Friday, September 25, 2020

NFL 2020 Week 3 Picks

Week 2 did end up a bit weird, although it wasn't quite in the way I expected. Every Vegas favorite except the Saints (and Eagles depending on when you checked the line) won their game, but only half of them covered. Just about all of my 50/50 calls went the wrong way, so hopefully I'm due for some positive regression to the mean.

Home Favorites

Jaguars -3.5 versus Dolphins

My first instinct was to take the points in a battle of bad teams, especially being more than a field goal, but I overreacted to getting lucky last week with a backdoor cover for the road team. Since I typically like the home teams on the short week, I stuck with that even though I liked a lot of the matchups for Miami players in fantasy like Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin. That should've been my first hint.

Steelers -3.5 versus Texans

After facing Kansas City and Baltimore, Houston's tough schedule continues, and I'm honestly surprised this line isn't a little higher. Things will open up after this, but Deshaun Watson is going to be under pressure all day against the Steelers' blitz. And aside from Bradley Roby possibly slowing down Diontae Johnson's continued breakout, Houston's defense appears vulnerable again.

Patriots -6.5 versus Raiders

Las Vegas turned things around in a big way on MNF from the 2nd quarter on, but now they're on the road against a much better defensive mastermind. Bill Belichick isn't going to let them rely so heavily on Darren Waller in the passing game, and the New England corners should bounce back against the young receivers. On the other side, Cam Newton has looked great and should threaten the Raiders defense much more consistently than Drew Brees was willing to.

Eagles -6.5 versus Bengals

Maybe I'm just a glutton for punishment at this point with Philadelphia, but this is an ideal matchup for them to finally get on track. Cincinnati's undermanned defensive line really struggled on Thursday and will now probably get all they can handle from Miles Sanders. Taking the points with Joe Burrow yet again is tempting, but he just hasn't had time in the pocket to go downfield much. I'm counting on that continuing in this one.

Browns -7.5 versus Washington

The team that beat the #1 pick now welcomes the franchise that picked 2nd, and Cleveland should win again in similar fashion. While Washington's defensive line will be more of a challenge, their pass coverage should allow Baker Mayfield to have another strong showing. The Browns defense also have an easier task in maintaining their lead this time, although Logan Thomas could exploit their weakness against tight ends to make things a little interesting.

Colts -10.5 versus Jets

Speaking of maintaining leads, New York's dearth of weapons at the moment gives me confidence that they won't threaten covering even this large of a spread. Maybe Chris Herndon gets going now that he's past the 49ers defense that locks down tight ends, but even a big game from him isn't likely to overcome what their defense will give up here. Jonathan Taylor looked as good as expected, and standout athlete Mo Allie-Cox was unleashed. Philip Rivers knows a thing or two about throwing to former basketball players playing tight end.

Seahawks -4.5 versus Cowboys

One of the most exciting games of the weekend is also one of the toughest to pick. I don't trust either defense after both teams narrowly escaped last week, which normally would lead me to taking the points. Dallas has injuries moutning at corner, however, so Seattle's new offensive philosophy is likely to continue to find success. Bobby Wagner leading the top run defense against Ezekiel Elliott also gives me pause, so I'm hesitantly laying 4.5 again. Just don't be surprised if CeeDee Lamb exploits his mismatch in the slot for another big game.

Road Underdogs

Bears +3.5 at Falcons

This was probably the most surprising spread to me considering it's a 2-0 team versus 0-2. Yes, both of Chicago's games have gone down to the wire while Atlanta was unlucky last week, but there is a vast difference between their defenses. Julio Jones' hamstring making him questionable for the game also works against the home side, so although it wouldn't surprise me if they get their first win, I don't think they will cover.

Rams +2.5 at Bills

This line is actually right where I expected it to be, and I like LA to win the game outright. No, it's not because Buffalo blew the cover last week when I actually picked them for once, though that did reveal some weaknesses in their defense with four touchdowns allowed. The Rams just showed last week that they can play just as well on the road as they did at home, and their defense is much better than either one Buffalo has faced. While Josh Allen has improved as a passer in their redesigned offense, the underlying numbers indicate that he is playing over his head a bit.


Lions +5.5 at Cardinals

In a rematch of the 27-27 tie that opened last season, this could turn into a another shootout, especially now that Kenny Golladay is expected back. Arizona has improved a lot since then and is expected to win for a reason. However, I'm not completely confident that their defense is good enough yet to cover this spread against a quarterback of Matthew Stafford's caliber. I'm taking the points and hoping that Jeff Okudah's natural ability gets him through his rookie growing pains quickly.

Panthers +7.5 at Chargers

The Los Angeles defense is actually capable of covering, but I'm worried that this line is a little too high out of excitement over how good Justin Herbert looked in his first start. He won't have the element of surprise this time, and the one rookie mistake he made was a costly one in field goal range. That kind of play could give Carolina's overmatched defense a chance to stay in the game. Maybe I'm just asking for trouble with them like Philly, especially with Christian McCaffrey out, but I like their chances of covering here with Teddy Bridgewater taking what the defense gives him.

Packers +3.5 at Saints

This is complicated by the potential absence of Davante Adams in addition to Michael Thomas already, but Green Bay has simply looked like the better team so far in this young season. More comfortable in his second year under Matt LaFleur, Aaron Rodgers looks like his old self while Drew Brees just looks old. Alvin Kamara is back to being a dynamic threat through both the air and ground, but so is Aaron Jones now that he is finally getting more usage. Even with the game being in New Orleans, I'll take the more explosive offense.

Chiefs +3.5 at Ravens

It's a little surprising that this is over a field goal, and that's probably the biggest swing factor for me. This should be a tight game between arguably the two best teams in the league, and Patrick Mahomes has given no reason to be that much of an underdog. Sure, Baltimore's road win was a lot more comfortable than Kansas City's, and I could see the Chiefs defense struggling to stop the run. Passing is king, though, and as much as Lamar Jackson has improved, Mahomes should still have the edge to at least cover.

Road Favorites

Buccaneers -6.5 at Broncos

Tom Brady's history in Denver hasn't always been kind (4-4 there in the regular season, 0-3 in playoffs), but the Broncos have had some of the worst injury luck. In a battle against Jeff Driskel and with Von Miller and A.J. Bouye absent, I'm laying the points with Brady.

Home Underdogs

Giants +4.5 versus 49ers

The team that does have the worst injury luck right now is San Francisco, though. In last night's TNF, there was a graphic showing the major injuries around the league, and then there was a second page just for the 49ers. They should still win against a young New York team that is also without Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, but that doesn't quite compare. With Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Dre Greenlaw out for at least this week and no Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, or Jalen Hurd for the year now, I'm not comfortable with a spread over a field goal.

Vikings +2.5 versus Titans

This one might be my worst pick of the week with how bad Minnesota has played on both ends, but it's hard to see Mike Zimmer's team falling to 0-3. Tennessee nearly blew their win at home last week, and without A.J. Brown or Adoree' Jackson again this week, I think they'll be vulnerable on the road. The Vikings can't have a safety putting them in a bad spot for a third straight week, can they?

Last week: 7-9
Season total: 16-16
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