After a subpar Week 4, I don't have a strong feel for this slate of games, either. There were only two mathchups between teams that both have winning records, and after last night's game, only the Browns and Colts affair remains. That's resulted in a lot of high spreads to navigate.
Home Underdogs
Bears +5.5 versus Buccaneers
Well, that wasn't the ending I expected, but I did like getting that many points with a good defense at home for a Thursday game. It was definitely uncomfortable picking Nick Foles against Tom Brady, but it's not the first time he pulled off the upset, of course.
Of all the pirate jokes, I’ve never heard the “how much does it cost to pierce an ear” one Tony Gonzalez just said 🤣. Almost good enough to sway my tentative Bears +5.5 pick
— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) October 9, 2020
Titans +6.5 versus Bills
This game isn't part of the usual CBS Sports slate that my pick 'em pool is on, so I'm using the line form VegasInsider.com, which is quite a bit higher than I thought it would be. Buffalo should have the advantage after all of the nonsense around how Tennessee handled their COVID-19 outbreak, but I think it will still be close. The silver lining of the early "bye week" is that it gave more time for A.J. Brown to get healthy, and if the Titans can get some mismatches with him in the slot, there will be be big plays to be had against a defense that has sprung more leaks than usual in second halves.
Road Favorites
Cardinals -7.5 at Jets
Arizona suffered a harsh wakeup call that they aren't as good as they seemed last week as road favorites, but they get an easier task against the worst team in the league. Sam Darnold wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he at least demonstrated some creativity in a terrible situation. Fill-in starter Joe Flacco isn't likely to have much left in the tank.
Rams -8.5 at Washington
LA likewise didn't cover last week, but they at least won and are now getting Kyle Allen in his first start for Washington. I don't think "knowing the system" will make up for a lack of talent, especially against a defense as capable as the Rams'.
Colts -2.5 at Browns
Indianapolis has pretty much been in complete control of all of their games after that Week 1 wakeup call, so I feel pretty good about only having to lay a field goal here. Maybe I'm selling Cleveland short after three straight wins of their own, but I still have a hard time believing in their ability to keep up with good teams. It is hilarious that Kevin Stefanski has as many wins (3) in just four games as Hue Jackson had over his 40 game tenure, though.
Road Underdogs
Bengals +13.5 at Ravens
Lamar Jackson's status isn't truly in question, but missing back to back practices does raise some eyebrows. Baltimore did also allow Washington to hang around a bit to make covering two touchdowns a little too close for comfort, and now they're facing a much better quarterback in Joe Burrow, who just became the first rookie quarterback to post three straight 300 yard games. This many points being involved in a divisional battle leads me to side with the underdog to cover, and the fact that Ciny is 4-0 against the spread doesn't hurt either.
Jaguars +6.5 at Texans
This spread isn't nearly as bad, but it's still too high for my liking in a divisional battle between two bad teams. One of which just fired their coach, and maybe that will inspire the troops to rally with a fresh start. Maybe they are just a team that can't get enough defensive stops, though, and Jacksonville has some weapons that will make you pay for any lapses. James Robinson, in particular, is primed to have a big day against a porous run defense after looking even better than I could have imagined when I picked him as my breakout player for the team.
Giants +9.5 at Cowboys
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I like getting this many points in what should be a close divisional matchup, and I just can't trust the Dallas defense to cover after another abysmal outing. They just gave up 307 rushing yards even with Nick Chubb getting hurt after just 14 snaps, so even the mediocre New York offense run by former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett could find success this week. Left tackle Tyron Smith joining right tackle La'el Collins on the shelf for the rest of the season certainly doesn't help matters, either.
Broncos +8.5 at Patriots
With it looking likely that Cam Newton will miss another game, this is a relatively easy pick since CBS Sports doesn't change their spreads after coming out on Tuesdays. Denver is also coming off of 10 days rest that might allow Drew Lock to return to the lineup after Brett Rypien's uneven starting debut. They should be able to compete better without the quarterback throwing three inexplicable interceptions. Crazy concept, I know.
Chargers +7.5 at Saints
Both of these teams finished their games a lot different than how they started last week, and it would probably make more sense to pick the one that is trending up. However, Justin Herbert continuing to impress is what stood out the most, and with LA's defense on his side, they can hang in there even on the road. I will say that Drew Brees did look more like his old self with some actual throws downfield in that comeback that turned into an easy win, but the rookie's live arm could create more big plays in this one.
Home Favorites
Falcons -2.5 versus Panthers
The fact that the Vegas sportsbooks still have confidence in Atlanta and doubt in Carolina despite their recent performances makes me feel a little better about this pick. That Calvin Ridley near-touchdown could've actually given a cover last week, and now they are back home at least. This is their best chance at a win yet, so maybe their defense can get off the schneid against a banged up Panthers offensive line and with 1st round pick A.J. Terrell returning on the back end.
Chiefs -12.5 versus Raiders
Of all the divisional matchups with high spreads, this is the only one I feel comfortable about thanks to the recent history between the teams. Since becoming the Chiefs coach in 2013, Andy Reid is 12-2 against the Raiders, and in Patrick Mahomes' four starts, they have won by 7, 32, 18, and 31. Overall, they've won by 13 or more in nine of the 14 games, so they should take care of business at home.
Steelers -7.5 versus Eagles
In the battle of Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh's elite defensive front is likely to dominate Philadelphia's offensive line that's in shambles. Now that the Eagles aren't facing a backup quarterback that provides three terrible turnovers, their current holes should become more apparent after last week.
49ers -8.5 versus Dolphins
Speaking of which, my closing line about avoiding turnovers when picking San Francisco against Philly ended up being a kiss of death, but thankfully, Jimmy Garoppolo is back healthy now and with his full complement of weapons for the first time. That is important since Miami is getting back star corner Byron Jones to provide more resistance. Conversely, nickel corner K'Waun Williams is yet another 49ers player on IR, but the defense played well overall in the last loss with only 267 total yards allowed. They just need to be more careful about quarterback runs that have haunted them the past year and a half, especially since Ryan Fitzpatrick was actually the Dolphins leading rusher last year despite being 37.
Seahawks -7.5 versus Vikings
Kirk Cousins in prime time? In this economy?
I kid, I kid; getting more than a touchdown was actually very tempting against Seattle's shaky secondary. However, what their defense is good at is stopping the run, which will be huge against Dalvin Cook, and on the other side, Minnesota's defense is likely to be shredded by Russell Wilson. They just don't have the cornerback quality that they normally do under Mike Zimmer, and Danielle Hunter remains out along the defensive line.
Last week: 7-8
Season total: 35-28
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