At long last, the draft is just about here! That means all of the speculation around who the 49ers will take with the 3rd pick is almost over, but I figured I might as well put together some comprehensive thoughts on the matter instead of just some tweets about the quarterbacks here or there. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are widely expected to be the first two selections by the Jaguars and Jets, respectively, so mock drafts all essentially start with which passer San Francisco selects. Since the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch regime has been remarkably quiet in terms of media leaks, let's ignore all of the rumors about who the likely pick will be for now and dig into the options.
Justin Fields is the second best prospect in my eyes, even ahead of Wilson, with his combination of a high ceiling and floor. At ages 20 and 21, he performed at the highest level to lead Ohio State to a 20-2 record with the two losses only coming in the College Football Playoff. Between the two seasons, he completed 68.39% of his 26.32 attempts per game to average 244.23 passing yards with 63 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions for an impressive Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) of 10.76, and he added 39.41 rushing yards per game with 15 more touchdowns on the ground. It's worth remembering that yards lost on sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, but in any case, he proved that he is much more of a passer than a runner even with his elite physical profile.
At the Buckeyes pro day, Fields measured in at just under 6'3" (6026 in combine terms of feet/inches/ eighths of inches) and a sturdy 227 pounds while running the 40 yard dash in the low 4.4's depending on which scout you listen to. Those are alpha wide receiver type of numbers, and it comes as part of the package with the passer that Pro Football Focus charted as the most accurate in the draft who also only had 18 "turnover-worthy" plays in his whole career. Those completions weren't just on easy passes or screens, either: going downfield led to an average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.4 yards and 69.9% of his yards came through the air rather than after the catch. This also all came against a ridiculously difficult schedule with NumberFire's Jim Sannes finding that 87.6% of his attempts came against top-50 defenses last season.
That is likely a contributing factor to why he held the ball too long at times, and he almost seemed determined to prove his ability to win from the pocket and avoid mistakes. I'm not worried about that negative too much since you can see that he does progress through multiple reads when he's holding it and obviously has the athleticism to get out of trouble. The fact that he sat behind Jake Fromm, a 5th rounder, at Georgia before transferring also isn't that big of a negative since Fields was only a freshman while Fromm had just led the Bulldogs to the National Championship game the prior year. It is notable that Fields is a full year older than usual for his grade since he was born March 5th, 1999, but since he declared for the draft as a junior, he is still a young prospect at age 22.
If you really want a young prospect, though, Trey Lance is tantalizing as the quarterback with possibly the most upside in the class since he won't even turn 21 until May 9th after the draft and has immense physical tools. At just under 6'4" (6037) and 224 pounds with an absolute cannon for an arm, it is astounding that no Power Five programs offered him a scholarship to play quarterback, which led him to FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. Then as a 19 year year old redshirt freshman, he led the Bison to an undefeated National Championship season with the distinction of throwing 28 touchdowns against 0 interceptions and added 14 more scores on the ground. Unfortunately, the pandemic led to their season being postponed to the Spring, so Lance only played in one exhibition game this past year that saw him throw his first pick. He added two touchdown passes and two more rushing, though, and overall in 17 games that were all wins, he had a 65.30% completion percentage to average 172.65 yards passing with only 18.65 attempts for an elite AY/A of 11.01 alongside 73.12 more yards as a rusher.
Those stats are a little hard to compare to other prospects since they came against FCS competition, but the argument could also be flipped to say that he was that efficient with FCS teammates. A few of his most impressive throws were ones that he put on a dime only to be dropped. His team's dominance over that level along with a run-heavy attack led to that small number of attempts per game for a smaller sample size than other passers, though, and that contributes to him being the most volatile option. He does have some accuracy issues, and the lost season really hurt his chances at showing that he's improved in that area.
That is not to say that Lance is a completely raw prospect. To the contrary, he was responsible for making adjustments at the line despite his youth, and his decision making was of course on display with that TD/INT ratio. PFF charted him with just four turnover-worthy plays in 2019 despite an aggressive 11.5-yard aDOT. Some of that efficiency was from the low number of attempts and the fact that he could often just tuck it and run for chunks of yards, but in any case, not forcing the issue is always a good sign. Before the move up to #3, he was someone that I was hoping might fall to #12 as my personal favorite prospect that could pay off in a big way after some patience on the bench to adjust to the huge jump in level. Immediately after the trade, Adam Schefter reported that the Niners intend to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter for 2021 while the draft pick develops, so he could be a mentor to Lance for a season like Alex Smith was to Colin Kaepernick and Patrick Mahomes. Those latter two passers actually provide a decent spectrum of possibilities for the North Dakota State product with his size, athleticism, arm strength, and lack of turnovers, but a thought that's been in my head is that he could be the kind of player that Shanahan's father Mike had in John Elway. Along with Steve Young when Mike Shanahan was the offensive coordinator in San Francisco, Elway is the prototype for this offensive system, and Lance might fit that mold beautifully.
That could also be true of Fields, but the same cannot really be said about the player that's stunningly linked to this pick the most, Mac Jones. Although he has some underrated mobility within the pocket, there is a stark contrast in arm strength and ability to create outside of structure compared to the other four quarterbacks. That didn't stop him from having an outstanding season to lead Alabama to an undefeated National Championship, but he definitely benefited from an almost perfect situation. Behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, Jones feasted on easy throws (8.8 ADoT per PFF) drawn up by Steve Sarkisian with a lot of RPOs, and he was throwing to likely 1st round picks DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle (for five games), and Najee Harris. That led to a single season Division I record 203.1 passing efficiency rating and 77.36% completion percentage. Overall in his 17 career starts that resulted in 16 wins, Jones completed 76.20% of his 29.41 attempts per game for 333.65 yards with 54 touchdowns to 6 interceptions for an AY/A of 12.96.
Those are obviously some magnificent results, but the draft is about looking at the full picture to project towards the future. Born September 5th, 1998, Michael McCorkle Jones didn't become the full time starter until he was already 22, and because he couldn't beat out Jalen Hurts or recruiting classmate Tua Tagovailoa in his first three years, he's something of a one year wonder with the same amount of starts as the much younger Lance. With only average arm strength despite a decent frame of just under 6'3" (6025) and 217 pounds and the aforementioned lack of athleticism, he is really going to have to be a master of the pocket with less margin for error than his compatriots. He also operated almost exclusively out of shotgun formations as ESPN's Nick Wagoner pointed out, and Shanahan's offense is largely predicated by snaps under center with play-action and bootlegs. Playing in similar type of offenses is part of why Wilson and Lance are considered such strong fits in San Francisco. Here is the comparison of drop backs under center among the four possible quarterback options:
I'm not saying that Jones is a bad option; I actually liked him a lot this past year and view him as a fine prospect that's a borderline 1st rounder. I just don't think he has the same kind of traits as the other prospects, and there is also the issue of a DUI in his past that shouldn't be swept under the rug with a decision this large. After all, the 49ers overpaid by sending out the #12 pick, two future 1st round picks, and an extra compensatory pick at the end of the 3rd round for this #3 pick.
(On a side note, the semantics of how the trade is phrased is one of my pet peeves. It should be stated that they traded two 1st round picks and a comp 3rd to move up nine spots from #12 to #3, or it could be stated that they traded three 1st round picks and a comp 3rd for this pick. They didn’t trade three 1st round picks and a comp 3rd to move up.)
The cost of the trade reminded me of when Washington traded up to select Robert Griffin III 2nd after Andrew Luck in 2012, and coincidentally, coming into the season it felt to me like Fields was the 1B to Lawrence’s 1A as a predestined #1 pick like Griffin was to Luck. The Shanahans of course were the coaches for RG3 when he won the Rookie of the Year (which I still say should’ve went to Luck) before he tore his ACL and the team fell apart the following season with Kirk Cousins taking over. I think Fields is a better quarterback than Griffin, but the situation just felt familiar since he and Lawrence have been competing for the top spot in rankings since their high school days in Georgia.
Shanahan has actually known Fields since those prep days when they worked together at the QB Collective camp. It is also noteworthy that Fields has been doing his draft preparation with quarterbacks guru John Beck, who also played under Shanahan in Washington and reportedly remains close with him. ESPN’s Dan Graziano even reported that Lance started working with Beck before his second pro day at the 49ers’ request. I have not read anything about Jones working with Beck at all, so take that for what you will.
While I did not like the cost to make the move up to this pick, I can understand where they're coming from since a roster this talented likely won't be picking this high going forward. After the trade up was made, Shanahan talked about how this was a rare chance to get a top-5 quarterback in the league and that it is difficult to consistently win without one of those type of guys. He said winning from the pocket is the first priority, but those players are ideally bigger and faster than everyone else, which sounded similar to his comments late last year. There was a lot of praise for Josh Allen constantly making plays on the move to beat an otherwise sound Niners defense, so that’s the kind of player you would think this deal was made for.
It’s just hard to see how a football mind as great as Shanahan’s would invest this kind of draft capital in a player like Jones, even if he would seem to fit the Cousins profile that executes what’s given to him. The hype of him going even in the top-10 just feels like an echo chamber of speculation. He would likely have still been there at #12, but if they really were enamored with him to move up, the trade for #6 that only cost Miami one future 1st and a mid-round pick swap was the deal to make. To jump this far up, you’d think it’s for an elite athlete that can also create plays that aren’t initially there like Mahomes showed first hand when he beat them in the Super Bowl just a year ago. However, this regime does have a track record of being pretty good at evaluation with identifying good players but kind of terrible at valuation when it comes to the cost of acquiring them. There’s almost a sort of arrogance to them needing to get “their guy” that they’re confident will fit, and that hasn’t worked out for the most part. None of Reuben Foster, C.J. Beathard, Joe Williams, or Dante Pettis are still on the roster after trading up for them in drafts, and neither are Malcolm Smith or Kwon Alexander after overpaying in free agency.
The move up for Brandon Aiyuk last year looks to be a success, though, and that was a bet on elite physical traits with strong production. Will they make that kind of selection tomorrow with Fields or Lance?
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