Road Favorites
Redskins -1.5 at Giants
Another week, another divisional game with Washington a slight favorite that I don't have much confidence in either way. While it may be too simple to just look at New York trading away two defensive starters this week as a reason to pick against them, they were already an unimposing unit before becoming shorthanded. Odell Beckham Jr. can always change a game, of course, but it's not like you can trust Eli Manning to consistently get him the ball.
Colts -3.5 at Raiders
On the one hand, Indy's dominant performance last week should be taken with a grain of salt since it was against Buffalo, but on the other, they get to face another one of the worst teams in the league this week. Now without both Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper, the Oakland offense that was already sputtering isn't likely to match points with a Colts team that is hitting its stride with a young offensive line coming together in front of Andrew Luck.
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| Marlon Mack suddenly has some running room for his big play ability. |
Everyone knows that Rob Gronkowski dominates in his hometown, but if you want the full numbers, Rich Hribar has him with averages are 6.3 catches for 104.3 yards and a touchdown per game. The only real worry is that New England takes their foot off the gas with a big lead, especially since promising rookie Sony Michel likely won't be available to help bleed the clock. There's just no way I can take Derek Anderson against the Patriots, though.
Road Underdogs
Jaguars +2.5 versus Eagles (in London)
Jacksonville is technically the home team, but the game is on a neutral field in London, where Blake Bortles has eight touchdowns to just two interceptions in four career games there. Hribar also notes Philly has not been able to run the ball effectively, and Jacksonville is still defending the pass well, making this an enticing matchup for the underdogs.
Packers +9.5 at Rams
Although LA is likely to win, Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog for a reason. Green Bay should also be healthier coming out of their bye week, so trading points is definitely in play here. Just how well their run defense can contain Todd Gurley will determine whether or not this might get away from them, and they can be solid in that area.
49ers +1.5 at Cardinals
The team LA did pull away from last week remains my Kryptonite each week, but this starts a nice stretch of San Francisco's schedule against their fellow one-win teams the next three weeks. They really should've beaten Arizona three weeks ago if not for the late turnovers, and while those are still an issue, there should be some positive regression to the mean in that category at some point. As a David Johnson fan, I hope that new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will feed him in more creative ways like Bruce Arians used to do, but it still might take a couple of weeks for a rookie playcaller to turn things around.
Saints +1.5 at Vikings
No surprise here, but this SNF matchup between two elite teams was the hardest pick of the week. Latavius Murray has filled in admirably, but New Orleans' suddenly stout run defense could make Dalvin Cook's absence felt since he can create more on his own. With Mike Hughes already on the shelf, Xavier Rhodes possibly being out would have the biggest impact against Drew Brees. Give me the point and a half here.
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| Michael Thomas stands to find the end zone again if Rhodes is out. |
Panthers +1.5 versus Ravens
Carolina being a home 'dog was one of the more surprising lines of the week to me, especially considering how both of their games ended last week. It actually makes me a little wary that Vegas has Baltimore favored on the road here, but I'm sticking with my guns that in a pretty even matchup, the Panthers should win at home.
Home Favorites
Texans -7.5 versus Dolphins
This pick had me slightly nervous for a while, but Miami continued their Thursday night woes as Houston's talent shone through in the end.
Lions -3.5 versus Seahawks
Another one that I'm a little worried about since this is more than a field goal, but Detroit has been playing well and has the weapons to take advantage of the holes in Seattle's defense. It's unclear how ready Damon Harrison will be after being traded this week, but he should help settle the Lions' run defense against the Seahawks' run heavy attack.
Bengals -4.5 versus Buccaneers
Andy Dalton predictably struggled in prime time, but he gets yet another juicy matchup this week with Tampa's "defense" coming to town. Cincy's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down themselves, so this could end up being another shootout. I trust the more balanced offense, especially at home.
Bears -7.5 versus Jets
This seems like a lot of points to lay with a defense that is suddenly getting gashed, but Chicago is at home against a rookie quarterback with a banged up skill position group. And if Mitchell Trubisky can continue putting up points like he has been, they can be a dangerous team in the playoff hunt.
Steelers -8.5 versus Browns
Cleveland has lost 14 straight times in Pittsburgh, and they have taken 14 more sacks than they've recorded compared to the Steelers having a +15 differential, per Hribar. That's #notgood. Coming out of their bye week, I expect "Blitzburgh" to continue these trends.
Chiefs -10.5 versus Broncos
Kansas City didn't cover the -4.5 in Week 4 by half a point in my CBS Sports pool, but they technically did in Vegas since the line shifted to -3.5 by game time, which means that Hribar's note from that week about their winning streak with covers is now up to six straight. And Pat Mahomes II has only gotten better since that matchup that was on the road.
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