I’m going keep things short this week because I’ve been preoccupied with the election coverage and some work stuff that required my focus more than this side hobby. I hope to have news on those things soon, but for now, here’s a more abbreviated version than usual.
Road Favorites
Packers -2.5 at 49ers
One of the easiest TNF picks of the season, unfortunately.
Seahawks -2.5 at Bills
Seattle's been one of the best West Coast teams traveling East, and this line is exactly where I expected it to be for the better overall team. There is some worry about Buffalo's pass-centric offense this year taking advantage of the Seahawks' beleaguered pass defense, but the return of Jamal Adams and debut of Carlos Dunlap should help.
Seahawks headed to Buffalo with a 10-game win streak in eastern time zone, counting playoffs (per @EpKap and @ESPNStatsInfo) https://t.co/6CBCiv9F5n
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) November 4, 2020
Texans -6.5 at Jaguars
I'm usually on the other side of this kind of divisional spread, but I took this same Jacksonville +6.5 in Week 5 only to regret it. Now they are starting a 6th round rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, so I'm laying the touchdown.
Steelers -9.5 at Cowboys
Speaking of quarterbacks making their first career starts, Garrett Gilbert is going to be the fourth different signal caller for Dallas this year, and he's up against the toughest pass rush in the league. Good luck.
Patriots -7.5 at Jets
Another large divisional spread that I've been going against, but it's the Jets with Joe Flacco likely at quarterback. They did cover at home against Buffalo a few weeks back, but they're exactly what New England needs to end their losing streak.
Home Underdogs
Colts +3.5 versus Ravens
Taking all of those road favorites means only one home 'dog this week, so hopefully I chose the right now. My thinking is that the Indianapolis defense that is back to being a strength, especially up front, will continue to make things difficult for Baltimore's offense that has yet to fully get on track. This feels like a field goal game.
Home Favorites
Vikings -4.5 versus Lions
I was ready to take Detroit with the points when I saw this spread, but Matthew Stafford missing practice all week due to being in close contact with a positive COVID-19 case swung me the other way. He is expected to be back in time to start, but that missed time along with Kenny Golladay being out again means they aren't likely to take advantage of Minnesota's secondary like everyone else. The absence of Tracy Walker on defense also makes this an even more appealing for Dalvin Cook running the ball down their throats and controlling the game.
Chargers -1.5 versus Raiders
This is the type of spread that I'd often take Las Vegas with since they always play well in Southern California and the home team isn't being rated highly enough to get the full field goal. I like LA as the more talented team looking to bounce back after yet another devastatingly close loss under Anthony Lynn.
Cardinals -4.5 versus Dolphins
This might be the pick I'm the least confident in because Miami has been on a roll, but you can't count on them getting all of those turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns again. I really want to take Tua Tagovailoa with the points, but he looked like he still needs more reps before he ultimately shows the star that he will become.
Road Underdogs
Broncos +4.5 at Falcons
Another 4.5 spread that I'm not particularly confident about. On the one hand, Denver was a bit lucky to pull off that big comeback last week, but on the other, Atlanta is known for allowing big comebacks. I don't trust the home team's defense to cover.
Bears +5.5 at Titans
Another defense that I don't have enough faith in to cover more than a field goal right now. The Desmond King trade was an absolute steal, but it's unclear if he'll be ready in time to play, which could mean this unit is the tonic that Chicago's sluggish offense needs.
Panthers +10.5 at Chiefs
Way too many points against a competitive team that is finally getting their best player back in Christian McCaffrey.
Giants +3.5 at Washington
After winning Daniel Jones' very first start against Tampa Bay, New York is 3-0 against Washington and 0-16 against everyone else with him under center. Like when these teams faced each other Week 6, I'll take the points since neither is good enough to lay more than a field goal.
Saints +4.5 at Buccaneers
This was one of the most shocking spreads of the week because New Orleans dominated the season opener between these two. Granted, it was at home while this will be in Tampa Bay, but between two teams that are pretty evenly matched, I like the underdog.
Last week: 8-6
Season total: 67-52
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