Week 2 is always my least favorite week to make picks because you can't overreact to a small sample size, and most teams that were at home last week are now on the road and vice versa. I'm trying to focus on how teams performed and not just the results from the opening games, so hopefully that will convey in the picks.
Road Underdogs
Bengals +5.5 at Browns
Sometimes bad beats work in your favor.
Vikings +3.5 at Colts
In a battle between two of the most disappointing teams in Week 1, I'll take the points. I don't think that Philip Rivers can pick apart Minnesota's defense in the way that Aaron Rodgers did, but Kirk Cousins could have success with short passes like Gardner Minshew last week. I am curious to see how much Indy features Jonathan Taylor in the wake of Marlon Mack's unfortunate Achilles tear since Nyheim Hines is unsurprisingly a favorite target of Rivers. Eric Kendricks is one of the game's best coverage linebackers, though, so the Vikings should be in good position to bounce back.
Jaguars +9.5 at Titans
Jacksonville won't be sneaking up on another division rival this time, but they showed that they can at least hang in there to keep this a close game. Although I almost wrote about Corey Davis as this year's DeVante Parker as a former 1st round pick with all of the physical tools who struggled with injuries and offensive situation, I'm not sure Tennessee's passing attack is going to blow away anyone to cover large spreads. A.J. Brown's absence with a bone bruise certainly doesn't help in that regard.
Panthers +9.5 at Buccaneers
While I fully expect Tampa Bay to be the team that gets their first W in this one, this is also too high of a spread for my taste. As I feel like I constantly pointed out last, the Bucs have not been a particularly good home team with last season's 2-6 record following three straight 4-4 performances. Carolina's defense (or lack thereof) is going to cure a lot of team's offensive woes this year, but they showed last week that they can put up points themselves with the Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady partnership.
Giants +5.5 at Bears
Daniel Jones gets no reprieve going from Pittsburgh's defense to Chicago's, but aside from the red zone mistake, he looked comfortable moving the ball in the new offense. After the Bears were a bit lucky to pull out their win after that wild fourth quarter, this should be another close one. Maybe they'll get off to a faster start with Allen Robinson fed early and often after being unhappy with his extension negotiations, but I'd like to see Mitchell Trubisky translate that strong finish to a full game before laying the points.
Home Favorites
Steelers -6.5 versus Broncos
The team that might have made the Giants look worse than they are is now at home against another squad on a short week. Pittsburgh's banged up offensive line is cause for concern, but if it can give Ben Roethlisberger some time, he should be able to take advantage of A.J. Bouye's absence in the secondary. It might not matter too much with how good their defense appears to be, so I'm comfortable going against Denver's young offense on the road in this spot.
Packers -6.5 versus Lions
Speaking of absences in the secondary, Detroit's top three corners are all dealing with hamstring issues, which is obviously not what you want against Rodgers. To no one's surprise, he looks like he's on a mission to make the Jordan Love pick look even worse than it already was. Maybe controlling the clock with Adrian Peterson looking surprisingly good right away will help the Lions' cause, but Kenny Golladay missing time again hurts their chances of keeping pace.
Cowboys -4.5 versus Falcons
This was one of the hardest picks because it might only be a field goal game, but Dallas should take care of business at home against a defense that was shredded through the air in their own stadium. The loss of breakout tight end candidate Blake Jarwin to a torn ACL puts even more of an onus on their terrific trio of receivers, and Zeke Elliott could get even more work in the passing game after Chris Carson had two receiving touchdowns against Atlanta. I am worried that the Falcons offense could cover, but if Dallas gets off to an early lead, Aldon Smith and the defensive line looked dangerous.
Cardinals -6.5 versus Washington
This spread is a little high after both teams got surprising opening wins, but it makes sense with Washington now on the road compared to Arizona coming home. The mobility of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury's quick-hitting scheme should be able to overcome a dominant defensive line again this week, and it certainly didn't take long for DeAndre Hopkins to get acclimated. Logan Thomas was another breakout candidate I nearly wrote about as this year's Darren Waller (I didn't want to essentially copy J.J. Zachariason), and while he could have another big day against Arizona's leaky tight end defense, the offense wasn't very efficient as a whole last week.
Seahawks -4.5 versus Patriots
Just like the Dallas pick, I went back and forth before deciding to lay the points with the home team after showing well in the opener on the road. New England's defense featuring three to four strong corners at a time should be able to hang with Seattle's offense that #LetRussCook, but I'm not so sure about the offense. The run-focused offense around Cam Newton is playing into Seattle's strength, so I'll take the more established passing attack in this one.
Home Underdogs
Eagles +0.5 versus Rams
Possibly my boldest call of the week, I could come to regret it if Aaron Donald feasts on Philadelphia's banged up offensive line. Lane Johnson's return should help along with Miles Sanders, whose presence in the backfield should allow the coaching staff to not rely on so many deep passing calls. Carson Wentz not turning it over while under duress would also help the defense, which played solidly enough last week. I will also be interested to see how the Los Angeles offensive line looks against this stout front now that they're on the road.
Texans +6.5 versus Ravens
If that was my boldest call, this one might be my riskiest considering how Baltimore looked as good as expected in their opener. They're on the road against a decent team with extra rest now, though, and Houston's offense could hang with them. David Johnson and Will Fuller looked good in their new roles, and Deshaun Watson can match Lamar Jackson big play for big play. The Ravens never quite got their run game going despite last week's blowout, so I'm not sure they'll run away with it here to cover.
Road Favorites
49ers -6.5 at Jets
A blocked punt, some questionable penalties, missing both starting receivers out, and George Kittle getting hobbled halfway through the game cost San Francisco a close win. Luckily for them, there's no better cure for their troubles than playing what looks like the worst team in the league, even on the road.
Bills -5.5 at Dolphins
Although it's a little tempting to take the points with a home 'dog in a divisional matchup, Buffalo's offensive game plan to spread out the Jets defense for Josh Allen to make easy plays was impressive last week. Their usual strong defense shouldn't have too much trouble taking care of defense against Ryan Fitzpatrick and a running game that initially appears to be a non-factor like last year.
Chiefs -8.5 at Chargers
Another spread that is surprisingly high for a divisional affair, but it's not surprising that Kansas City is going to have inflated spreads all year. The fact that Los Angeles couldn't muster much against a Bengals defense that just got crushed on TNF isn't a good sign that they could at least cover, though. The defense could keep it close early, but I expect things to get away from them once they fall behind against an Andy Reid team with extra days of preparation.
Saints -6.5 at Raiders
The fact that Michael Thomas suffered his high ankle sprain blocking in the red zone at the two-minute warning when the game was already decided is a bit infuriating. Why even call the double pass to get them down there in that situation? That loss makes things a little more interesting on the road in the Las Vegas opener, but the Raiders defense doesn't appear capable of holding many leads. Facing the same type of offense this week doesn't bode well for them, and conversely, the New Orleans quelled any doubts about them against a more explosive attack last week.
Last week: 9-7
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