Super Bowl LV

I took a break from making picks since my pick 'em pool was only for the regular season, but now the big game is just about here! My would be choices went 7-4-1 to improve a little bit on my mediocre 131-125 season, and this weekend I'm going with...Kansas City -3.

The fact that this matchup has some Super Bowl XXXII vibes does worry me. In that game, the hot shot quarterback that won an MVP at a young age and was seeking a repeat championship was upset by an aging first ballot Hall of Famer. However, the analogy obviously isn't perfect since Tom Brady has already had way more success in title games than John Elway had up until that point of his career to avoid any "This one's for John" factor. I also have more confidence in Patrick Mahomes (1.4% career interception rate) taking care of the ball better than Brett Favre (3% rate at that point), especially against a team that he already carved up this season. The Chiefs relented late in that game to result in a blown cover, but their three point margin would be good enough this time around.

Although I don't expect Tampa Bay's defense to play things the same way after Tyreek Hill absolutely incinerated Carlton Davis in single coverage to the tune of 203 yards in the first quarter, the Kansas City offense shouldn't struggle to move the ball if they keep the pedal to the metal for both halves this time. In particular, Todd Bowles has always had a penchant for sending pressure, and Mahomes is the best passer in the league against the blitz according to Pro Football Focus. Perhaps the Buccaneers stick to more of a four man rush against the Chiefs' banged up offensive line that is honestly a concern, but it's nigh impossible to hold down Hill and Travis Kelce down for too long, especially if blitzes do end up leaving gaps in coverage. In particular, the formation with Hill as the inside receiver running a deep crosser has destroyed teams with Kelce drawing attention away from him.

Of course, Tampa's offense has dangerous weapons of their own and could certainly come close to matching points. It will be fun to watch Steve Spagnuolo's unit match up with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown again since the Chiefs defense has been great at limiting wide receivers all season. Fourth round rookie L'Jarius Sneed has been a diamond in the rough at corner much like Charvarius Ward to go along with veteran Bashaud Breeland, so Brady may need to rely on his tight ends and running backs like in his New England days. Neither Leonard Fournette nor Ronald Jones are particularly efficient as receivers, and as much as I love Rob Gronkowski, it's hard to see him matching Kelce's output as a receiver at this point in their careers. Despite being just five months older, entering the league three years earlier has slowed Gronk down considerably, so while he flashes his greatness still at times, carrying the load if the wideouts are contained by KC's scheme is asking a lot. I think he'lls have a nice game after responding with a season high 106 yards in the teams' previous matchup, but he has only average 31.11 yards per game in the other 18 games.

How the Bucs make adjustments from the last meeting will be fascinating to watch. They had a bye the following week and have won seven in a row since, so this pick isn't an easy one. No matter what, the game should at least be a fun one to watch with the two best passing offenses facing off. I'm even expecting the infamous Super Bowl commercials to be fun, and as an aside, I'm hopeful that they will include some new trailers from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Since we've been waiting on footage of Eternals and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings that are due out after Black Widow, those are contenders, or after today's episode of WandaVision, a hint at the crossover with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness would be timely. Back to the topic, Brady does already have enough championship rings to fit an Infinity Gauntlet, but Mahomes is looking poised to eventually surpass him as the G.O.A.T. Winning this weekend to become the first team since Brady's '03-'04 Patriots to repeat as champs will help him on his way to doing so.