March Madness is officially upon us, and after four enthralling First Four games, the final bracket is now set. I thought about doing a deep dive into how I made my picks, but instead, here's a brief look at the players behind some of my key picks. While there are a ton of amazing prospects to keep an eye on from a draft perspective, these are the ones that I think could drive their teams to strong runs in the tournament.
Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
You could also put Corey Kispert or Drew Timme in this spot, but I'm going with the most talented player on the hands-on favorite to win it all. The freshman lead guard has shown poise beyond his years and made impressive plays on both ends since the start of the season. In only 28 minutes per game, Suggs averaged 14.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.0 steals with a strong 51.2%/35.4%/73.9% shooting line. Although he hit a bit of a lull during conference play that saw his deep ball shooting drop to 25%, he rose to the occasion during the WCC tournament to make 5 of 10 over two games. That includes 23 points in the tournament final, when the former high school quarterback also made great reads on defense to disrupt BYU and put the game away. Strong guard play led by this likely top-5 pick is why I am picking the Bulldogs to take the title and complete the first undefeated season in 45 years.
Scottie Barnes, Florida State
I feel like Florida State could either make the Final Four or get upset in their first game with a lot of turnovers if Isaiah Miller wreaks havoc for UNC Greensboro. I ended up going with the former due in part to Barnes, who has shown time and again to be a winning player with Gold medals for Team USA at the U16, U17, and U19 levels between 2017 and 2019. Interestingly, the 6'9", 227 lb forward has converted to point guard in a sixth man role as a freshman, leading the team with 4.2 assists per game in just 24.9 minutes. Defense across multiple positions is probably his main calling card, and good things seem to happen for the Seminoles whenever he checks into the game. Ever since ESPN's Kevin Pelton described him as a mix of Ben Simmons and Kyle Anderson, I haven't been able to get that out of my head, and I'm counting on the likely lottery pick's feel for the game to lead a long, tough 4 seed to the last weekend.
Evan Mobley, USC
Maybe I'm relying too much on draft prospects, but USC is actually an underrated team as a 6 seed. KenPom.com even has them a #14 in their rankings, higher than 3rd seeded Kansas (#22) that they'll probably face in their second game. Defeating 2 seed Iowa to make the Elite Eight like I've picked might be asking too much, but if any big man can give Wooden Award candidate Luka Garza trouble, it's Mobley. The #1 pick contender joined Anthony Davis as the only Power 5 athlete to be named his conference's Freshman of the Year, Player of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year, and he's peaking at the right time with 5 blocks and his career high of 26 points in both of his conference tournament games. I'm a little worried that the Trojans won't have enough offense around him to make this sort of sustained run, but their defense, led by Mobley, is top-notch.
James Bouknight, UConn
In case you couldn't tell, my sleeper picks to make surprising runs tend to be teams that are underseeded based on KenPom rankings and have NBA prospects. As the 16th best team that's just a 7th seed, UConn certainly qualifies with Bouknight, a potential top-10 pick. I honestly considered them over Florida State to make the Final Four, but since they already have a tough path with Maryland, Alabama, and Texas, I split the difference with an Elite Eight pick. It's all based around their electric guard who averaged 19 points to lead the team while the next highest was 12.3. Bouknight actually averaged 23.2 points on 48.1%/33.3%/80.6% shooting over his first five games before suffering an elbow injury and missing over five weeks. Overall, the Huskies were off to a 5-1 start with him and then finished 6-2 upon his return, so don't be surprised if Dan Hurley's squad pulls off multiple upsets.
JaQuori McLaughlin, UC Santa Barbara
Admittedly, I'm a bit biased for my alma mater being back in the Big Dance for the first time since I was a student, but the 5-12 upset is popular every year for a reason. In 35 years of having 64 teams in the tournament, there have only been an average of 2.51 5th seeded teams in the round of 32. For context, 4 seeds average 3.14 teams advancing and even 2.57 6th seeded teams make it, so 12 seeds are always ones to watch. Taking it further, there have been 22 times that a 12 seed made it to the Sweet Sixteen, which right up there with 23 of the 10 seeds and 21 of the 11 seeds. That brings us back to UCSB as my favorite pick of the double digit seeds to make it to the second weekend, and McLaughlin will likely be the reason why. The former top-100 recruit and Oregon State transfer was in total control of the Big West Tournament en route to MVP honors to go with his conference Player of the Year nod, and for the season averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 assists, and 1.6 steals with an efficient 48.9%/40.4%/84.2% shooting line and just 2 turnovers. The Gauchos are 22-4 thanks to only allowing 62.2 points per game, a top-20 mark in the country, so if McLaughlin carries the offense like he's shown he can, they'll be dangerous. It also helps that potential second opponent Virginia could get upset by Jason Preston and 13 seed Ohio after having a COVID disruption to their season. In any case, I'm ready to be chanting Olé!
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