Last week went roughly how I expected with my picks breaking even, but I have more confidence in this slate. The spreads were more in line with how I felt about the matchups, so I'm up to seven favorites this week with a lot of appealing road favorites in particular.
Home Favorites
Patriots -8.5 versus Broncos
Steelers -3.5 versus Browns
Pittsburgh letting Philadelphia hang around last week was a little concerning, but they covered the -7.5 in the end. This spread isn't as daunting, and despite it being (barely) over a field goal in a divisional game, everyone knows Ben Roethlisberger's record against teams from his native Ohio. Against the Browns specifically, the Steelers are 23-2-1 with Big Ben starting.
Dolphins -8.5 versus Jets
It's actually a little surprising that this line isn't even higher considering the dumpster fire that is New York. Adam Gase and Gregg Williams continually blaming others just shows how bad they are as coaches.
Road Underdogs
Texans +5.5 at Titans
I'm mad at myself for not picking Houston last week since I normally go with teams in the first game after firing a coach. Maybe it would've been a different story if Jacksonville's fourth kicker of the season had actually made his attempts, or maybe the Texans can actually turn things around. In a divisional game with Tennessee coming off of an unusually short week, I like the upset here.
Falcons +3.5 at Vikings
Speaking of a team that just fired their coach, this was probably my hardest pick of the week. I'm not sure Raheem Morris is really going to right the ship for Atlanta, but it can't get much worse. Getting Julio Jones back against Minnesota's young corners is more of a difference maker, and although I may regret not picking the Vikings like last week, that collapse didn't inspire confidence in their ability to hold a lead.
Bengals +7.5 at Colts
Both of these teams let me down with disappointing offensive showings, and while Cincinnati's could be attributed to a ferocious Baltimore defense, the level of play from 38 year old Philip Rivers wasn't encouraging. Indianapolis should bounce back at home, but I don't trust them to score enough to cover.
Washington +3.5 at Giants
What has New York shown to lay more than a field goal against anyone? This is a good chance for them to get their first win, but I'll take the points in what should be an ugly divisional battle.
Bears +2.5 at Panthers
This is tough because I really want to like Carolina, even without Christian McCaffrey still, while I don't think Chicago is as good as their 4-1 record...but the goal is to stay objective here. The Bears defense matches up well with their ability to contain the passing game, and despite this being a #revengegame for Mike Davis, he's been playing over his head a bit.
Khalil Mack just tossing 340-pound Tristan Wirfs 👀 pic.twitter.com/65Ti6t578a
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 9, 2020
Road Favorites
Ravens -7.5 at Eagles
Another week, another difficult AFC North defensive front for the battered Philadelphia offense to face. I was tempted to take the points with them at home since they actually put up more points than expected last week, but Baltimore is back to playing at an elite level. Maybe the stout Eagles front seven limits the running game, but their secondary isn't likely to hold up here.
Lions -3.5 at Jaguars
After a surprising start to the season, Jacksonville is who we thought they were. After the bye week, maybe Detroit will be the upstart team that many pundits thought they were heading into the season. Even if they're not, this spread is reasonable enough to stick with the favorite since they should be able to put up plenty of points.
Packers -1.5 at Buccaneers
Another reasonable spread with an NFC North team coming off of a bye, Green Bay is going to have Davante Adams fully back from that hamstring issue to provide even more explosiveness into this resurgent offense. Chris Godwin's return on the other side should also jolt some life into his offense, but that might not be enough to make up for the fact that Tom Brady was under siege quite a bit in last week's surprising loss. That could continue against the pass rush of the Packers.
Chiefs -3.5 at Bills
Buffalo is coming off of a short week and their worst showing of the year only to get the reigning champs coming into town. The defense was in shambles without Tre'Davious White, and if he's out again, Patrick Mahomes will carve them up. Kansas City's defense will need to bounce back themselves, but they face the easier task with Josh Allen continuing to put the ball in harm's way.
Home Underdogs
49ers +3.5 versus Rams
Maybe I'm being a homer, but if San Francisco is going to save their season, it needs to happen on Sunday night. Hopefully Jimmy Garoppolo's high ankle sprain is more recovered after another week since he wasn't able to drive the ball off of that plant leg last week and never looked comfortable in the pocket, leading Kyle Shanahan to make the quarterback switch at halftime to protect him. Getting Emmanuel Moseley back at corner is just as important on the other side after practice squad call up Brian Allen was continually picked on, and with LA featuring a conservative passing game so far, the lack of an outside pass rush at the moment isn't as daunting.
Cowboys +2.5 versus Cardinals
I've gone back and forth on this after the terrible injury to Dak Prescott, but Andy Dalton is arguably the best backup option in the league. His first start coming in primetime, which he's struggled in, isn't ideal, but he is going to be at home against an uneven Arizona defense that just suffered a big loss of its own in Chandler Jones. Returning to a stadium he's had success in back in high school and college, Kyler Murray could have a big day against the Dallas defense if he continues to push the ball downfield like he finally did last week, but it remains to be seen if that was just thanks to the matchup against the Jets. I'm going with the home team rallying in response to losing their leader like last week.
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