Now that was more like it. As I somewhat joked would happen, my picks were 10-2 during the main Sunday slate after the Thursday night loss. Some of this week's spreads were a bit off from what I expected, but here's hoping for another big week to get me back over .500.
Patriots -10.5 versus Colts
I got off to a good start again despite a bit of a scare in the second with those "interceptions" that counted against Tom Brady after the ball popped out of his receivers' hands. Now comes the hard part with the rest of the games...
Titans -3.5 at Bills
Although Tennessee is on the road here, I thought that this line would be higher, and sure enough, it's move up to -5.5 in most places. The CBS Sports pick 'em doesn't change, though, so this is an easy choice for a Titans team that's on a roll. Their pass rush, reinvigorated by 2nd round steal Harold Landry, should feast on Josh Allen.
Panthers -7.5 versus Giants
I was hoping that this would be under a touchdown, but it's understandably high with Carolina at home after a bye week. New York did a better job of protecting Eli Manning last week and still couldn't get much going offensively at home, so going on the road against this stout defense will be a challenge. Safety Eric Reid will be someone to keep an eye on as he's starting a week after finally getting signed, showing that he's good enough to have been scooped up long ago.
Bengals -6.5 versus Dolphins
Cincinnati showed their talent and grit in that dramatic comeback in Atlanta while Miami looked dreadful in New England. My pick isn't just overreacting to one week, though, as this is reflective of their respective rosters like I've been picking in their games all year. Andy Dalton shouldn't face much resistance in continuing his hot start.
Chiefs -3.5 versus Jaguars
Taking the points with Jacksonville is tempting here since their elite defense matches up well with Kansas City's high powered offense, but I just don't trust Blake Bortles on the road. The Chiefs badly need Eric Berry back to shore up the secondary, but in this game, Justin Houston's pressure could result in enough stops for Pat Mahomes to take care of the rest.
Falcons +3.5 at Steelers
Now here's a case where I'm perfectly happy to take the +3.5 in a battle of two evenly matched teams with both defenses struggling mightily. Pittsburgh's usual home field advantage just hasn't been there with their inability to get stops since Ryan Shazier's injury last year, so Matt Ryan should keep putting up points with Julio Jones bound to find the end zone eventually.
Broncos +1.5 at Jets
I know Denver has struggled in these early road games, but I was shocked to see New York favored given their recent form. Things won't get any easier for Sam Darnold against Von Miller, Chris Harris, and the rest of this defense, so Case Keenum just needs to take care of the ball more like last season to give his team a chance.
Packers -1.5 at Lions
While Green Bay's hobbled receiving core is a concern, so is Detroit's defense by and large. They should've closed out that game in Dallas, and now they get Aaron Rodgers as he's getting healthier. Green Bay's defense looked better last week, albeit against Buffalo, and lost among the terrible roughing the passer calls against Clay Matthews is the fact that he's been getting better pressure than in recent years to draw those flags.
Ravens -3.5 at Browns
Baltimore proved on Sunday Night that they can take care of business on the road, and now they're getting Jimmy Smith back from suspension to make their strong secondary even better. Baker Mayfield had his share of ups and downs in his first start, but this will be a much more difficult challenge.
Chargers -5.5 versus Raiders
The worry here is that this will basically be a road game for L.A. due to Oakland's consistent fan base in Southern California, but the Raiders defense isn't nearly good enough for me to take them on the road. Although the Chargers defense has been disappointing, as well, they at least have stars in Casey Hayward and Derwin James to match up with Amari Cooper and Jared Cook.
Rams -7.5 at Seahawks
This is a lot of points in a tough place to play, but L.A. likes to pour on the points when they're ahead. With Earl Thomas now out for the year and K.J. Wright still out, Bobby Wagner is just about the last man standing on Seattle's defense, so the points should continue to flow for the Rams.
49ers -4.5 versus Cardinals
I didn't expect San Francisco to be laying this many points at all this season after Jimmy Garoppolo went down, especially with their disappointing defense, but they are getting a rookie quarterback in his first career road start. Despite Josh Rosen injecting some life into Arizona's offense, I can't trust a team as bad as them.
Vikings +3.5 at Eagles
I probably shouldn't trust Minnesota on the road, either, but coming off the long week, I believe in Mike Zimmer's coaching ability. Both defenses are struggling relative to their talent, so this could end up being a higher scoring affair than expected. I'll take the points in a fun matchup between good teams.
Texans -3.5 versus Cowboys
Despite 1st round pick Leighton Vander Esch filling in well, I still can't trust the Dallas defense without Sean Lee, especially on the road. Houston's defense has had its ups and downs, as well, but their offense is just on another level in the passing game. Passing wins games, so give me Deshaun Watson over Dak Prescott.
Saints -6.5 versus Redskins
Washington may be coming off a bye, but this is such a tough spot for them on the road in prime time for a game where Drew Brees will mostly likely set the record for most passing yards in NFL history. New Orleans' defense is vulnerable, but I don't think Alex Smith can keep up with Brees.
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