Early Draft Talk: the Walker/Horford Trade and What's at Stake in the NBA Lottery

 Thunder receive:

Player	20-21	21-22	22-23
Kemba Walker	$34,379,100	$36,016,200	$37,653,300

#16 pick

2025 2nd round pick (better of Celtics' or Grizzlies')

Celtics receive:

Player

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

Al Horford

$27,500,000

$27,000,000

$26,500,000

Moses Brown

$1,250,000

$1,701,593

$1,846,738

$1,997,718

2023 2nd round pick (least favorable of Thunder's, Wizards', or the better of Mavericks' or Heat's)

That was quick. Just over two weeks after transitioning from coaching to the front office, Brad Stevens already made his first move, and it is a big one. Walker going from the All-Star who turned around the young Boston team that underachieved with Kyrie Irving in 2019 to needing a mid-1st round pick attached to shed his salary now is a pretty stunning turnaround. Knee issues have limited the 31 year old to playing in just 119 of 166 possible games, though, so the $73.7 million due to him over the next two seasons wasn't too appealing to Boston, especially as Jayson Tatum's max contract kicks in this summer. Hence the return of Horford, who was a valuable Celtic both on the floor and in the locker room from 2016 to 2019 and only has $41.5 million guaranteed on his contract. The 2022-23 season could add another $5 million in guarantees if the team makes the Finals next season or become fully guaranteed if they win it, which of course would be worth it.

With these savings, Boston is now about $9.4 million under the luxury tax threshold as they look to re-sign Evan Fournier without going too deep into it, and if they do retain him on the wing, they will have some interesting lineup choices to pick from. Barring the addition of a new point guard, it would seem that Marcus Smart, who is a year away from free agency himself, would be the nominal starter at that position with the offense running through Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Fournier could be a high end sixth man or start as a third wing with the other two both capable of battling against power forwards, and Horford could play center like he is best suited for at this point of his career. There is also the possibility to put Horford at power forward next to exciting young center Robert Williams or even 7'2" prospect Brown if they really want to play big or if Fournier signs elsewhere. The fact that this big of a move was made before hiring a new coach and knowing a preference in style might be the most surprising aspect of this. In some ways, it is the type of move Stevens' predecessor Danny Ainge would make by not being afraid to deal a big name to do what he thinks is best for the team, but the draft compensation here is a tough pill to swallow.

For Oklahoma City, this is business as usual with Sam Presti extracting value for yet another 1st round pick, which gives him three in this year's strong class. They have more than enough cap flexibility to absorb the salary of Walker, who can be a good veteran leader for their numerous young players like Horford and Chris Paul were before being moved. However, the inclusion of Brown is a surprising add-on after he was just converted from a two-way contract in March and under team control for at least three more seasons. The 21 year old averaged 8.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks in only 21.4 minutes and appears to be a useful rotational player, so perhaps he can add more value to Boston's side of the deal than there initially appears to be. Still, this is great work to get a pick right outside of the lottery just to take on salary of a player that is still very good when healthy and could potentially be moved to a contender again down the line.

Whether or not this pick ends up as the Thunder's 2nd or 3rd pick of the draft will come down to the lottery this week, which is always one of my favorite days of the year. Last year, I wrote a primer as a reminder of how the system was changed a couple of years ago along with a little brief history of past winners, which had a change in trends since I wrote about the system in 2017. Some of the odds of the picks were touched on in my end of the season power rankings, but I want to dig more into what is at stake on Tuesday night with regards to past trades affected by lottery protections.

Rockets-Thunder

As part of the Russell Westbrook for Chris Paul trade in July of 2019, Oklahoma City shrewdly included pick swaps in 2021 and 2025 as part of the deal in addition to 1st round picks in 2024 and 2026, with top-4 protection on each. Less than two years later, that seemingly innocuous add-on looks like a stroke of genius after Houston's rapid fall from perennial playoff team to overhauled rebuilding project. Since the revamped lottery system gives the three worst teams the same odds for the top-4, finishing in that range would already give the Rockets the best chance at keeping their protected pick, but they took it much further. 

After starting 3-6 with the disgruntled James Harden, trading him, and surprisingly winning 8 of their next 12 following the move...Houston suffered a 20 game losing streak and went 6-45 (!!) overall in their final 51 games. A combination of injuries, a rookie head coach, and transitioning to full on "developmental" mode with young players contributed to that, but my goodness was it ugly. And after all of the losing, they still only have a 52.14% chance of getting a top-4 pick in this loaded draft due to the pick swap. The other possibility with that remaining 47.86%? Ending up with only the 18th pick from Miami that Oklahoma City also controls. Suffice it to say that a selection in the back half of the round would be a pretty devastating result after this embarrassing of a season, so there is a lot riding on these ping pong balls combinations.

Timberwolves-Warriors

I covered how these teams got to this point with the pick in January and how Minnesota finished 16-25 under new coach Chris Finch, including a 9-7 finish, in my end of season rankings. They went from the worst record in the league at 7-24 with a 40.17% chance of keeping their top-3 protected pick to the 6th worst record and only a 27.61% of having it. Among that barrage of wins was one against Golden State, and the Warriors could regret that loss even more after the picks are drawn. On the one hand, the Timberwolves moving down the draft order does increase the chances of the pick conveying, but on the other, they finished one game away from a three-way tie for the 4th spot in a draft with a clear tier of five elite players. Although it would've come down to coin flips for exact positioning, Golden State could've at least had a chance for the 5th pick while still having odds of losing the pick of only around 32%.

As it stands, the Warriors have just a 9.62% chance at the #4 pick for one of those top players, an 8.62% chance for #6 where someone maybe falls, and a 54.15% chance at the 7-10 range. They do also have their own lottery pick after being the first unfortunate #8 seed to miss the playoffs due to the new play-in format, but that has a 97.59% chance of becoming the #14 pick. Maybe lightning strikes, and they surpass the 2008 Bulls and 2014 Cavaliers (1.7% chance each as the 9th worst teams) as the least likely winners of the #1 pick ever (0.5%) while also getting #4 from Minnesota. More likely, though, is something like #7 and #14 that they could try to package together for a move up or for a proven veteran. Unless a draft and stash foreign player is picked at #14, it wouldn't appear that they have room on the roster to keep both selections to develop while trying to become contenders again with Klay Thompson healthy to rejoin MVP finalist Stephen Curry in the lineup. One thing is clear, though: it is in their best interest for this pick to convey now even if the prospect of getting Minnesota's unprotected pick next year is appealing. For one, it's often best to have the asset now to develop or trade rather than waiting on it; for another, next year's class still doesn't appear to have the star power like this one; and most importantly, there is far from a guarantee that the Timberwolves will be this bad again after the upward trajectory they went on down the stretch along with the addition of a top-3 pick.

Bulls-Magic

The Nikola Vucevic trade didn't work out at all like anyone thought it would for Chicago as they went 12-17 after the move to finish 11th in the East and with the 8th worst record overall. At the time, it seemed like the road to qualifying for at least the play-in tournament was wide open, so the top-4 protection on this pick wouldn't matter too much since it would be in the low to high teens. Unfortunately, leading scorer Zach LaVine reaggravated his sprained ankle and then missed 11 games due to testing positive for COVID-19, which essentially sunk their postseason hopes. The silver lining to that is they now have a 20.3% chance of keeping their pick, but the lack of wins means that they could be handing over the 8th (34.5% chance) or 9th (36.2%) in the most likely scenarios.

That would help accelerate Orlando's rebuild along with their own pick that is guaranteed to be at least in the top-7 since it is seeded 3rd in the lottery. Chicago moving up to the top-4 would possibly be a double whammy against Orlando if it pushes them down, so they really need the 79.7% chance of that not happening to come through. This is the last of the picks that can be decided by the bounce of the ping pong balls, and that's already plenty of drama for one lottery drawing. For what it's worth, OKC didn't get the Houston pick in my last spin on Tankathon.com, BUT they were gifted the #1 pick themselves while Golden State received #7 from Minnesota and Chicago received #9 from Chicago. May the odds be ever in Presti's favor, I suppose. For now, here's a peek behind the curtain at last year's actual drawing process, where the lowest number that appears often indicates the winner: