It wasn't a banner week for me, but I'll take a positive result overall every time. This will be another interesting one with so many road favorites, so I'll try not to overthink things.
This week: 1-0
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 99-94
Road Favorites
Panthers -1.5 at Browns
Cleveland has played well at home but proved last week that they're still a young team that can implode. Now with some changes on the defensive coaching staff, Carolina will end their losing streak at some point, right? Right!?
Lions -2.5 at Cardinals
This is going to be such an ugly game with undermanned offenses. Detroit has at least had games where they look mediocre compared to Arizona being mostly terrible, so I'll take the more experienced quarterback despite being on the road.
Steelers -11.5 at Raiders
Although this is a lot of points on a road between historic rivals, it's a great bounce back spot for Pittsburgh to let out their frustrations after a couple close losses. With James Conner out, they'll likely air it out even more than usual, increasing the blowout potential.
Road Underdogs
Giants +1.5 at Redskins
This was the easiest pick of the week before Odell Beckham Jr. was surprisingly ruled out. Considering that it's going to be Mark Sanchez starting on the other side, it's still not a hard pick.
Colts +4.5 at Texans
It was an overtime thriller when these two teams met earlier in the year, and that narrow escape is what started Houston's remarkable nine game winning streak. It should be a close game again, and I think it'll be pretty fitting that the Colts are who end that streak after looking ahead to this game last week.
Vikings +3.5 at Seahawks
Minnesota has been a bad luck team for me both ways, especially, in prime time, but I like getting that extra half point in a tough game that might not have many points. There's been a lot of talk about getting Dalvin Cook more involved, and Seattle has been giving up big games to running backs of late.
Home Underdogs
Buccaneers +8.5 versus Saints
According to Hribar, 78.7% of the yards against New Orleans has come through the air, and 77.8% of Tampa's offense has been via the pass. And as I've been harping, the Bucs' defense isn't as terrible at home as they only allow 19.3 points compared to 39.8 on the road. New Orleans should pull out a win, but with their typical struggles outdoors, I'll take the points.
Dolphins +8.5 versus Patriots
New England has only won once in their past five visits to Miami, and as Hribar has pointed out all year, they're only averaging 21.7 points on the road compared to 33.5 at home. Furthermore, the Dolphins only allow 20.5 points at home compared to 29.5 on the road. Again, I'll take the points in a close divisional game.
49ers +5.5 versus Broncos
Losing both Chris Harris and Emmanuel Sanders is massive for Denver, so this line feels a touch high on the road. San Francisco is currently leading the Nick Bosa sweepstakes, but this might be a game that Kyle Shanahan is able to coach them up to end the losing streak. And as much as I'd like that guarantee of them being able to select that prized edge rusher #1, I've also been on the record of being on board with trading back a couple spots from where they're picking and nabbing Kentucky's Josh Allen.
Bears +3.5 versus Rams
LA ended up covering on the road last week, but playing in Chicago is a much more difficult challenge. I'm sure Sean McVay can scheme up enough plays to move the ball against this elite defense, but it should be a close game throughout, especially with Mitch Trubisky back instead of Chase Daniel.
Home Favorites
Bills -3.5 versus Jets
Early in the season I joked that Josh Allen scrambles are the best offense for Buffalo, but that's actually become effective in recent weeks. With Kelvin Benjamin no longer weighing them down, they should be able to keep up their improved play this week against a New York team that packed things in weeks ago.
Packers -5.5 versus Falcons
It's another inflated line in Green Bay, but it's hard to trust Atlanta when they've been in just as much of a free fall. This could be one of those times that a team comes out on fire under an interim coach after Mike McCarthy was finally put out to pasture. Here's hoping that the new regime won't continue going back to Jamaal Williams when this is such a prime matchup for Aaron Jones.
Chiefs -6.5 versus Ravens
Per Hribar, Kansas City has a +16.2 point differential in home games, the best in the league, and they only allow scores on 27.8% of opponents possessions at home compared to 53.2% on the road. Asking Lamar Jackson and this run-based offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes will likely be too tall an order.
Chargers -14.5 versus Bengals
I should've trusted my gut and taken LA with the points last week, and now they have a cake matchup against Jeff Driskel at home. I'm slightly worried that LA might have a let down after that big SNF win, but I'm pretty sure I'll be picking against Cincy the rest of the year.
Cowboys -4.5 versus Eagles
This is the game that got Dallas rolling a few weeks ago, and now they're at home against an even more banged up Phily secondary. With their own defense clicking well, I like them laying less than a full TD here.
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