Quick Review of Two Veteran Forwards Dealt Ahead of the Deadline

Bucks receive:

P.J. Tucker

$7,969,537

Rodions Kurucs

$1,780,152

$1,861,068

Their 2022 1st round pick back

Rockets receive:

D.J. Augustin

$6,666,667

$7,000,000

$7,333,333

D.J. Wilson

$4,548,280

Right to swap their 2021 2nd round pick for Bucks 2021 1st round pick (protected 1-9)

Bucks 2023 1st round pick

Suns receive:

Torrey Craig

$1,620,564

I don't think the final deal will officially be a three teamer, but Milwaukee moving Craig is pretty much a direct result of adding another forward in Tucker. It was a bit surprising that he didn't work out as a low-risk signing at the minimum, but taking a look at an experienced wing defender is well worth it for Phoenix, who is essentially getting him for free since they had an open roster spot. Likewise, the cost of an addition wasn't very prohibitive at all for the Bucks, who were able to dump another unsuccessful offseason signing in Augustin. At a base level, the only value they're giving up is moving back from their pick in the late 20's (#25 as of this writing) to Houston's pick in the early 30's (currently #33). Swapping their 2022 1st that they already owed for the 2023 version was necessary due to the Stepien Rule that prevents teams from being without any 1st round picks in consecutive years (2021 and 2022 in this case), and it could possibly allow them to add a helpful piece to their core sooner rather than later.

The question is whether Tucker has enough left in the tank to be worth any value at all as he's seen a sharp decline in his age-35 season. Part of that could be due to no longer having the likes of James Harden, Chris Paul, or Russell Westbrook create wide open looks for him while new playmaker John Wall has been in and out of the lineup. However, him wearing down under a heavy workload as a small-ball center was a potential consequence that I was worried about when they fully committed to that at last year's trade deadline. After shooting 36.9% on 3's with 1.6 makes per game and a 15.8% defensive rebound rate in his first three years as a Rocket, he's down to 31.4%, only 0.8 made 3's, and a guard-like 13.4% rate. His numbers should perk up now that he's on a great team again, though, and his tough defense across multiple positions can help unlock more options for them in the playoffs as they try switching more. Since opponents seems to adjust to Coach Budenholzer's traditional drop coverage every year come postseason time, having that curveball to throw out there could make this swap of two D.J.'s for P.J. well worth it. At the very least, they got out of the guaranteed money due to their incumbent Texas Longhorn, Augustin, next season since their new one is on an expiring deal, and they likely can get similar production in the buyout market or even another minor move before the deadline for a backup point guard. If they decline the team option on Kurucs already and waive him, they could now potentially have three open roster spots and some breathing room under their hard cap from using the MLE on Augustin.

For the Rockets, this is a bit of an underwhelming return but not necessarily a bad one. There never seemed to be that strong of a market for Tucker based on the reporting out there, so getting literally anything for a pending free agent who was no longer playing for you is likely worth it. Although pushing the Bucks 1st rounder they owned a year down the line delays the gratification, it does theoretically increase the upside of it since there's more of a chance that they won't be quite as good by then as they have been in recent years. And in addition to having a better chance at drafting a prospect they like with the bump up in picks this year, moving back into the end 1st round also secures that player under a rookie scale contract rather than having to negotiate with a 2nd round selection. They also get a trial run with Wilson, who only just turned 25 and was talented enough to be drafted 17th overall in 2017. He hasn't shown the ability to score with any efficiency on a consistent basis yet, but he is strong on the boards (19.4% career defensive rebound rate) who has shot better than 35% on 3's in two of the past three seasons at 6'10", 231 lbs.

Heat receive:

Trevor Ariza

$12,800,000

Thunder receive:

Meyers Leonard

$9,400,000

$10,152,000

Heat 2027 2nd round pick

This one is pretty straightforward and a little similar to the Houston situation for Oklahoma City. Ariza hasn't played at all for the team since being dealt in a series of trades as salary filler last offseason, so adding yet another pick is almost like found money for them. This one is literally as far down the line as possible, but after already being in control of three of Miami's picks, why not add one more? Leonard will already have his team option for next season declined as he won't even report to the team. Lastly, this uses up about half of the $19.5 million Danilo Gallinari Trade Exception that expires this summer while creating a new Trade Exception that's equivalent to Ariza's salary and won't expire until a year from now.

The well traveled wing is now 35 but should fit in right away with Miami's culture as a tough 3-and-D veteran. Ariza nailed 40% of his 3's in a small sample size with Portland the last we saw him, and overall he's shot 36.2% from deep on a healthy 6 attempts per game in the past eight seasons. Having another long defender capable of guarding multiple positions on the perimeter can help make up for what they lost in Jae Crowder and haven't gotten from Moe Harkless. And for this meager cost, it's more great business that you'd expect from an organization like the Heat.