Browns -3.5 versus Jets
Thank goodness for fantasy and football picks pool to make this typical TNF game interesting. I picked Cleveland to get in the W at -3.5 but don’t feel good about it of course 🙈— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) September 21, 2018
Well that was quite the roller coaster, but I'll take another 1-0 start to the week.
49ers +6.5 at Chiefs
I know San Francisco didn't cover again and that I'm probably being a homer, but they were in control of that game before things went off the rails late. Now they get difference-making linebacker Reuben Foster back from suspension while Kansas City's shoddy secondary is still without Eric Berry. I'd feel more comfortable if this was over a touchdown, but I'll take the points in what will be a shootout.
Broncos +5.5 at Ravens
Baltimore is exactly the kind of team that is hard to judge since they beat up on the hapless Bills before a really uneven loss to the Bengals, so I can't feel comfortable laying this many points with them. I do think they'll probably win, but Denver will by no means be a pushover after their 2-0 start. I can almost see Von Miller's pressure forcing a Joe Flacco interception now.
Texans -5.5 versus Giants
I can't believe that Houston didn't win that game against Blaine Gabbert, but now they finally have their home opener with what appears to be one of the worst teams coming to town. Olivier Vernon's continued absence has killed New York's pass rush, so they likely won't be able to take advantage of Houston's biggest flaw. Odell Beckham Jr. might have a field day against a beat up secondary, but he has to make up for so much with this team.
Raiders +3.5 at Dolphins
West Coast teams going across the country for 10 AM starts are always behind the eight ball, but I just have a gut feeling that Oakland won't start 0-3 and Miami 3-0. The 'Phins still aren't inspiring a ton of confidence (look at how bad the Jets team they just beat looked on TNF), and the Raiders were pretty unfortunate to end up holding an L last week. Consider this a bet on better talent at least covering.
Packers -2.5 at Redskins
Turns out that I was overrating Washington and underrating just how bad Arizona is, so there's no way I'm taking them against Green Bay, even at home. The Pack should be 2-0, albeit with narrow wins, if not for that that terrible roughing the passer call that everyone has (rightfully) harped on this week, and this being under a field goal feels like the best bet of the week. Aaron Rodgers being far from 100% is still a concern, but on the bright side, he's another week removed from when he sustained the injury.
Panthers -3.5 versus Bengals
I was really hoping that this would be -2.5 instead, but I'm still rocking with the home team in one of the most intriguing matchups of the week. The fact that Joe Mixon unfortunately needed a knee scope helped me settle on this pick because Andy Dalton had a tale of two halves last week. Hopefully Carolina gets their first round pick D.J. Moore involved after he made his impact felt with a TD on his first career catch last week.
Colts +6.5 at Eagles
Maybe I'm overreacting to Indy's road win last week, but hear me out here. While Carson Wentz is obviously a huge upgrade on Nick Foles, he's also going to be seeing his first game action since tearing his ACL on December 10th, and running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles are likely out. The Colts defense has performed better than I gave them credit for, so that rust could play a factor and result in a sneaky outcome here.
Titans +6.5 at Jaguars
Like I said with Houston, I don't know how Tennessee won that game aside from the awesome fake punt from Kevin Byard, but I wish I had stayed with my pick rather than a late switch with the news that Blaine Gabbert was starting. The quarterback who replaced him there, Blake Bortles, looked good with Nathaniel Hackett opening up the playbook, but that might mean he's due for regression against a more capable defense that looked more impressive now that one of my favorite rookies, Harold Landry, got on the field. Here's hoping Marcus Mariota is back under center because I'm taking the points.
Falcons -3.5 versus Saints
It might be time to start worrying about New Orleans after two disappointing performances to start the year. Maybe the offense will begin to fire on all cylinders once Mark Ingram is back from suspension, but for now, I'm taking the home side. Atlanta was impressive in the way they came firing back and held on against Carolina despite all the missing pieces on defense, and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat without Devonta Freeman. Expect Tevin Coleman to continue to build his free agency resume in this one.
Vikings -16.5 versus Bills
Hmm, one of the best teams in the league are at home against the worst, so I won't waste much time here. I made the mistake of taking the large spread with Arizona last week and forgot that you can't simply take the points unless you think the team actually has a chance to win. I don't.
Chargers +7.5 at Rams
Speaking of the Bills and big spreads, their opponents last week took care of business on the road, so I'm shocked that the Chargers are such large underdogs here. The battle of LA should be a close game with the matchup of Keenan Allen in the slot potentially being the biggest mismatch among all the stars on the field. I'd feel better about them actually outright if Joey Bosa wasn't still out, but they should be able to cover.
Seahawks -2.5 versus Cowboys
This might be a shocker after the way both teams performed in prime time last week, but Seattle finally playing at home does make a big difference for them. Getting Bobby Wagner back healthy will help, as well, and with the Dallas offense remaining so lackluster, I'm comfortable picking the Seahawks for their first W. The Cowboys' defensive line is a bit intimidating here, but Russell Wilson is just a bit more mobile than Eli Manning.
Bears -5.5 at Cardinals
Whew, if there's a contender with the Bills for worst team in the league, it's Arizona. I already talked about my mistake picking them for the points in a game I don't think that they can win, and I won't be doing that again. Expect Khalil Mack to have another field day on Sam Bradford.
Patriots -6.5 at Lions
New England knows all about Matt Patricia's disappointing defensive schemes, and this is a nice bounce back spot for them after their comeback fell short last week. Matthew Stafford will likely put up numbers of his own through the air, but Detroit's defense looks vulnerable at all levels.
Steelers -1.5 at Buccaneers
I'll be honest, I thought that Tampa Bay would be the ones favored by 1.5, but I was going to be picking Pittsburgh no matter what. As amazing as Ryan Fitzpatrick's start of the season has been, the magic is bound to run out sooner or later, and last week's performance might've been the wake-up call the Steelers should've had after Week 1. Furthermore, I'm counting on the Bucs' inability to run the ball or get consistent stops costing them here.
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