Friday, September 11, 2020

NFL 2020 Win Totals, Breakout Players, and Week 1 Picks

We made it! After some serious doubt about whether there would be an NFL season in the year of COVID-19, kudos to the players, staff members, and league protocols for their diligence in preventing the spread of the virus. Now we can enjoy can enjoy America's biggest game and everything that comes with it. This post will go over picks for each team's win totals, Week 1 spreads, and breakout fantasy players. You can also check out my new post on The Sports Fan Journal, Ranking the Top-10 Rookie WR Situations.

These are win totals listed on FanDuel Sportsbook, which I hope will one day include California; the expected wins stat is from ProFootballReference.com based on points scored and allowed; and the lines are from my usual picks pool on CBS Sports, where I'm the reigning champ with a 145-111 record. The key to my success was not to overrate homefield advantage: home favorites were just 63-99 against the spread while road favorites went 50-44. That could prove even more true this season with the lack of fans in attendance. 

Chiefs: 12-4, 11.4 expected wins, 5-4 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 11.5 wins
As much as it broke my heart, they were worthy champions and locked up their core in the offseason. This is a high win total, but it feels pretty safe considering that they were 11-3 in Patrick Mahomes' starts. That number is now up to 24-7 in his career plus 4-1 in the postseason, and it would be no surprise to see him pick up his second MVP in three years as the starter. He's the face of the league for a reason.

Breakout player: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
I swear this was already my pick before his impressive debut last night as it's hardly an original idea. Andy Reid offenses are always fantasy friendly for shifty, pass-catching running backs like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Brian Westbrook, and the fact that CEH is the only one he's ever invested a 1st round pick in tells you everything you need to know, especially with Reid's draft day comparison to Westbrook. On a national champion LSU team, he averaged 1.83 yards per team play with 13.96% of the team's receptions, strong numbers for a prospect.

Texans: 10-6, 7.8 expected wins, 8-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 7.5 wins
Although they are due for some regression based on their point differential and luck in close games, Houston still has the best quarterback in the division, and Bill O'Brien has won 9 or more games in five out of six years there. Yes, they didn't get enough for DeAndre Hopkins after not wanting to give him the extension he ended up getting in Arizona, but there are still plenty of pieces to work with from last year's team that had a 24-0 lead on Kansas City in the Divisional Round. Returning to the playoffs may be out of reach this year, but .500 is attainable.

Breakout player: Will Fuller
Another one from before last night that got off to a good start. He's coming into the season having only made it through 21 healthy games (including the playoffs) with Deshaun Watson over three season due to injuries for both, but they have shown a brilliant connection. Fuller averages 6.81 targets, 4.57 catches, 72.57 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns in those contests, and over 16 games, that's a 109-73-1,161-11 stat line. With Hopkins gone, his 20.85% target share has plenty of room for improvement, so hopefully his reportedly added muscle helps him stay healthy.

Week 1 line: Chiefs -9.5 versus Texans
It's always nice to start the season off on the right foot.


Eagles: 9-7, 8.8 expected wins, 5-5 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 9.5 wins
This might have been the toughest pick for me because they are a good team that made improvements to improve on last year's deserved record but own a tough schedule. In addition to facing the NFC West and AFC North, they have to face the other 1st place teams, so the bankable wins against Washington and New York may not be enough. The secondary should be improved with Jalen Mills moving to safety and the additions of Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman, but the offense has had some health issues in camp. Add in the fact that the team has only reached double digit wins in one of Doug Pederson's four years, and I'll lean towards the under here.

Breakout player: Jalen Reagor
One of my favorite players heading into last year's college football season as a Jeremy Maclin-type; refer to my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations to understand why. Miles Sanders looks ready to make the jump to being a full-time featured back, as well.

Washington Football Team: 3-13, 3.8 expected wins, 3-3 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 5 wins
Conversely, this pick is easier to make with the same divisions to face and a much less talented team. Ron Rivera was brought in to turn the franchise around but is unfortunately dealing with lymph node cancer that may affect his availability during the season. Although I am optimistic about Dwayne Haskins and rookie offensive coordinator Scott Turner, it's best to be pragmatic about consistency at this point in their careers. Coverage is also a cause for concern behind a deadly defensive line, especially after trading top corner Quinton Dunbar.

Breakout player: Antonio Gibson
The surprising release of Adrian Peterson right before the season starts signals the confidence the team has in their 3rd round pick. He was a hybrid player at Memphis as a receiver who would get occasional carries, and Turner plans to use him like how he and his father used Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. At 6'0", 228 lbs with a 4.39 40, 35" vertical, and 9'10", he could be an explosive dual-threat out of the backfield. I almost went with Terry McLaurin, but he's not sneaking up on anyone after 919 yards as a rookie. I do want to point out that after 28 catches for 458 yards and 5 touchdowns on 46 targets in 7 games with Case Keenum, he recorded 30 catches for 461 yards and 2 touchdowns on 47 targets in 7 games with Haskins. It shouldn't be a concern that he's playing with his college quarterback, even if he is still a raw quarterback.

Week 1 line: Eagles -6.5 versus WFT
This same matchup burned me in last year's season opener after a backdoor cover, but Philly's new secondary should be better equipped to close games. Look out for DeSean Jackson to explode in his #revengegame again.

Colts: 7-9, 7.7 expected wins, 5-6 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 9 wins
This much of an improvement may be a leap of faith with a 38 year old quarterback, but Philip Rivers is that big of an upgrade over his fellow NC State passer, Jacoby Brissett. Even coming off of a year with his career-worst touchdown rate (3.9% versus 5.3% in his first 15 years) and second most interceptions, I have confidence that he can effectively run the offense of his former OC, Frank Reich. Having probably the best offensive line of his career will help, as will the addition of DeForest Buckner on defense.

Breakout player: Jonathan Taylor
The team's first draft pick, Michael Pittman Jr., should also make an impact, and you can refer to my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations for more. Taylor has a chance to become the centerpiece of the offense, though, and they didn't trade back up in the 2nd round to have him sit behind Marlon Mack, who is in the last year of his contract. He ran for 6,174 yards in just three years to sit 6th in college football history and even improved as a receiver with 26 catches last season. That was 10.57% of the team's total receptions, he accounted for a whopping 46.43% of their overall touchdowns, and he averaged 2.36, 2.58, and 2.18 yards per team play over the three years. Oh and Taylor ran 4.39 with jumps of 36" and 10'3" at 5'10", 226 lbs to top it off.

Jaguars: 6-10, 5.4 expected wins, 2-3 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 4.5 wins
There's not a lot to say here other than this team is the favorite to land the #1 pick after overhauling their roster with trades and releases. They are set up well for the future with all of the draft picks they've accumulated, at least. Maybe they surprise some teams like the Dolphins last year, but I'd bet against it.

Breakout player: Leviska Shenault
Another one from my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations. James Robinson is another one to watch, but it's tough to project consistent touches for a running back on a team that's projected to be trailing most games. I am excited for him to get the first crack at the job after being disappointing that he went undrafted following an impressive career at Illinois State. You can critique raw numbers against the FCS competition, but he accounted for 52.94% of his team's touchdowns and 12.12% of the receptions while averaging 2.17 yards per team play as a senior after 28.26%, 11.23%, and 1.97 as a junior.

Week 1 line: Colts -7.5 at Jaguars
Jacksonville could be a team that threatens for backdoor covers with a wild card quarterback like Gardner Minshew and legitimately good receiving options, but Indy should be a playoff team. They can prove their merit right away by running all over the Jags like in the first meeting between these teams last year.

Packers: 13-3, 9.7 expected wins, 8-1 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 9 wins (a push, if we're being bold)
Like the Texans, there's still a good team here even with some regression coming after outperforming their expected wins by the largest amount in the league. I absolutely hated their draft with Jordan Love and A.J. Dillon in the first two rounds as backups in the backfield to their two best players, Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones, but at least last year's first pick Rashan Gary has reportedly flashed in camp after a nondescript rookie season. Despite inexplicably not addressing the need at receiver, I'm counting on Rodgers and coach Matt LeFleur having more cohesion in their second year to avoid needing luck in so many close games. With the defense looking good again, they should stay in the mix for the division.

Breakout player: Allen Lazard
Admittedly, there aren't too many options on a top-heavy offense, but Rodgers has continually spoken about the trust he has in Lazard. From the Monday Night Football game in Week 6 when he made stepped up for a big score on, he averaged 4.7 targets, 3.2 catches, and 43.4 yards with 3 touchdowns in 11 games, so he should easily exceed 700 yards or so. The real candidate for a potential jump to an even higher level is Davante Adams given the lack of target competition around him, but since he's already a star, I'll also throw out Equanimeous St. Brown as a name I'm hopeful for after missing all of last year due to ankle surgery.

Vikings: 10-6, 10.7 expected wins, 2-4 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 8.5 wins
Despite losing some key players, this defense should remain elite as long as a couple of young corners step up. In particular, Holton Hill has shown potential after surprisingly going undrafted in 2018, and rookies Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler should be good fits under Mike Zimmer. Kevin Stefanski's departure at OC isn't a concern with Gary Kubiak already in place, and having Adam Thielen back healthy can mitigate the Stefon Diggs trade in this offense that's predicated on play action passes and Dalvin Cook runs. Finally, they have averaged 9.5 wins in Zimmer's six seasons as coach

Breakout player: Irv Smith Jr.
Although Justin Jefferson was drafted with one of the picks acquired from that Diggs trade, I explained my hesitancy for this year in my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations. Instead, a receiving threat that could surprise is Smith thanks to Minnesota running the second most plays with two tight ends. At one of the toughest positions for rookies to contribute in, he had 47 targets for 36 targets, 311 yards, and 2 touchdowns to essentially match veteran Kyle Rudolph's 48 for 39, 367, and 6. Smith lacks the same size to garner the same end zone looks, but he could end up being among the leading receivers after Thielen.

Week 1 line: Packers +2.5 at Vikings
Although I'm probably more optimistic about Minnesota this year, I'm going with Green Bay after they won both matchups last season. The late trade for Yannick Ngakoue could help make up for the huge loss of Danielle Hunter being banged up to start the year, but who knows how ready he will be with his new team. I'm counting on Jones having another big day like he did twice against this defense, including a stud performance to clinch the fantasy championship in my longest running league.

Panthers: 5-11, 5.1 expected wins, 2-6 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 5.5 wins
With no preseason and less time to ramp up, I'm fading all of the rookie head coaches. Matt Rhule knew he was taking on another team in transition, anyway, with a young defense that saw the entire draft class invested in it. At least the new, five out offense under young OC Joe Brady should be exciting as he's reunited with Teddy Bridgewater from their time in New Orleans, and it of course features Christian McCaffrey, who had a historical fantasy season with the second most PPR points in NFL history. They could catch some teams sleeping as they build towards possibly contending a year from now.

Breakout player: Curtis Samuel
Too often last year he spent the majority of his time just running go routes only to be thrown uncatchable passes from Kyle Allen. Robby Anderson was signed by his former college coach to take the lid off of defenses now instead, so Samuel will be free to work out of the slot and create easy opportunities for Bridgewater alongside rising star D.J. Moore. Fun fact: despite going into his fourth year, he's younger than one of last year's stud rookies, McLaurin, whom he was teammates with at Ohio State. He actually spent some time at running back as a collegiate, and hopefully this year he can once again show how electric he is with the ball in his hands.

Raiders: 7-9, 5.3 expected wins, 7-3 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 7.5 wins
After all of their wins came in one-possession games to exceed their expected wins by the fifth highest amount, I'm not betting on an improvement. There's an argument to made that they should regress back to five win territory, but maybe finally playing in Las Vegas will help them after a bit of an awkward transition period. They made some interesting signings to help the defense up the middle, but I'm not sure how consistent the pass rush will be to help out a very inexperienced secondary. It also remains to be seen how much Jon Gruden's offense can get into the end zone after ranking 11th in yards yet only 24th in points scored last year.

Breakout player: Bryan Edwards
Another one from my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations, and while everyone has high expectations for the top receiver drafted, Henry Ruggs, I think Edwards is going under the radar.

Week 1 line: Panthers +2.5 versus Raiders
A West Coast team playing at 10 AM is always a challenge, and asking both of the rookie receivers to be starters right away could be a tall order. Against an up tempo offense, we'll find out right away if the Raiders' young defensive backs are ready to play. Josh Jacobs could run wild, but I don't trust a seemingly mediocre points to lay points on the road.

Ravens: 14-2, 13.1 expected wins, 5-1 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 11.5 wins
Although they were a little lucky in close games, they were so good in their other 10 contests that they only exceeded their expected wins by 0.9. Their already stout defense added reinforcements up front, and the offense that led the lead in points is filled with young players that are still ascending, headlined of course by last year's MVP, Lamar Jackson. It's hard to see them win three fewer games than last year even with the drama around Earl Thomas release, and it's possible that's actually an addition by subtraction in the locker room.

Breakout player: Marquise Brown
Mark Andrews is set to put himself even higher in the conversation for the best receiving tight end in the game following the trade of Hayden Hurst, but since he already led the team in receiving last year, I'll go with Hollywood. With a strong draft profile, he whisked away my concerns about how ready he would be following foot surgery to flash for some incredible highlights, and now that he's had a healthy offseason to build back up his strength, he is set to take off in a big way. There's not much competition for targets aside from Andrews and fellow second year receiver Miles Boykin, who will also hopefully take a step forward, and the team may not be able to be the most run-heavy offense simply due to natural regression to the mean. 

Browns: 6-10, 6.5 expected wins, 2-4 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 8.5 wins
Again, I'm taking the wait and see approach with rookie head coaches, so there's no way I'm counting on a three win leap to a winning record. Just having a competent coaching staff in charge of all of their talent should have them in the right direction to flirt with .500, but they're in one of the toughest divisions. Already taking some key hits to the defense in training camp doesn't help either.

"Breakout" player: Odell Beckham Jr.
Since they're another offense with an established pecking order that doesn't leave many sleeper options, I'm going with OBJ to jump back up into that upper echelon of the top receivers. He played the entire year injured and never seemed to develop a great chemistry with Baker Mayfield in a poorly run offense. The young signal caller should also bounce back this year in a scheme that heavily utilizes play-action, and those splash plays should get Beckham back to his efficient ways like it did with Stefon Diggs last year.

Week 1 line Ravens -8.5 versus Browns
This is a large home spread that I changed my mind on because Cleveland will be missing their #2 and #3 corners. Their stunning win in Baltimore last year was the Ravens' last loss before the playoff exit, and I'm sure atoning both embarrassments was a focus leading up to this week. The Browns' recent opening week history helps, as well.
Falcons: 7-9, 7.6 expected wins, 3-4 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 7.5 wins
I could go either way on this after being right around the number last year, and in the end, I'm choosing to believe that at least some of last year's 6-2 finish is for real. The re-shuffling of duties among the defensive coaching staff during the bye week paid dividends, and the offense could potentially be more explosive with Todd Gurley replacing Devonta Freeman in the backfield. Having averaged 8.6 wins in Dan Quinn's five seasons as head coach, I feel okay about picking a .500 record here despite being the third best team in the division.

Breakout player: Calvin Ridley
The 2018 1st round pick has been highly effective early on in his career and has only lacked volume after seeing 92 targets as a rookie and then 93 in 13 games last year. That trended up after the excellent midseason trade of Mohamed Sanu allowed Ridley to take off. 49 of his targets came in his last six games following that move, and he turned them into 34 catches for 493 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over a full season that would be 91 catches, 1,315 yards, and 8 touchdowns on 131 targets, and those numbers are within reach in one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league.

Seahawks: 11-5, 8.2 expected wins, 10-2 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 9.5 wins
In this case, I'm actually going slightly under Pete Carroll's average of exactly 10 wins in his 10 seasons in Seattle because that record in close games should not be sustainable. Although I picked a slight over on Green Bay (the only team to exceed their expected wins by more than Seattle's 2.8), their win total had regression seriously baked into it. This total does not. Yes, Jamal Adams was a huge addition to the defense, but the loss of Jadeveon Clowney will also be felt.

Breakout player: D.K. Metcalf
One of my better hits from last year's rookie class, Metcalf looks poised to build on his 900 yard, 7 touchdown rookie year as the clear 1B to Tyler Lockett's 1A in the Seahawks's passing game now. His physical dominance showed in the two playoff games with 11 more catches for 219 yards and a score, and success at that stage is often a sign of big things to come.

Week 1 line: Falcons +1.5 versus Seahawks
Another West Coast team in an early game that I'm not willing to lay points with. Quinn could have some tricks in store for his former team.

Bears: 8-8, 7.4 expected wins, 6-5 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 8 wins
Trading a 4th round pick for Nick Foles on an overpriced salary is not the answer, and that has already proven true with Mitchell Trubisky reportedly winning the training camp battle to retain his job. The defense regressed even more than expected without Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, and although I like 2nd rounder Jaylon Johnson and veteran Tashaun Gipson joining Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson in a strong secondary, that side of the ball isn't likely to carry the team to the playoffs like in 2018.

Breakout player: Anthony Miller
I've talked up Miller going back to before his rookie season, and after only showing flashes for a while there, he took off down the stretch. He made the most of the extra looks he received once Taylor Gabriel got hurt in Week 12, and from that game on averaged 7.3 targets, 4.8 catches, 64 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns over the last six games. That's a full season pace of 117 targets, 77 catches, 1,024 yards, and 5 touchdowns, and Taylor Gabriel is no longer on the team. I fully believe that Miller can be an effective compliment to Allen Robinson.

Lions: 3-12-1, 6.0 expected wins, 3-8-1 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 7 wins
I've seen this team as a trendy sleeper pick among multiple analysts that I respect, but I just haven't seen it under Matt Patricia's coaching yet. Even when you consider that Matthew Stafford was having a quietly awesome year with 2,499 yards and 19 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions in exactly half a season, the team was still only 3-4-1 in those games. It's hard to trust their defense despite Patricia's reputation, so even with some better luck in close games, that 7 number is right at the limit I'd go to.

Breakout player: T.J. Hockenson
I'm not the biggest fan of comparing players just because they came from the same school, but the similarities between the recent Iowa tight ends are uncanny.

George Kittle in his rookie year: 2.87 catches, 34.33 yards, and 0.13 TDs per game.
Last year's 8th overall pick, Hockenson: 2.67, 30.58, and 0.17. Those numbers were higher with Stafford at the helm, as well: 2.75, 37, and 0.25.
His former teammate and 20th overall pick, Noah Fant: 2.5 catches, 35.13 yards, and 0.19 TDs.

The second year players aren't likely to become the best tight ends in the game like Kittle, but at a position where it's difficult to contribute as a rookie, there were more than encouraging signs from each.

Week 1 line: Bears +3.5 at Lions
Give me the points in what should be a close divsional matchup, especially with the news that Kenny Golladay is listed as doubtful.

Patriots: 12-4, 13.0 expected wins, 4-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 10 wins
Maybe the drop off from 42 year old Tom Brady to 31 year old Cam Newton is being overrated? The former is a living legend, of course, but if Newton is healthy at long last, he can bring a more dynamic element to the offense at this stage of their careers. The opt outs on defense will hurt, but with Bill Belichick still at the helm, they should remain right around 10 or more wins. After all, they did go 11-5 in the Matt Cassell year, albeit all the way back in 2008.

Breakout player: Damien Harris
Without Brady's trust, it was a lost rookie season for Harris trust behind more experienced running backs, but practically every training camp report I read describes him as the star of the show. Having to sit out the first three weeks after pinky surgery is a bummer, but he could end up being their most complete back. For fun, let's look at how his college teammate Josh Jacobs, last year's Rookie of the Year runner up, performed in his three years at Alabama: 2,062 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. Harris during that same span? 3,307 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Dolphins: 5-11, 3.9 expected wins, 4-2 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 6 wins
Sure, things are trending up after starting 0-7 with a -161 point differential, but I still expect them to be near the bottom of the standings. The Ryan Fitzpatrick roller coaster will continue until rookie Tua Tagovailoa is ready, and they might err on the side of caution before putting him behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league after his hip surgery. Aside from the corners, the defense also still appears to have holes, so I think they're still a year away.

Breakout player: Preston Williams
Before tearing his ACL in the eighth game, Williams was having an impressive rookie campaign with 32 catches for 428 yards and 3 touchdowns over half a season. The catches and yards were actually leading the team before DeVante Parker exploded down the stretch, so it's not out of the questions that the 6'5", 218 lb second year receiver keeps pace with Parker as the top target now that he's healthy.

Week 1 line: Patriots -6.5 versus Dolphins
Cam and Bill won't be afraid to run up the score in the first game of their new partnership.

Jets: 7-9, 5.6 expected wins, 5-2 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 6.5 wins
Objectively, the over is a little tempting since they were 7-6 in games Sam Darnold started, and three blowout losses when he was out lowered their point differential. However, the trend of Adam Gase's players holding such contempt for him is hard to ignore, and it helped result in trading away their best player, Jamal Adams. The pass defense in particular looks like it will be a mess, so they really need the reshuffled offensive line and new receivers Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman to help Darnold become more consistent to compete. I don't think it will be enough to match the point totals they give up, so it's an under pick for me.

Breakout player: Chris Herndon
Herndon is one of my favorite bounce back candidates from a lost season due to suspension and injuries after a promising rookie year with 502 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jamison Crowder should also improve on last year's numbers after averaging 8.31 targets, 5.38 catches, 58.31 yards, and 0.46 touchdowns in Darnold's 13 games.

Bills: 10-6, 9.8 expected wins, 4-5 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 8.5 wins
I know I've been something of a Buffalo hater since I don't believe in Josh Allen as a passer, but the rest of the team has been legit under Sean McDermott. They could potentially knock New England off their AFC East throne at long last with a tough defense headlined by Tre'Davious White. If Allen can stop being so loose with the ball (he fumbled 14 times to go with 9 picks), complete more than 60% of his passes, and average more than 6.7 yards per attempt for once, then perhaps they could take a leap into contender status.

Breakout player: Zach Moss
Moss fell to the 3rd round after a disappointing 4.65 40 time, but he did record a solid 33" vertical at 5'9", 223 lbs to go along with stellar college production. In his 12 games as a senior, he accounted for 36.17% of Utah's touchdowns, 14.74% of their receptions, and averaged 2.34 yards per team play to put together a pretty complete profile. Devin Singletary may technically be the starting running back, but Moss could get passing down duties in addition to goal line work, especially since the former has had fumbling issues in camp.

Week 1 line: Jets +6.5 at Bills
Although I have differing outlooks on how their seasons will go, New York did play the division rivals tough last year with a 1 point loss and 6 point win. I'll take the points in what I'm expecting to be another tight one

Bengals: 2-14, 4.4 expected wins, 0-7 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 5.5 wins
A four win improvement is my biggest leap of faith, but it's as crazy as it sounds if you focus on the expected wins. They were just terrible in close games last year under a rookie head coach. With a year under his belt and a franchise quarterback in tow, Zac Taylor should have some better luck to turn this franchise around. The fact that they actually spent money on free agents to bolster the defense is a sign that things really are changing in Cincy.

Breakout player: Joe Burrow
The #1 pick may not be much of a sleeper, but I fully expect Burrow to make his jump from college to the pros a successful one early on. He just had arguably the greatest season ever with the most passing touchdowns (60), highest passer rating (202), most total touchdowns (65), most total yards (6,039), 3rd most passing yards (5,671), 5th highest completion percentage (76.3%), and 8th highest yards per attempt (10.8) to culminate in the ultimate prize of an undefeated season and national championship. He's the only rookie quarterback to be named a Week 1 starter and has earned raving reviews in camp, which is no surprise with the athleticism, accuracy, and decision making he showed last year. With that complete package and the best rookie landing spot, I'm expecting big things.

Chargers: 5-11, 7.8 expected wins, 2-9 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 8 wins (potentially a push, really)
There's a chance that going from the aging Rivers to the more mobile Tyrod Taylor and eventually rookie Justin Herbert produces a similar level of offense, but I'm not willing to take that chance. Make no mistake, this is a talented team that should have won more games last year, but their inability to win tight games, often with poor clock management, has been a recurring theme under Anthony Lynn. Maybe that fell more on Rivers, but this big of a leap forward with lesser passers is too tall a task. 

Breakout player: Joshua Kelley
I'm excited for this to be Austin Ekeler's backfield, but there's room for another back to contribute in the way that he spelled Melvin Gordon previously. Enter Kelley, a 4th round pick in this strong rookie class who was a workhorse at UCLA. In his 11 games each of the last two years, he's accounted for 34.21% and 38.71% of their touchdowns to go with 4.37% and a strong 11.79% of their receptions while averaging 1.32 and a solid 1.80 yards per team play. And at nearly 5'11" and 212 lbs with a 4.49 40 and 10'1" broad jump, he has more impressive physical tools than 2018 7th rounder Justin Jackson, whom I also like. Kelley received more draft capital for a reason, and he could be the goal line back right away as the biggest member of the group.

Week 1 line: Bengals +3.5 versus Chargers
Anthony Lynn needed overtime last year to avoid being 0-3 in Week 1 for his career. In a battle of teams that struggled in close games last year I'll take the points.

Buccaneers: 7-9, 8.2 expected wins, 3-6 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 9.5 wins
I may be falling for the trap of over-hyping Brady's and Rob Gronkowski's arrivals at this point of their careers, but there's a lot to like here. They underachieved last year based on expected wins and their record in close games, and that was in large part due to Jameis Winston throwing 30 interceptions and fumbling 12 times. Brady may be somewhat of a questionable fit in Bruce Arians' offense that calls for holding onto the ball longer with downfield throws, but he has always been one of the best at taking care of the ball. That should help an underrated defense whose young secondary came on strong down the stretch last year, so I like them as a playoff team.

Breakout player: Tyler Johnson
Scotty Miller is the more well known sleeper after Johnson missed a lot of camp with a soft-tissue issue, but the latter's college production is too good to ignore. Over the last three years, he's racked up 40.57%, 41.05%, and 33.33% of Minnesota's catches; 40.02%, 43.07%, and 47.34% of their yards; and 41.94%, 60.00%, and 77.78% of their receiving touchdowns, which are all ridiculous rates. He's a name to keep an eye on in the second half of the season.

Saints: 13-3, 10.7 expected wins, 7-1 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 10.5 wins
On the one hand, this might be the most talented team on paper in the NFC; on the other, they had obscene luck in close games that should be unsustainable. Call it a gut feeling, but I have a sense that there will be a surprising drop off here that leaves the division title in doubt until the very end. I'm not confident in the corners around Marshon Lattimore or the pass rush around Cameron Jordan, and on the other side, it is worth noting that Drew Brees is 41 now.

Breakout player: Tre'Quan Smith
I'll admit that I've been left waiting for Smith's breakout for a while now, but the outside deep threat role should be solely his now that Ted Ginn Jr. is no longer in the picture. It's limited in opportunities with Michael Thomas and now Emmanuel Sanders working the short and intermediate areas, but Smith has had promising signs with 5 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. There's potential here for the former 3rd round pick to bring more to that role.

Week 1 line: Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints
Sean Payton's Saints always seem to get off on the wrong foot: last year's Week 1 win broke a streak of five straight 0-1 starts. Overall they are just 2-7 in their last 9 season openers, so I'll take the points in this divisional rivalry.

Cardinals: 5-10-1, 6.1 expected wins, 3-5-1 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 7.5 wins
The over would be a pretty optimistic leap considering they are in one of the toughest divisions in the league. Kliff Kingsbury having a year of his unique offensive system in place and the trade for DeAndre Hopkins as a huge weapon for Kyler Murray should juice up the offense, but I don't think it will be to a point to consistently make up for a defense that is lacking behind a few stars. 7 wins feels about right for where they are in their cycle.

Breakout player: Christian Kirk
After a bit of a disappointing second year, Kirk should benefit from some more slot work with Hopkins now on the outside and drawing extra defensive attention. He did get off to a nice start last year with 24 catches for 242 yards in the first four games before suffering a high ankle sprain, so he's shown the ability to do well in this offense. As the unit takes the next step, there should be increased volume for everyone involved that benefits him, even with a lower target share due to Hopkins.

49ers: 13-3, 11.8 expected wins, 5-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 10.5 wins
Call me a homer, but this team was insanely close to winning the Super Bowl before a generational quarterback took over. They are returning nearly every starter and made effective moves to replace the ones that are missing with the trade for Trent Williams and drafting of Javon Kinlaw and Brandon Aiyuk in the 1st round. Even with the defense experiencing some expected regression to the mean, Jimmy Garoppolo could take a step forward in his second full year as a starter under Kyle Shanahan after being the only quarterback to rank in the top-5 in touchdowns (27, tied for 5th), yards per attempt (8.4, 3rd), and completion percentage (69.1%, tied for 4th) last year. If he does make that jump like Matt Ryan did in his second year in the system, they could join the '71 Cowboys, '72 Dolphins, and '18 Patriots as just the fourth team to win the Super Bowl after losing it.

Breakout player: Brandon Aiyuk
It may be a slow start after Aiyuk hurt his hamstring in his first training camp, but hey so did OBJ, whom he models his game after. A similarly freakish 6'8" wingspan and measurables give at least some credence to that optimistic comparison, and as I wrote in my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations, there's reason to believe he's faster than the 4.5 he ran while needing core muscle surgery. He's a volatile prospect as a late bloomer who was recruited as a corner by some schools like Alabama, but that also means there's a lot of untapped potential as he gets more high-level experience.

Week 1 line: Cardinals +7.5 at 49ers
San Francisco was only 3-5 against the spread at home last year (all as favorites), and the Cardinals have given them trouble under Shanahan. While I am confident in a win, asking for more than a touchdown may be too much.

Rams: 9-7, 8.7 expected wins, 3-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 8.5 wins
I'm not seeing another step back from last year after 11 and 13 wins in Sean McVay's first two seasons. Their management of the salary cap and draft picks has been questionable with all of the big names coming and going, but there are still plenty of high-level starters, including Jalen Ramsey for a full season now after last year's trade. If the offensive line gels with another year together, they should be right in the mix for a playoff spot despite a tough division.

Breakout player: Cam Akers

Cowboys: 8-8, 10.7 expected wins, 1-6 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 9.5 wins
This is the only team with a new coach that I'm taking the over on, and even that I'm hesitant on since I've never been a huge Mike McCarthy guy. They should have some positive regression to the mean coming after all of those close losses under Jason Garrett, though, and having CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs fall into their laps with their first two picks was a major coup. This should be one of the most explosive offenses in the league, so if the new additions on defense work out, they'll be in good shape.

Breakout player: CeeDee Lamb
He earned the top spot in my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations for a reason.

Week 1 line: Rams +2.5 versus Cowboys
It's unfortunate that the new SoFi Stadium will open without fans, but I still think LA can pull off an upset in the first game in their new home.

Steelers: 8-8, 7.6 expected wins, 6-5 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 9 wins
This is my sleeper pick to win the AFC as long as Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. The fact that they were even in the playoff picture despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league for all but 1.5 games shows how strong of a team this is. Getting the game's most important position settled again should be worth at least two wins, and if Kansas City or Baltimore stumble for whatever reason, don't be surprised by Pittsburgh making a push to set the record with seven Lombardi trophies
.
Breakout player: Diontae Johnson
I wrote about him in last year's rookie WR piece, and he ended up leading that strong draft class with 59 catches even with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges throwing to him. That includes 23 catches for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns (plus a punt return touchdown) over the last four games of the year. That would be 92 catches for 1,028 yards and 8 touchdowns over a full season, and that is a reasonable goal with Roethlisberger back.

Giants: 4-12, 5.4 expected wins, 2-5 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 6 wins
Although Daniel Jones silenced some critics with a few massive games, the team was still just 3-9 in his starts to post the same win percentage that they had under Eli Manning last year. Even with growth in his second year and a little more luck in close games, it's hard to see a two or three win jump with a rookie head coach. Maybe the signings of James Bradberry and more recently, Logan Ryan, solidifies the secondary, but last year's defense that allowed the third most points in the league still looks suspect.

Breakout player: Sterling Shepard
Darius Slayton raw athleticism may provide more upside as a deep threat, but I'll take the sharper separator in Shepard. The 27 year old averaged 5.43 catches per game in Jones' starts to lead the team, and their seven games together had a full season pace of 133 targets, 87 catches, 903 yards, and 7 touchdowns. With a little more downfield chemistry in their second year together, he should finally cross the 1,000 yard threshold.

Week 1 line: Steelers -6.5 at Giants
The release of Deandre Baker after his arrest leaves an already unproven secondary in a tough position. Look for Pittsbrugh to announce that Big Ben is back in a big way on national television.

Broncos: 7-9, 6.9 expected wins, 4-5 in one-possession games

The pick: UNDER 7.5 wins
The 4-1 finish after Drew Lock became the starting quarterback was encouraging, but it's worth noting that three of the teams they beat in that small sample size had losing records. The loss of Von Miller for the season will obviously have a huge impact, so as much as I'd like to think this is a team on the upswing in Vic Fangio's second year, I think they'll be just under the number here.

Breakout player: Noah Fant
See note about Hockenson. Additionally, Jerry Jeudy was my favorite receiver prospect in this draft and as such is listed highly in my rankings of the Top-10 rookie WR situations.

Titans: 9-7, 9.8 expected wins, 3-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 8.5 wins
Another team that changed signal callers partway through the year (after facing Denver, coincidentally enough), they went 7-3 once Ryan Tannehill took over. Only three of those wins were in close games to one loss, so it doesn't appear too fluky. He was hyper efficient with a heavy dose of play-action passes en route to his inexplicable Comeback Player of the Year award (Garoppolo coming back from a torn ACL for 16 games to earn the #1 seed > Tannehill coming back from a minor shoulder injury for 10 games to earn a wild card), and the defense should be good again. In one of the divisions that's most up for grabs, they should be in the playoff picture again. 

Breakout player: Jonnu Smith
Although I'm a little concerned about a low volume passing attack, Smith is officially going to be the guy at tight end now that Delanie Walker is no longer with the team. He hasn't been particularly consistent, but he is an impressive athlete that even had 78 rushing yards last year on just 4 carries. I'm also hopeful for Corey Davis to have a DeVante Parker-like breakout, but Smith might be the better bet considering Tannehill's history of throwing over the middle.

Week 1 line: Broncos -1.5 versus Titans
This was one of the most surprising spreads when I first looked them up, but things do tend to get a little wacky in the late MNF game of opening week. Add in the fact that Denver won seven straight home openers before last year, and I'm sticking with Vegas' initial favorites even though it's gone as far as Tennessee -3 in some place. Win it for Von!
Posted by at
Labels: ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)