Falcons +3.5 at Eagles
The defending Super Bowl champs may end up being the favorites to repeat as NFC champions in the long run, but Carson Wentz isn't back from his torn ACL yet and top receiver Alshon Jeffery will miss the beginning of the season due to shoulder surgery. Nick Foles' magical hot streak from the playoffs won't continue, so I like Atlanta to avenge their playoff loss to kick off the season.
Steelers -5.5 at Browns
I know, I know: Le'Veon Bell still hasn't reported to the team, and the upstart Browns looked like a new team with all of their changes on display on Hard Knocks. -5.5 seems like a lot of points to lay on the road, especially with with a rookie offensive coordinator to boot, but guess what? Hue Jackson is still the Cleveland head coach with Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger shouldn't have an issue shredding the Browns, whom he is 22-2 against in his career.
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| Expect Big Ben to receive another congratulatory handshake. |
Ryan Tannehill will be making his first start since December 11, 2016 against a team that made it to the Divisional Round last season and added new pieces on defense like Malcolm Butler, Rashaan Evans, and Kenny Vaccaro. Tennessee's offense also stands to improve with coach Mike Mularkey gone and intriguing new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur calling the shots now. After a bit of disappointing year, I say that Marcus Mariota takes the next step this season, and it starts against Miami's unimposing defense.
Ravens -6.5 vs Bills
I would probably take Baltimore no matter how high this line was. Their veteran defense is at home against the guy who threw 5 interceptions on just 14 attempts in the first half of this first start last year. And Nathan Peterman now has less talent around him on what I think will be the worst team in the league. Their secondary is strong, but that's about it, which leaves me confident in this spot.
Patriots -6.5 vs Texans
This -6.5, on the other hand, scares me a bit since Houston has the potential to be really good if everything comes together. Their offensive line and of course the health of their stars coming back from injury will determine how far they can go, but on the road for the first game against the perennial Super Bowl contending Patritos, there will likely be a feeling out period.
Jaguars -3.5 at Giants
Although this line is exactly what I guessed it would be, it still feels dangerous. Jacksonville should be able to win handily with their elite defense and strong running game that was fortified with the signing of guard Andrew Norwell, but taking Blake Bortles on the road is always a risky proposition. New York missing Olivier Vernon this week helps matters, though, and even if the Jags' defense experiences some regression to the mean this year, especially health-wise and with the losses of Aaron Colvin and Paul Posluzny, it should still be able to take care of business against Eli Manning.
49ers +5.5 at Vikings
I'd feel better about this had big free agent signing Jerick McKinnon, whom I was excited to see in Kyle Shanahan's offense and was a cheap keeper for me in fantasy, not torn his ACL last week. He was the perfect fit as an athletic running back who excels in the passing game, so while Matt Breida Alfred Morris can fill in fine as rushers, games like this against stout defenses will put a lot on the shoulders of Jimmy Garoppolo to create plays downfield. Playing on the road against a Super Bowl caliber team will be the toughest test yet for the undefeated starter who averaged over 308 yards in his five starts after last year's midseason trade, but he does have the benefit of a full offseason in the system and a stronger supporting cast with Pierre Garcon, Weston Richburg, Mike McGlinchey, Dante Pettis, and Richie James now in the mix. Minnesota, on the other hand, has an upgrade at quarterback with Kirk Cousins, but he may need a couple of games to get acclimated to his new team, especially with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo also being new and questions along the offensive line. Give me the points in what could be a close game or even an outright upset.
Saints -9.5 vs Buccaneers
Like with Baltimore, it's hard to imagine a line that would prevent me from taking the stacked Saints at home against the Bucs with Jameis Winston suspended. Granted, Tampa Bay did make some nice moves to improve their defensive weaknesses like adding Jason Pierre-Paul, Vinny Curry, and Vita Vea on the defensive line, but that isn't likely to be enough to shut down the dynamic New Orleans offense, even with Mark Ingram also suspended. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas would not be denied in the passing game in both matchups last year, and even if that doesn't continue to the same extent, Ryan Fitzpatrick could very well win it for the Saints himself. No, that wasn't a typo about the backup quarterback who plays for the Buccaneers.
Bengals +2.5 at Colts
And here is the winner for the most baffling line of the week to me. Look, I'm as excited as anyone that Andrew Luck is back on the field, but that doesn't change the fact that he missed all of last season and is on a team with a ton of holes and a rookie coaching staff. Meanwhile, Cincinnati disappointed and still won three more games than Indianapolis last season. I don't see Luck being able to make up for the rest of the roster like he usually does just yet, especially with a still questionable offensive line trying to block Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, and Carl Lawson.
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| I'm expecting at least one score for A.J. Green against this Indy secondary. |
I've gone back and forth on this pick because LA clearly has the more talented roster, but they always get off to slow starts, usually of the self-inflicted variety. And everyone knows how good Andy Reid teams do when they have extra time to prepare, further complicating the matters. Defensive stars Eric Berry and Joey Bosa will likely sit out on both sides, so this could turn into a shootout. Thus, I'll take the points for my pick even if I think the Chargers pull out the W in the end.
Panthers -2.5 vs Cowboys
Both teams have health concerns along the offensive line, but Carolina has been stocking up on impressive skill position players to go along with their consistently strong defense. And while both teams have rookie wide receivers to watch, I'm going with Cam Newton at home since he's shown he can overcome shaky blocking much better than Dak Prescott.
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| I have a feeling Luke Kuechly will have his fingerprints all over this one. |
I wasn't quite sure what to expect with this line, so a pick 'em makes some sense. Arizona could be a sleeper team or a contender for the #1 pick with a rookie head coach and potentially a rookie quarterback if/when Sam Bradford goes down. And while I think Washington should win this convincingly, they are traveling across the country and have a new quarterback in Alex Smith. I'm sticking with the more complete team, though, and if David Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald leads an upset, so be it.
Broncos -2.5 vs Seahawks
Could this really be the end of Seattle's run? Both coordinators are gone along with defensive mainstays Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Kam Chancellor, and the lone remaining member of the Legion of Boom, Earl Thomas, is disgruntled in the last year of his contract. Conversely, Denver is poised for a turnaround if free agent signing Case Keenum can just provide competent quarterback play compared to what they've experienced in recent years. Their defense may not be as elite as it used to be, either, but there's still some continuity there to go along with the Mile High home field advantage.
Packers -8.5 vs Bears
I don't feel great about laying this many points, especially in the wake of Chicago's stunning Khalil Mack trade, but I have a feeling that Green Bay will come out hot for their 100th anniversary, with Aaron Rodgers particularly anxious to get going after his injury plagued season. This is especially tough since I am excited to see if Mitchell Trubisky can take a Jared Goff-like leap with similar upgrades in coaching and weapons now that he has Matt Nagy, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and Trey Burton around him. However, the Packers are my pick to win the Super Bowl after they added Muhammad Wilkerson, Jaire Alexander, and Josh Jackson on defense; they just need some better injury luck with Rodgers and the guys protecting him.
Lions -6.5 vs Jets
This line is a little ambitious for rookie head coach Matt Patricia, but Detroit is at home against a rookie quarterback who was turnover prone in college. Although Sam Darnold impressed in the preseason, he's still making his NFL debut and isn't likely to make up for the rest of the holes on New York's roster. I don't expect their pass rush to disrupt Matthew Stafford much.
Rams -2.5 at Raiders
Speaking of a lack of a pass rush, Oakland's second Jon Gruden era isn't off to the best start after trading away their best player due to what appears to be a lack of cash flow. Trying to stop LA's high flying offense won't get any easier without Mack, and the offense won't have a much easier time after the Rams added defensive stars around Aaron Donald, whom they were able to extend in contrast to the Raiders. And then there's this nugget from Josh Dubow: seven of the last eight Raiders coaches lost their first games after getting hired.
Last season: 151-115-1
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