That was more like it. I won my pick'em pool last week, and hopefully that will continue as the sample size continues to grow for each team. I'm leaning on favorites a little more than I'd like this week, but the matchups are producing large spreads for a reason.
Road Favorites
Broncos -3.5 at Jets
I was hesitant to lay more than a field goal on the road in Brett Rypien's first career start after it dropped to pick'em in Vegas, but the Jets are just so so bad that I couldn't take them. Adam Gase using his timeouts at the end in a two possession game and then sending the heat at Rypien was the worst, and it's no wonder that Vic Fangio, whom Gase coached with in Chicago, was ready to blow up afterwards.
Colts -2.5 at Bears
My Chicago pick ended up a bit lucky with that big comeback, but their streak of dramatic 4th quarter wins should come to an end against their toughest opponent to date. Indianapolis has coasted to wins after that Week 1 wakeup call against Jacksonville, and they've looked like the playoff contender expected of them on both sides of the ball. Maybe Nick Foles gives the Bears some juice, but I still have no problem laying just a field goal with Philip Rivers against him.
Cardinals -3.5 at Panthers
I'm not going to overreact to Arizona taking their first loss or Carolina getting their first win; the Cardinals are pretty clearly the superior team, especially with Christian McCaffrey still out. The status of DeAndre Hopkins' ankle is worth monitoring, but the offense should have their way with the unimposing Panthers defense. Expect Kenyan Drake to get on track like the all of the previous running backs that have faced them so far.
Bills -3.5 at Raiders
Similarly, I don't expect the banged up Las Vegas defense to offer much resistance in this one. As mad as I was about Buffalo getting bailed out by a phantom pass interference penalty last week to ruin my upset pick, I can't let that affect my objectivity here. They should put up plenty of points, and their defense should bounce back against a Raiders offense lacking in perimeter weapons at the moment. With the corners the Bills have, they can put them on an island and simply load up in the middle to stop Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.
Ravens -13.5 at Washington
Again, I'm not going to overreact to last week's bad showing. This many points on the road does give me pause, but it's hardly much of a trip for Baltimore against one of the worst teams in the league. It's just hard to see Washington's offense keeping up to cover even this generous of a spread, especially if Terry McLaurin (thigh, questionable) is unable to give it a go.
Home Underdogs
Dolphins +6.5 versus Seahawks
Miami's offense, on the other hand, should be able to match scores here thanks to Seattle's swiss cheese pass defense that will be missing Jamal Adams, and they are coming off of extra rest after the TNF win. For what it's worth, the Seahawks will also be traveling about the furthest you could possibly go across the country. While it's fully expected that Russell Wilson outduels Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think the score will be closer than expected.
Lions +4.5 versus Saints
This one could be a little more dicey. Michael Thomas remains out for New Orleans, and now they'll also be missing the starting left guard, tight end, defensive end, and both corners. With Drew Brees not pushing the ball downfield at all this season, Detroit needs to just focus on containing Alvin Kamara. That is easier said than done of course, but the Lions could easily outscore them at home.
Home Favorites
Bengals -3.5 versus Jaguars
I'm not entirely sure Cincinnati is good enough to lay more than a field goal against anyone yet, but facing Jacksonville is as good of a chance as any to do so. With Joe Burrow looking as good as expected already and their second round pick Tee Higgins rapidly rising alongside him, they should take advantage of this defense like Ryans, Fitzpatrick and Tannehill, have the last two weeks. James Robinson could have a big day to keep the Jags in it, but if they fall behind early, Gardner Minshew could be forced into some more turnovers.
Cowboys -4.5 versus Browns
The potential return of Tyron Smith at left tackle is huge for Dallas because as long as they keep Myles Garrett at bay, continuing to move the ball like they have shouldn't be a problem. That could force Cleveland out of their favored gameplan of running early and often, and I don't like Baker Mayfield's odds in a shootout with Dak Prescott.
Buccaneers -7.5 versus Chargers
Likewise, LA's conservative attack isn't likely to get it done against a team as talented as Tampa Bay. While Justin Herbert has shown encouraging sings, I'm not going to take him against in his first career road start with Tom Brady on the other side. Injuries will rob us of a Chris battle in the slot between Godwin and Harris, but Casey Hayward versus Mike Evans should be fun. Brady hasn't been afraid to throw it up with the size advantage, and with Rob Gronkowski also getting more involved, they should take care of business even with a bit of a higher spread than I'd prefer.
Rams -12.5 versus Giants
This is also a little higher than I thought it would be, but like with the Ravens in a similar spot, Los Angeles should put up points in bunches that the opposing second year QB can't match. In their first test without Saquon Barkley or Sterling Shepard, New York did not look good at home against a 49ers defense missing key starters, so how will they fare traveling across the country against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey?
49ers -6.5 versus Eagles
San Francisco is still a little shorthanded in pass defense, but that might not matter against a Philadelphia team that is missing Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Dallas Goedert. They also remain winless after tying at home against Cincy following a punt with 19 second left...from the opposing 46...despite the Bengals having *checks notes* no timeouts and a kicker who is 10-21 from 50+ yards. The Niners are also getting some reinforcements on offense with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel set to rejoin Brandon Aiyuk in the passing game, so as long as Nick Mullens takes care of the ball in another spot start, they'll be in good shape.
Road Underdogs
Vikings +3.5 at Texans
Along with Philly, here are two of the most disappointing teams (a 0-8-1 combined record between three playoff teams from last year is stunning), and it's hard to know what to expect from either of them. Both defenses have sprung leaks all year, but Minnesota at least has more room for improvement if Kirk Cousins' turnover rate comes down to normal to put them in more favorable situations. I'll take the points in a close contest that could come down to a last second field goal.
Patriots +7.5 at Chiefs
When Kansas City plays like they did on Monday, it's hard to see them ever losing, but if there is a defensive strategist that can at least slow them down, it's Bill Belichick. Though Patrick Mahomes won the most recent battle between them, New England won the first two, and all three have been within seven points. I like the chances of Cam Newtown and this rushing attack giving the reigning champs a run for their money.
10/3 UPDATE: The week being thrown into even more chaos due to COVID-19 has me changing this pick to the Chiefs since Cam Newtown will be out. If this game is even played on Monday or Tuesday, that is.
Falcons +7.5 at Packers
Picking an Atlanta team whose defense has been picked apart in every game and is on the road against the highest scoring team so far could certainly come back to haunt me. They are so explosive themselves, though, and I don't fully trust the Green Bay defense just yet. With it being more than a touchdown, I'm taking the points in what should be a fun shootout on MNF.
Last week: 12-4
Season total: 28-20
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