Last week had the potential to be great but ended up just "pretty good" at 9-5. The Houston loss was the biggest swing game in my pick 'em pool, and the fact that they were that close to being up 9 with 1:50 left before giving up the touchdown in overtime to not even cover the +5.5 was devastating. Baltimore's 16 point lead with 7:12 left dwindling to just a two point win was frustrating in a different way since yet another terrible pass interference call kickstarted Philadelphia's final drive. I'm not as mad about Green Bay blowing their 10-0 lead after the first quarter since they ended being dominated the rest of the way, but I am just upset with myself for the Dallas pick after writing about the narratives of Kyler Murray in AT&T Stadium and Andy Dalton in prime time. Alas, I still gained ground in my group, and we're onto another week!
*I also want to plug my latest contribution to The Sports Fan Journal: Six Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates to Trade For, which digs into snap rates, rushing share, and target share to find underrated values.*
Home Favorites
Eagles -3.5 versus Giants
Welp, that was a frustrating game with the red zone interception and missed 29 yard field goal keeping New York in the game. There was even still a chance if the first two-point conversion would've worked to make it 21-18 before the winning touchdown, but at the same time, Philadelphia was fortunate to win the game at all.
Falcons -2.5 versus Lions
There is a little bit of a theme here with teams favored despite having a worse record, and I'm following the money in this case. It's hard to tell how much of Atlanta's turnaround win last week was due to the coaching change and how much was just due to bad Kirk Cousins interceptions, but they looked good on the road. Now they're back at home with Julio Jones appearing back to full speed, so I'm expecting them to put up a lot of points against Detroit. Matthew Stafford could match his buddy Matt Ryan score for score, especially since both are incredibly good in the two-minute drill, but the former hasn't looked quite as sharp in the early going.
Rams -5.5 versus Bears
Even though I picked Chicago last week, it really is a bit unbelievable that they're 5-1 with all of their games within 8 points. Going on the road against a team of this quality might be their toughest test yet, and I don't think they'll be up to it this time. It also helps that LA is 11-4 following a loss under Sean McVay, so while I'm not expecting a lot of offensive production for the Rams in this matchup, I think the Bears will have even less.
Road Underdogs
Panthers +7.5 at Saints
Maybe I'll regret this after overrating the injury factor for New Orleans again, but this time they're without Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19 Reserve List) in addition to Michael Thomas (hamstring now) in the passing game. While I've long been a believer in Tre'Quan Smith as someone who could take the next step, it's not exactly like this offense was blowing teams away anyway. I'm excited to see what Joe Brady has drawn up for Teddy Bridgewater in their return to the Superdome, and with how tough Carolina has played teams all year, I like getting over a touchdown in a divisional matchup.
Jaguars +8.5 at Chargers
I'm not nearly as confident in taking the points in this one, but it is also over a touchdown against a team that hasn't covered itself in glory. Jacksonville's offense has the ability to hang around or blow an opponent's cover, even if it's been inconsistent of late. So while I'm fully expecting another impressive day for Justin Herbert that nets him his first win, I'm not ready to lay this many points with him yet. It's a stay away game if I were actually in a sports book.
49ers +2.5 at Patriots
Like Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo is returning to a stadium he used to call home, and I think he's going to show why Bill Belichick thought so highly of him. He looked healthier with the ability to actually plant off of that injured back foot as the last game went along after Kyle Shanahan smartly designed a quick game plan to get him going and essentially relegate Aaron Donald to bystander status. It will take another great scheme to outmaneuver the Hoodie, especially since San Francisco could be vulnerable on defense with both starting safeties added to the list of injured starters. The good news, for this pick at least, is that Cam Newton and the passing game looked totally out of synch with struggles for separation.
Road Favorites
Bills -12.5 at Jets
APAAG: Always Pick Against Adam Gase. It really doesn't matter that Josh Allen has regressed back to the mean, and even though I'm happy about Sam Darnold's return, it's really just a matter of when will he have new coaching to aid his development.
Thank God that Darnold is coming back to stop Flacco from moving higher. Different eras means he has 620 more pass attempts than Montana to make it this close https://t.co/uZnFbJHHvN
— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) October 23, 2020
Cowboys -2.5 at Washington
Here's hoping that this past week was more of just Dalton in prime time than a sign of things to come because he has so many weapons at his disposal if he can just handle this tough Washington defensive front. On the other side, Kyle Allen is actually a quarterback that might not tear their defense to shreds, and with this only a field goal, I'm sticking with Dallas.
Steelers -1.5 at Titans
Tennessee's defense continues to underwhelm, and now the offense could also be a little vulnerable after left tackle Taylor Lewan tore an ACL. Ryan Tannehill will feel the pressure immediately against Blitzburgh and their league leading pressure rate. I'm a little worried about the Steelers laying an egg out of nowhere during one of these games like they're ought to do, but that usually happens when they play down to the competition. In a battle of 5-0 teams, I expect the cream to rise to the top.
Packers -3.5 at Texans
The prospect of Aaron Jones sitting this one out due to Green Bay's overly cautious staff is annoying since it's a golden matchup against Houston's porous run defense, but I don't think that's a huge difference maker here. The Packers are a much better team than they showed in the second half of their first loss, and I'm much more confident in them bouncing back than the Texans after their overtime defeat.
Buccaneers -2.5 at Raiders
I was already all about this pick even before Las Vegas had to send their entire offensive line home due to COVID-19 concerns at the beginning of the week. Four of them should be cleared by Sunday, but the missed practice time after the bye is sure to show some rust against this ferocious Tampa Bay defense. I'm also still not a believer in the Raiders defense, so laying just a field goal doesn't seem like much.
Home Underdogs
Bengals +3.5 versus Browns
It's a little unbelievable that Cincinnati blew a 21-0 lead, but at least they still covered on the road. They did the same thing when these teams met in Week 2, albeit with a late score, and now they are at home with Cleveland looking more vulnerable. Although I wish Joe Mixon was playing after he returned to last week's game after sustaining a foot injury, this pick is all about taking Joe Burrow over a banged up Baker Mayfield.
Just threw it right to Fitzpatrick lol https://t.co/K8gdLz9o01
— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) October 18, 2020
Broncos +9.5 versus Chiefs
After I picked Denver with the points in the Week 5 game that was postponed, I flipped my choice for that game last week and paid the price. Their defense is getting healthier now, so as long as Drew Lock avoids the turnovers that nearly cost his team last week, they can hang in this. I made the mistake of laying too many points in Kansas City's last divisional game, and I'm not going to do that again.
Cardinals +3.5 versus Seahawks
Is this an overreaction to Monday Night Football? Maybe. Seattle's pass defense has been terrible, however, and with Kyler Murray now pushing the ball downfield more over the past two wins, I think things could get interesting here. Arizona's secondary has been surprisingly solid at limiting wide receivers, so Russell Wilson might not be able to dial up the bombs that he's been so deadly with this season. With it just over a field goal, I'll take the underdog in prime time.
Last week: 9-5
Season total: 51-40
No comments:
Post a Comment