Well, that was rough. After consistently holding steady each week, the bottom fell out for a 5-9 week. It was a mix of some tough close calls like Houston allowing a late touchdown to blow the cover and Anthony Lynn continuing to handle the clock poorly in a loss at the buzzer, but I also had some straight up bad calls. This week isn't off to a great start with another home team going down, so that's something to keep in mind with these picks.
Home Favorites
Titans -2.5 versus Colts
It started out so promising with that opening drive, too. What is especially annoying is that I went the opposite way with both teams last week, and then last night they gave the type of performance that I had expected.
Lions -3.5 versus Washington
The Alex Smith comeback story is incredible, and I highly recommend watching ESPN's E:60 feature on it. That being said, he has shown some serious rust in his appearances thus far, so I'm going against him until he shows a reason not to even though I don't like that extra half point.
Packers -14.5 versus Jaguars
I mentioned the Jake Luton late touchdown in the opener, and that is a possibility again with an even larger spread here. However, this will be his first road start, and although the status of Green Bay starting corners Jaire Alexander and Kevin King are worth monitoring, the rookie quarterback should be under a lot of pressure throughout the game. Add in the fact that Jacksonville's defense could get picked apart by Aaron Rodgers, and I'm reluctantly laying this many points.
Rams -1.5 versus Seahawks
After losing the first game, Los Angeles has won four of five meetings between these divisional rivals under Sean McVay, and even the loss last year came down to a missed Greg Zuerlein field goal at the end. Coming off of the bye week, I like them to continue to stay undefeated in their new stadium with that shaky Seattle secondary coming into town.
Saints -9.5 versus 49ers
Maybe New Orleans has a bit of a letdown after their monstrous divisional win in prime time last week, but they're back at home against the still undermanned San Francisco roster. Even without a full capacity crowd, I am not taking Nick Mullens in the Superdome, no thank you.
Road Underdogs
Texans +3.5 at Browns
One team's starting running back, Nick Chubb, is returning while the other just put theirs, David Johnson, on IR due to a concussion, but that doesn't change my pick. Give me the better quarterback with the points.
Chargers +2.5 at Dolphins
I'm not saying that Miami should've taken Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa, but I am saying that the former has (understandably) looked more ready. As much of a Tagovailoa fan as I am, the defense and special teams generating points like they have shouldn't be sustainable. Maybe Brian Flores will coach circles around Lynn, but I think these teams could see their luck flipped after both went to the wire last week.
Bengals +7.5 at Steelers
I've been riding with Cincinnati and the spread all season, and I'm not stopping now with them getting over a touchdown in a divisional affair. The fact that their worst loss was against Baltimore with their similarly relentless pressure does give me pause, but I'm willing to chalk that one up to the terrible weather.
Broncos +5.5 at Raiders
Las Vegas is understandably favored to win, but I am not comfortable laying this many points with their defense in a divisional matchup. Denver burned me last week after I didn't take into account the fact that they were missing both starting corners, but they did have a late flurry to almost cover. Against this passing game compared to Atlanta's, there shouldn't be as much of a deficit to make up with A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan returning.
Bills +1.5 at Cardinals
This spread was an eyebrow raiser after Buffalo's big win against Seattle and Arizona's home loss to Miami. Like I've said before, Vegas not giving the home team the full field goal handicup indicates that they're not the better team, and I agree with that. I'm taking the more complete team but don't have a ton of confidence in it.
Road Favorites
Eagles -3.5 at Giants
Coming off of the bye week, Philadelphia is finally getting healthy and has the opportunity to take a firm grip in the pathetic NFC East race. Taking more than a field goal is tempting, but after New York nearly blew their game last week against the backup quarterback, they look susceptible to giving up a lot of points here.
Ravens -7.5 at Patriots
I've gone back and forth on this one because this seems like way too many points to lay against Bill Belichick, especially at home. Baltimore showed once again last week that they can pull away from teams, though, so after picking against them in a similar spot, I've learned my mistake and taking their defense against the limited New England passing game.
Vikings -2.5 at Bears
I know, I know, Kirk Cousins in prime time is not good. It's under a field goal, though, and their defense has been playing better since the bye week. I got a bit lucky taking Nick Foles and the points last week, and I'm not going to push the issue with him again.
Home Underdogs
Panthers +6.5 versus Buccaneers
Like Cincy, taking Carolina with the points has been pretty good for me, and now they're at home against a divisional foe that looked terrible last week. I'm a little worried about the difference in quality on defense now that the Panthers' side has come back down to expectations recently, but they've been competitive in almost every game.
Last week: 5-9
Season total: 72-61
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