NFL 2020 Week 8 Picks

Appropriately for Halloween, this is a bit of a scary week with some high spreads. There are eight games with teams favored by 3.5 on CBS Sports for my pick 'em pool compared to only one that is under a field goal. That already came back to haunt me in yesterday's game, which makes me a little better about leaning towards divisional favorites the rest of the weekend.

Home Favorites 

Panthers -3.5 versus Falcons

I was worried about laying more than a field goal in this tight divisional affair, and it turned out Carolina's defense wasn't actually good enough to win period.

Packers -6.5 versus Vikings 

Aaron Rodgers kicked off Minnesota's disastrous defensive season and is likely to continue it back at home with Davante Adams firing on all cylinders now that he's healthy. Dalvin Cook's return after the bye is a boost for the Vikings, but if they fall behind early, that could limit how much they're able to run him.

Chiefs -19.5 versus Jets

A spread of this size would lead to me taking the points a lot of the time, but you've got arguably the best team in the league at home against the worst team. Don't get cute; the Kansas City defense proved me wrong last week with their ability to extend a blowout.

Browns -2.5 versus Raiders

I've gone back and forth on this one, but the only spread that's under a field goal is too tempting with Cleveland at home. They've shown that they can compete with teams that aren't the juggernauts of their division, and while the narrative that their offense is better without Odell Beckham Jr. is ridiculous, they draw an easy first test in the Las Vegas defense. I actually like Derek Carr to put up some points of his own, as well, but I don't trust the team overall on the road.

Eagles -3.5 versus Cowboys

This line is higher in most sports books, but since CBS Sports doesn't change it after releasing, I get the benefit of more information this time. With unheralded rookie Ben DiNucci on the road for his first start against a Philadelphia defense that's finding its stride, I'd be comfortable laying even around 7 to 10 points. It's not like the worst defense in the league is likely to keep this close to make it easier for him.

Road Underdogs

Steelers +3.5 at Ravens

Baltimore coming off of the bye is intimidating, but I like Pittsburgh to win this game outright. They're the more complete team right now, and their vaunted defensive front could cause a lot of problems for the Ravens' style of offense.

Patriots +3.5 at Bills

Another divisional game that should at least be close with the possibility of an upset. Bill Belichick is 3-0 against Josh Allen, and I think the mastermind will continue to scheme up ways to stymie him. It would be classic Patriots stunning a first place team while missing a ton of players after a three game losing streak.

*10/31 UPDATE: I really wanted to go with New England pulling the upset with their backs against the wall, but they are just so short handed now with Defensive Player of the year Stephon Gillmore officially out against his former team in addition to both starting receivers.

*11/1 UPDATE: Reports of terrible weather have me flipping the pick back to the Pats since wind limiting the passing game favors them right now. 

49ers +3.5 at Seahawks

Speaking of the Patriots' losing streak, San Francisco is the team that just embarrassed them for the worst home loss of the Belichick era. They have looked back in 2019 form these last two weeks, although this pick is riskier after losing Deebo Samuel again along with Jeff Wilson in his breakout game. One more road team getting more than a field goal in a divisional game, though? Sure, why not; it's not like Seattle plays in many games that don't end up as one possession games anyway.

Road Favorites

Colts -3.5 at Lions

The Atlanta defense allowing Detroit to go 75 yards in 1:04 for the win was ridiculous, but now the Lions are facing a drastically better team in Indianapolis. Coming off of a bye, I'm looking for their defense to be refreshed with star linebacker Darius Leonard back and hopefully their offense to be more consistent with rookies Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. more integrated into the game plan.

Saints -4.5 at Bears

The status of Chicago's two best players, Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson, is in doubt, and after a pitiful showing on Monday night, it's hard to have any confidence in them. New Orleans continues to be without their starting receivers, but they've shown the ability to pull out W's during this three game winning streak.

Chargers -3.5 at Broncos

Fresh off of the first of likely many wins with Justin Herbert under center, LA could finally have a winning streak going after all of their blown leads. I don't love going over the field goal in this divisional matchup, but Denver just got smacked at home within the division last week. 

Home Underdogs

Bengals +5.5 versus Titans

Another week, another pick of Cincinnati against the spread. On the one hand, they were fortunate to cover with the missed extra point in the final seconds depending on when you got the line. On the other, they were leading for a lot of that game just like in the previous week against Indy and deserved at least a cover. I'm not sure if they'll finally close out the game this time, but I like them again at home against a leaky Tennessee defense.

Dolphins +3.5 versus Rams***

This was one of the tougher picks with Miami coming off of a bye and making the surprising switch to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. They've been playing surprisingly well, particularly on defense, but you don't know what to expect in his first start against a star studded defense. I'm giving LA the benefit of the doubt after their dominating performance on Monday, but I don't feel great about it.

*10/31 UPDATE: After thinking on it some more, I flipped on this one due to the fact that LA is traveling across the country on a short week against a rookie quarterback with essentially zero NFL film on him.

Giants +10.5 versus Buccaneers

Possibly my worst pick of the week considering how good Tampa Bay is looking, but their strong defense showed some vulnerability at times against the Raiders. Although, New York is definitely liable to turn the ball over against them, they looked decent enough to hang around the last time we saw them on TNF. Strong free agent signing James Bradberry has also done well against Mike Evans in the past, and with Chris Godwin unavailable again, I like the home team with the extra days of rest to cover.

Last week: 8-6

Season total: 59-46