The NBA Lottery is finally here! After originally being scheduled for May 19th before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the teams that missed out on the playoffs will now find out where they will be picking in the 1st round. Because it's been 15 months since the last lottery and that one was the first in the new system, here is a quick primer for what to expect tonight.
More chances to move up
You can see in the graphic above that in addition to having a fourth drawing to move up to a higher pick, the odds of doing so were significantly flattened with the three worst teams now having the exact same number of lottery combinations (It's a little odd to me that they draw for the first four picks now while it's three teams with equal odds, but that's just my opinion). This change to discourage tanking came on the heels of the worst teams getting rewarded with the top pick more than ever. As I wrote when last digging into the system a few years ago, the teams with the #1 odds didn't win the lottery for the first ten years after the change to having 14 teams involved. Then as luck would have it, those teams in that position, which had a 25% chance for the 1st pick, won for four years in a row before last year's changing of the odds. That shift produced immediate results as the Pelicans moved up after tying for just the 7th worst record. They had a 6% chance of doing so instead of only 2.9% from that same position in previous years.The rich get richer
Even with the new changes, a top-5 pick is still guaranteed to the Warriors after five straight trips to the Finals. The departure of Kevin Durant and getting only five games combined between Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson due to injuries left the team with the league's worst record, so they have a 14% chance at the #1 spot and can only drop four spots from the drawing. It may not be a guaranteed top-4 pick anymore and only a 40.17% chance at the top-3 compared to 64.3% previously, but reinforcements will be on the way for their core of the Splash Brothers, Draymond Green, and now Andrew Wiggins to potentially give them a jolt right back into title contention. It could be somewhat similar to the Lakers getting James Worthy 1st overall as the reigning champions, the Celtics adding Kevin McHale to an ascending team that just won 61 games and would go on to win the title his rookie year, or the champion Celtics drafting Len Bias 2nd overall before his tragic death.
The McHale addition also included Robert Parish thanks to a trade down with the Warriors, coincidentally enough, and winning a high pick tonight could unlock more potential uses of the $17,185,185 trade exception they created when sending out Andre Iguodala last summer. They are highly unlikely to add a future Hall of Famer like Parish, but a top pick at least gives them options to trade it for a star that fits into that exception or trade down to acquire another asset like Boston did again when they won the 2017 lottery. Those options might be especially appealing this year since the top of the draft might not be a great fit for this team.
Landing Haliburton after a trade down might be my favorite scenario. I’ve viewed him as Livingston-like providing versatile lineups, and @MontePooleNBCS makes a great point about McCaw/Evans showing how that’s long been pursued https://t.co/ULKYobSDDv
— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) May 6, 2020
No clear #1 pick this year
Unlike last year when pretty much everyone expected Zion Williamson to go to whichever team won the lottery, there is not a clear consensus about who is worthy of the #1 selection. Anthony Edwards may be the name seen at the top most often with all of the tools to become an elite shooting guard, but there are questions around his decision making, efficiency, and defensive effort on a Georgia team that went just 5-13 in SEC play. LaMelo Ball certainly has his supporters as the best chance at a potential star thanks to his flair for passing as a point guard with a lot of size who plays a different style than his brother, Lonzo. Like Edwards, he also comes with uncertainty between his shooting form, shot selection, penchant to gamble for steals, and the fact that not a lot of scouts might have seen him last season after he moved to Australia to play for the bottom dweller Illawara Hawks and only ended up appearing in 13 games before shutting it down following a bone bruise. That is almost like an eternity compared to James Wiseman, however, who played in just three games for Memphis. The star big man was ruled ineligible because head coach Penny Hardaway paid for his family to move back when he was considered a school booster, got the ruling reduced to a 12 game suspension, and then withdrew from the program altogether. That leaves front offices to rely on the tape from high school, Team USA participation, and All-Star events that made him the presumptive top prospect coming into the season as a potential David Robinson-esque player, so like the other candidates at the top, there might not be a ton of confidence in taking him 1st overall. The list goes on with international prospects like Killian Hayes and Deni Avdija or more experienced college stars like Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, and Devin Vassell, which just goes to show you how wide open the top-10 is this year.
Only one pick is at risk of being lost
Unlike some past years where it's a 50/50 or 60/40 proposition that a team moves up to keep their protected pick, there isn't a lot of drama to watch for tonight since the only pick that could change ownership as a result of the draw is the Grizzlies' selection. Since it is top-6 protected for this year, the Celtics have a 97.6% chance of receiving it as the 14th pick. The odds of Memphis keeping it rely on a 0.5% chance for the #1 pick, 0.6% for #2, 0.6% for #3, and 0.7% for #4. Boston is already receiving the #30 pick from the Bucks in addition to their own, so they are highly likely to own three 1st round picks like they originally did going into last year's draft. We'll see if Danny Ainge continues to wheel and deal with those options come October 16th, but for now, let's just enjoy the absurdly interesting process that can determine franchises' fates tonight on ESPN at 5:30 PST!
For what it's worth, one last spin in Tankathon.com's simulation tool gave #1 to...the Hornets. May the odds be ever in your favor, MJ; you can thank me later.
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