Another week, another bad record for me. It's funny because when I guess what the spreads are going to be before they come out, I'm pretty accurate, so I fall into a false sense of security picking favorites to win by those amounts. The thing is, though, that so far this season the favorites (at least according to the lines in my CBS Sports pool) are only 44-49 against the spread, and I've especially been suffering from teams winning without covering recently. Thus, I'm changing things up this week by categorizing each of my picks so that I'll realize when I'm leaning a bit too far towards just the favorites. So without further ado, here are this week's picks to turn things around, with the usual assist from Rich Hribar's Worksheet on Rotoworld for some statistical nuggets.
Road Favorites
Broncos -2.5 at Cardinals
On the one hand, I'm stoked that I got this pick right and got 37 fantasy points from Denver's defense, but on the other, I'm kicking myself for switching to a different streamer in my main league...https://twitter.com/SF_DavidGio/status/1053084964055437312
Vikings -3.5 at Jets
These aren't directly related, but per Hribar, Vikings have the best third down defense in the league, and the Jets are the worst at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Those are signs of an elite defense and a not so great offense, and conversely, New York struggles covering the slot. I'm willing to bet that will continue given just how hot Adam Thielen has been to start the season.
Patriots -3.5 at Bears
I don't want to overreact to Chicago blowing last week's game with two long run after catch touchdowns for Albert Wilson before stupidly playing for a field goal that would be over 50 yards in OT, but it didn't inspire enough confidence to take the points here. New England's offense is finding its stride with Julian Edelman back and Josh Gordon more involved, so they should be able to cover more than a field goal, even on the road.
Lions -1.5 at Dolphins
Speaking of Wilson's long scores, these big play touchdowns can't be counted on each week, especially with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. And if Miami's defense cracks like it did against Trubisky, than Matthew Stafford and this receiving core should expose it.
Road Underdogs
Titans +6.5 versus Chargers (in London)
Tennessee looked dreadful with Marcus Mariota taking an astounding 11 sacks while LA looked even better than I expected to take care of business on the road last week. So of course, we're probably in for something wacky across the pond in this matchup. I'm holding my nose and taking the points because the Titans are too talented to play that poorly in back to back games.
Texans +4.5 at Jaguars
Maybe I'm just bitter over just how badly Jacksonville played, or maybe I'm just weirdly confident that Houston will start covering if they could ever fix their red zone offense. These teams feel relatively evenly matched, though, so even on the road, I like the better quarterback with the points.
Browns +3.5 at Buccaneeers
As evidence of how poorly Tampa's defense has played, every one of their games has hit the over, and they are allowing the most offensive touchdowns per game in the league, per Hribar. Cleveland's defense has also taken some hits, but Baker Mayfield is due for a big game after being plagued by some drops from his receivers. I'd lean towards Tampa pulling this out in the end, but I can't trust that defense to lay the points.
Home Underdogs
49ers +10.5 versus Rams
This is the third straight game that LA has been favored by more than a touchdown on the road, and they haven't covered in the first two. Meanwhile, I've gotten the pick wrong for my beloved Niners every week, but I like them here at home in a divisional game that was supposed to be in prime time for the unveiling of the statue for The Catch. Being pissed off about being flexed out worked on Monday, so hopefully that keeps up in their sweet '94 throwbacks.
Home Favorites
Eagles -4.5 versus Panthers
Carson Wentz is looking all the way back now, and that's bad news for a Carolina defense that hasn't been looking in top form of late. Turnovers have been hurting them, and that might doom them again here in a hostile environment.
Colts -7.5 versus Bills
Taking Indy on the road with all of their injuries was a dumb pick by me, but now they're seemingly getting healthier and are at home with Derek Anderson coming to town just a couple of weeks after being signed. That's much more appealing.
Ravens -2.5 versus Saints
New Orleans' offense facing Baltimore's defense will be fun to watch, but with this being an outdoors game, I have a feeling that the Saints will falter a bit, even with a bye week to prepare. And even if the Ravens might give up a second half score for the first time all season, Joe Flacco and John Brown have a good chance of connecting on one of their deep balls in this matchup.
Redskins -1.5 versus Cowboys
I don't feel confident picking games for either of these teams, so give me the home team and let me be done with it. Dallas seems to be a different team on the road, and Washington has had two nice wins over Green Bay and Carolina at home after that stunning disaster against Indy early.
Chiefs -6.5 versus Bengals
I was all ready to take the points with Cincinnati in what should be an exciting game until I read Hribar's note that they are 1-16 (and 3-13-2 against the spread) under Marvin Lewis in road prime time games. It just doesn't seem possible to keep Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense down for long with all of their weapons, so if they don't hurt themselves with turnovers like they did on the road last week, they should cover this touchdown spread.
Falcons -6.5 versus Giants
I don't love laying this many points with Atlanta's shorthanded defense, but their offense should thrive at home against New York. Janoris Jenkins hasn't played up to his standards, so Julio Jones should be in line for another big day that may or may not include his first touchdown. I mean, the man is on pace for 1,888 yards, so he has to eventually find the end zone, right? RIGHT?!
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