All-Star. After extending Onyeka Okongwu with a 4 year, $61,980,000 deal that kicks in this year, it already seemed like Clint Capela could be on the move as he enterers the last year of his contract, as well. That could be even more true if they keep the pick since the top prospect in the NBA's first ever composite ranking is French big man Alex Sarr, though he has some inside-outside potential. Another factor is that moving up in the draft means a higher rookie-scale contract, and that will put them close to the luxury tax line.
The NBA sent teams a composite ranking of the Top 10 2024 draft prospects, as determined by a blend of publicly available rankings, a panel of experts and a retained-scouting service. This determines which teams will receive medical results based on which tiers players fall in.… pic.twitter.com/Nl4IeyjYWq
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 3, 2024
- Funnily enough, Young just changed agencies from Klutch Sports to CAA this past week, so those rumors involving the Lakers with their Klutch ties might focus more on Murray again. The Spurs possibility for either guard still looms, and that's especially true now that they just added even more ammo with today's results. Not only did they move up from #5 to #4, but Toronto dropping from #6 to #8 means that their top-6 protected pick from last year's odd Jakob Poeltl trade (more on that below) conveys to San Antonio. Now they have two high picks this year, the Hawks' 2025 and 2027 unprotected 1st rounders, a top-10 protected Bulls 1st next year, a top-14 protected Hornets 1st next year, and swap rights with the Hawks, Celtics, and Mavericks in 2026, 2028, and 2030, respectively. As I wrote, they finished the season much stronger than they started once they put real lineups around Victor Wembanyama, and after winning 7 of their last 11 games to drop down to the 5th spot, the basketball gods rewarded them with the 54.15% chance of getting that Raptors pick coming through.
- It felt weird to have the drawing on a Sunday instead of the usual Tuesday, but one thing that felt familiar was the Nets winning a top-3 pick for another team. To the dismay of their fans, the unprotected pick that they owe the Rockets moved up from #9 to #3 after they previously provided the Celtics with the eventual selections of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in 2016 and 2017.
It's obviously a coup for Houston since there was only a 5.23% chance of that picking ending up there, but it could've been an even better outcome if it was their own pick that moved up instead of Brooklyn's. There was a 7.12% chance that their top-4 protected pick moved up from #12 to give them a similar situation to what the Spurs have with two top-10 picks, and in this case their pick obligation to Oklahoma City would've become only two 2nd rounders. Of course, this a team that already has almost too much young talent than it has minutes for, but they still could've added extra draft capital as they're expected to be aggressive on the trade market. - Three teams moving up in the lottery means that there were some clear losers today, namely the Hornets, Trail Blazers, and especially the Pistons. This will be the third straight year that Detroit drafts from the 5th spot, and that's even with having the worst record in the league the last two seasons. Dropping to #5 is technically the most likely scenario for the worst team with a 47.86% chance (again the new format wants to prevent tanking), but that is a tough pill to swallow after back to back years of just 14 and 17 wins. The other two each dropped three spots after tying for the third-worst record, 21-61, and following last year's lottery that provided them with the 2nd and 3rd selections. They can't seem to escape each other, and after a coin flip tiebreaker, Charlotte will once again pick before Portland.
- The one bottom feeder who held their spot was Washington, whose 15 wins was just one more than Detroit's total, and the 13.42% chance of them staying at #2 came to fruition. They went international with French wing Bilal Coulibaly last year, and there's a decent chance that happens again here between Sarr, Serbia's Nikola Topic, or another Frenchman, Zaccharie Risacher. With their roster mostly a blank canvas, they can afford to take a patient approach with this pick, and you have to wonder if their veteran forwards Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija could become available. Both are on descending contracts, and while the latter's is just going into effect this year, it must look appealing to other teams.
- As shown in the NBA's video of the actual drawing, the 6 ball was an influential one with an appearance in all four winning combinations. The lowest number drawn is typically the key since the distribution goes in order of the standings: the worst teams have the most four-digit sequences, with 1 being included in most of those. The first drawing of 6-10-14-13 having so many high numbers opened up the possibilities of a big jump, and Atlanta was the beneficiary from the #10 spot. The numbers then went low with 7-6-1-5, so it was one of the worst teams, Washington. Another relatively high draw of 6-7-11-9 bumped Houston (via Brooklyn) up from #9, and finally, San Antonio's one spot move was due to the mostly low 3-10-6-5 combination. Unsurprisingly, having teams with small odds win meant that there was no need to re-draw at all, unlike a year ago when the Spurs kept getting called.
I mentioned a couple of the trades that provided these picks above, but like last year, I want to really dig into the final tally of where previously dealt 1st rounders ended up and how they got there. Overall, 10 teams lost control of their pick, and that's before even looking at the 2nd round. As you can see in the full draft order on Tankathon.com, only four teams have their own pick in that stanza!
Rockets receive the #3 pick from the Nets
I touched on this one above, but here's a reminder of why Houston has this pick: the James Harden Trade v.2 from January of 2021. It's now yielded Tari Eason in the 2022 draft, Cam Whitmore in the 2023 draft (after changing the years of the pick in the PJ Tucker trade), and this selection. To top things off, Brooklyn still owes a potential pick swap next year and a 2026 1st, as well.
You have to wonder what was going through the heads of the Nets and their fans in the first round of the playoffs when watching Harden and Kyrie Irving face each other. Going 13-3 when the two of them and Kevin Durant were active together will forever make that team one of the biggest What If's of recent history.
Spurs receive the #8 pick from the Raptors
I mentioned it from the San Antonio side already, but Toronto making the surprising Poeltl trade last year to eventually lose in the Play-In looks pretty bad now. Becoming sellers a year too late put them in position to potentially keep their top-6 protected pick since they ended up with the sixth-worst record and a 45.85% chance of staying in that range. Instead, they lose out on it and now have to watch Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Precious Achiuwa duke it out in the second round.
On the bright side, finishing their obligation to the Spurs means that they now have full control of all of their 1st rounders going forward, namely with next year's stronger class, and they do still have a decent pick this year from the Siakam trade (see below).
Thunder receive the #12 pick from the Rockets
It's taken five years, but OKC is finally getting a nice return on the pick front from the trade of Russell Westbrook for Chris Paul. As mentioned, there was a 7.12% chance that Houston moved into the top-4 to keep this pick, but instead the rich get richer as the West's #1 seed has another lottery pick to play with as they leave the drawing room in control of the #12 pick for a third straight year. And the Rockets still owe a potential pick swap next year along with a top-4 protected pick in 2026.
Trail Blazers receive the #14 pick from the Warriors
There was a 3.4% chance of Golden State moving into the top-4 to keep this pick, but even with as much movement this lottery had, that was too much of a long shot. On the one hand, it's nice to get this obligation out of the way now with a middling pick in this weak class as I've been saying, but on the other hand, it obviously would've been better to have a top-4 pick in hand to dangle in trades. Now, they'll be able to offer two unprotected future 1st rounders come draft night (either '25 and '27 or '26 and '28 due to the Stepien Rule), and they could also offer reverse protections on their 2030 pick that's currently top-20 protected but immediately converts to a 2nd if not conveyed.
It was quite the journey for this pick to wind up in Portland. It was originally sent to Memphis as part of the Andre Iguodala salary dump in 2019 to stay under the hard cap because of the D'Angelo Russell sign-and-trade. The Grizzlies held onto it until last year when the pick was part of the package going to the Celtics for Marcus Smart, and then Boston moved it later in the offseason to acquire Jrue Holiday. Which basically means this pick is one of the results of trading Damian Lillard.
Pelicans (potentially) receive the #17 pick from the Lakers
New Orleans has until June 1st to decide whether to take this pick now or defer it to 2025 as the last piece of the Anthony Davis trade. Not to sound like a broken record, but given how this draft class is viewed, I'd guess that they do push it back another year with the hope of a higher pick in a much more exciting potential pool of prospects. It stands to reason that there's a decent chance of L.A. having a worse record since they had a pretty healthy season with 76 games from Davis and 71 from LeBron James, who will be turning 40 in December and also could opt out of his contract at the end of June.
Raptors receive the #19 pick from the Pacers
There was some fluctuation with how high this pick might end up from the Siakam trade as the middle of the East and bottom of the West were so clustered, and Indiana ended up in a four-way tie for the 16th pick. Toronto ended up on the short-end of the tiebreakers since this top-3 protected pick was guaranteed to be theirs once Indy qualified for the playoffs.
They still have Bruce Brown (on a team option) from that trade along with the Pacers' top-4 protected 2026 1st rounder and Jordan Nwora's Bird Rights. Kira Lewis and the other 1st rounder involved ended up re-routed to Utah as part of the Kelly Olynyk deal below.
Pelicans swap the #23 pick for #21 from the Bucks
The Jrue Holiday trade to Milwaukee happened back in 2020, but the draft assets involved didn't start until now with this pick swap, which ended up being just two spots. The Bucks still owe unprotected 1st rounders next year and in 2027 along with another swap in 2026, but they won the title following this trade. I'd say that was worth it.
Knicks receive the #24 pick from the Mavericks
As I wrote in last year's version of this post, nobody liked how Dallas tanked at the very end to keep their top-10 protected pick, but it did make sense to end up with Derreck Lively II in tow rather than waiting for this pick that became way worse.
This finally wraps up the draft capital return on the original Kristaps Porzingis trade in 2019. Before this pick, New York received a 2021 1st that became #20, and they traded down to #25 to pick up a Detroit 2024 2nd and then take Quentin Grimes. Coincidentally, both that pick and Grimes were traded this past season between the trades for Anunoby and the combination of Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks.
Wizards receive the #26 pick from the Clippers
This one was a bit interesting because the Clips originally included this pick as part of the infamous haul for Paul George in 2019, and then the Thunder decided to trade it at the deadline just to gain unprotected swap rights with the Mavs in 2028. OKC already has more extra picks than it can roster, so they're betting on the potential jump up four years from now being worth this late 1st.
Dallas took on that risk in order to use this pick to add Daniel Gafford from Washington, which has worked out perfectly for them. And as it so happens, the Thunder helping the Mavs this season has led to the two of them battling it out in the second round.
Jazz receive the #29 pick from the Thunder
Another complex journey to follow from OKC. Leading up to last year's draft, they traded the worst of the 2024 1st rounders that they had (which ended up as their own), a high 2nd, and a future 2nd for a 2029 Denver 1st. Like the move above, it was a bet against a rival team's win-now roster down the line at the cost of a late pick in the short term.
The Nuggets then sent this pick to the Pacers to move up in the draft as well as add another immediate pick. Indy later included it in their Siakam deal, and then Toronto sent it to Utah for Olynyk, whom they already extended, and Ochai Agbaji.
Picks that did NOT convey
A few of these I can basically copy and paste from last year due to their heavy protections and bad teams staying bad:
- With the worst record in the league, the Pistons didn't come close to sending the top-18 protected pick that they owe from their trade for Isaiah Stewart during the 2020 draft. The pick initially went with Christian Wood in a sign-and-trade to the Rockets, they sent it with a 2023 Wizards 1st to OKC during the 2021 draft for Alperen Sengun at #16, and then it and the Wizards pick went to the Knicks in the trade for Ousmane Dieng in the 2022 draft. Detroit's pick is still protected for the top-13 in next year, the top-11 in 2026, and the top-9 in 2027, at which point it would convert to a 2nd rounder that year.
- That Wizards pick originally came from the swap of John Wall for Westbrook and is still protected for the the top-10 next year and the top-8 in 2026 before becoming 2026 and 2027 2nd round picks. So for those scoring at home, the Knicks at one point could have had as many as four 1st round picks this year, but two of them are rolling over due to protections.
- Also during the 2021 draft, the Hornets sent a top-16 protected 1st to the Knicks to land Kai Jones at #19, and it wasn't close to conveying either as Charlotte finished tied for the third-worst record. The pick later went to the Hawks in the Cam Reddish trade and currently resides with the Spurs as part of the Murray trade. It is lottery protected again next year and then becomes 2026 and 2027 2nd round picks.
- Tying with Charlotte for the third-worst record, Portland held onto the lottery protected 1st that they sent with Derrick Jones to Chicago in the 2021 three-way trade that landed them Larry Nance Jr. It's still lottery protected all the way through 2028 before becoming a 2nd rounder that year.
A new one that came up this year was Utah's top-10 protected pick from the Derrick Favors salary dump back in 2021. Like last year, the Jazz faded hard after selling at the deadline, and they finished with the eighth-worst record. That meant a 99.62% chance of keeping the pick, and although two teams behind them actually jumped up, that held true. It's still protected for the top-10 next year and the top-8 in 2026, and then the obligation would extinguish if not conveyed.
The one benefit to Sacramento dropping five of their last seven and flaming out in the Play-In was that they ended up in the 13th spot to keep their top-14 protected pick from the Kevin Huerter trade in 2022. This could actually also work to Atlanta's benefit since they currently don't own a 2025 1st rounder, and the protection drops to top-12 next year and top-10 in 2026 before converting to 2026 and 2027 2nd rounders.
Lastly, Phoenix creatively traded away pick swaps first to Washington and then to Memphis in order to add Bradley Beal and a few 2nd round picks. The former was hilarious considering the Wizards' rebuild, and the latter didn't come close to mattering either after all of the Grizzlies' injuries. The Suns still owe swap rights to the Wiz in 2026, 2028, and 2030 and to the Griz in 2030 (and 2026 from a subsequent deal), but it will be interesting to see if they try to "Horcrux" away further control of those picks for more small assets.
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