But that's not the point of this post, the Champions League is. It's back! After sports had to go on hiatus in the middle of the round of 16 due to COVID-19, the second legs concluded over the weekend. Due to the time off, it will now be a single elimination tournament all held in Lisbon, but we now know the last eight teams. Finishing up an exercise I did after the draw was made, here is a visual of how Five Thirty Eight ranks the remaining squads with probabilities of advancing to each stage:
The way the bracket played out means that the three best teams remaining are grouped together, so the odds of winning the Final are pretty wide open. Bayern Munich is actually ranked right behind Manchester City with the two of them in a tier of their own, but having to face the very next best team in Barcelona creates quite a difficult path to glory. City owns a 52% chance of making it to the Final compared to Bayern's 31% as a result, but the difference in the probability of winning it all is just 37% to 21%. That being said, Germany's eight time defending champions are my pick to win it all and complete the treble like in 2012/2013 after winning 30 of 33 matches in all competitions since replacing Niko Kovac with Hansi Flick in November.
Robert Lewandowski was absolutely robbed by the cancellation of this year's Ballon d'Or after every major league returned to play except for Ligue 1 in France, whose magazine just happens to award the trophy, and his torrid run continued in the return to action this weekend with 2 goals and 2 assists to bring his overall totals to 53 and 8. The biggest concern is the ankle injury to Benjamin Pavard, who has been an absolute rock at right back. While midfielder Joshua Kimmich is more than capable of shifting back to the position again, he does like to get upfield more often, and this is also leaving the center of the pitch more vulnerable with Leon Goretzka next to Thiago. The high press will be key to limit opportunities to exploit that space, Thomas Müller's work rate in that regard has been almost as impressive as his Bundesliga record 21 assists. I must admit to some bias in picking my favorite team here, but the run they have been on, including an undefeated record since the season resumed, speaks for itself.
The club most likely to face Bayern in the Final, Paris Saint-Germain, benefited the most from the draw with three of the four weakest remaining teams on their side of the bracket, and that explains their 14% chance of winning it all despite being ranked 4th among competitors. However, the question on everyone's mind is the health of Kylian Mbappe after a serious ankle injury in the Coupe de France Final on July 24th. The 21 year old forward has been on his way to staking a claim to the title of best player in the world since arriving in the capital, and his firepower could be needed against a high-flying Atalanta squad that led Serie A in goals with 98, 19 more than anyone else en route to a 3rd place finish. Should the depths of their talent prevail, PSG would face either RB Leipzig or Athletico Madrid, both of whom also finished 3rd in their respective leagues. I was a bit surprised to see the latter as slight underdogs after their impressive knockout of reigning champs Liverpool, and their tough defense could actually be the biggest threat to the top teams should they hit on their 22% chance of reaching the Final.
Manchester City are well-deserved favorites, of course. In addition to having arguably the deepest collection of talent, they're facing a Lyon team that was only 7th in Ligue 1. It's no surprise that there is an 89% probability of them advancing to the semifinals, which is one third of the battle already. Which City team are going to see, though? The one that has outscored teams 37-2 in their 10 wins since the restart, or the one that looked listless in shutouts by Southampton and Arsenal? The possible return of Sergio Aguero would help, but that uncertainty along with questions around Aymeric Laporte's partner at center back gives me pause. They are frontrunners that run away from teams once they get ahead, and I'm not sure how that will play against either of manager Pep Guardiola's former teams in the semifinal. I've already talked about Bayern, and Barca just saw Lionel Messi set a La Liga record with 20 assists in addition to his 25 goals. A lack of confidence in Quique Setién's coaching strategy along with the hardest possible path to the Final don't make them a likely pick at just 9%, but that magical left foot can flip any one-legged affair. In any case, whoever emerges from that triumvirate will be favorites for the title, and it will be fun to see how this unusual situation plays out.
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