Vikings +6.5 at Rams
This pick isn't the start I was looking for, but then again, I won the last two Thursday games before terrible Sundays. The optimistic view would suggest that Minnesota's stunning collapse means I'm due for a big weekend. Law of averages, or something like that.
Bengals +5.5 at Falcons
Atlanta's offense is rolling now after that disappointing opener, but their defense keeps taking hits with free safety Ricardo Allen now out for the year, as well. Cincy moved the ball well even without Joe Mixon last week and is sure to put up points, and I think their defense is strong enough to win this game on the road.
Jaguars -7.5 versus Jets
Both teams lost tough games last week, but Jacksonville seems to actually be getting Leonard Fournette back now to stabilize the offense. And this elite defense getting a turnover-prone rookie QB at home could cover this spread by themselves.
Lions +3.5 at Cowboys
I'm guilty of overrating the impact of injuries to individual players sometimes, but there's no denying that the Dallas defense is vastly different unit when Sean Lee misses time. With Detroit's offense clicking on all cylinders the last game and a half, I think they should've been favored even on the road in this spot.
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| Detroit needs to keep calm and use Kerryon. He's clearly their best 'back. |
Titans +3.5 versus Eagles
It turns out that Tennessee is the team I thought they were when I picked them in Week 1 only for them to lose that odd game in Miami with the weather delays and injuries to Marcus Mariota. He's still not 100%, but neither are Carson Wentz or the Philly running backs just yet, either. Give me the home team getting points.
Packers -10.5 versus Bills
I was almost as surprised by this line as I was by both of these teams' performances last week, but based on just talent, it's probably right. Let's see how Josh Allen does on the road when the game script isn't so heavily tilted in his favor. Conversely, if this game goes as expected, Aaron Jones could take hold of this Green Bay backfield as their best pure runner after being worked in last week after his suspension.
Colts -1.5 versus Texans
It's kind of hard to believe that Houston is in serious danger of going 0-4, but with the way both of these teams are playing, that's the way it's looking. Their deficiencies along the offensive line are proving even more costly than expected, and with their secondary depth being test, winning on the road is a tall order. Indy's offensive line is no thing of beauty either with their injuries, but the flip side of Andrew Luck's well documented short passing game this season is that he can get the ball out quickly to beat the rush.
Patriots -7.5 versus Dolphins
Like the spread in Green Bay, this is stunningly high based on how these teams have been performing...until you realize that Miami has lost nine straight in New England by an average of 18.2, per Rich Hribar. Rex Burkhead landing on IR is a tough blow, but I believe in Sony Michel's ability to be a starting running back the further removed he gets from that knee surgery he underwent before the season. And while picking against the 'Phins has cost me so far this year, they've been a bit lucky with all three wins coming by eight points or less.
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| I'm not anointing Josh Gordon the savior of their season, but he can at least provide a deep threat to open things up. |
That wasn't exactly an inspiring performance by Mitchell Trubisky, but Khalil Mack simply can't be stopped, forcing a fumble in each of their three games so far. Meanwhile. Ryan Fitzpatrick started experiencing regression to the mean as he returned to his turnover ways under the spotlight of MNF, and I wouldn't be surprised if that continues on the road in this game.
Raiders -2.5 versus Browns
At some point Oakland has to be able to close out a game, right? That might prove difficult with how good Baker Mayfield looked in his debut, but he's still a rookie quarterback on the road for his first career start. The fact that the Raiders haven't trailed at all going into the 4th quarter of each game shows that they are capable of playing well, and I'm sure the home crowd will be fired up against their former coach, Hue Jackson.
Seahawks -2.5 at Cardinals
Josh Rosen is also making his first career start this week, and while the Seattle defense isn't what it once was, it's no pushover. Maybe he can bring some life to this listless offense, especially since they finally started getting David Johnson going downfield more like he's done under the previous regime, but with the spread under a field goal, I have no problem taking the better team.
Chargers -10.5 versus 49ers
"Why didn't Jimmy Garoppolo go out of bounds?" is the question that will haunt San Francisco's season because when you have a quarterback like him, no game feels out of reach. To that point, they were making quite the comeback in Kansas City last week when he tore his ACL before the dime that C.J. Beathard threw to make it a 7 point game was erroneously flagged for OPI. The glass half full view is that maybe Beathard will play well enough in his second year to generate some trade value, the injury happened early enough that Garoppolo should be good to go before next season starts, and they could end up with a high draft pick to address their edge rusher situation with someone like Nick Bosa. His brother Joey being out makes LA's defense less imposing, but they are still strong enough to cover in this home game, especially with Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen likely to have a field day against a secondary missing Richard Sherman and Jaquiski Tartt.
Saints -3.5 at Giants
New York's impressive road win last week makes this a little more interesting, but their defense going against Houston's offensive line compared to New Orleans' is a big 180. And while the Saints' disappointing defense isn't likely to slow down Louisiana native Odell Beckham Jr., it's still hard to see the Giants putting up enough points to keep up with the Saints.
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| Michael Thomas can't be stopped: he's caught 38 of 40 targets through 3 games. |
Ben Roethlisberger continues to light up defenses under the lights of prime time with his myriad of weapons, so this could turn into an underrated shootout. I'm banking on Pittsburgh's shaky defense playing better at home, but if Baltimore continues where it left off after last week's strong finish, they could be the division favorites.
Chiefs 4.5 at Broncos
Another excellent note from Hribar is that Kansas City has beaten Denver and covered in five consecutive games, and I'll never forget that Pat Mahomes' first start came against these Broncos with other Chiefs backups in a meaningless Week 17 game that ended up costing me my picks pool. I'm not making that mistake again: Mahomes is the real deal and will probably make Case Keenum look like he's playing a different sport.
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