Last week: 9-7
Bengals +0.5 versus Ravens
It’s hard to get a proper read on just how good Baltimore really is after beating up on the worst team in the league at home while Cincy had fits and starts before taking care of business on the road. Joe Mixon looked more like the dynamic 2nd round prospect that was expected last year, and if he produces like that consistently, the Bengals could be an underrated good team. I’m buying in this week at least since they’re at home and the Ravens are still difficult to trust.
Titans +4.5 versus Texans
This is of course contingent on the news that Marcus Mariota will play because it’s a tough call as it is. Give me the home ‘dogs, though, because Houston’s offensive line lost starting right tackle Seantrel Henderson for the season and looked as shaky as expected. Deshaun Watson dominated this game last year, but he started experiencing some of that regression to be mean that was bound to come in Week 1.
Steelers -5.5 versus Chiefs
I was shocked when I saw this line after how these teams performed in their season openers, and yet here I am, still laying the points. Pittsburgh has owned this matchup the last few years and are back at Heinz Field, where they are seemingly a completely different team. Kansas City is likely to be without Eric Berry again, so despite how impressive Pat Mahomes and the offense looked, I have a hard time seeing them get enough stops.
Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers
The fact that Tampa Bay's defense is in shambles was somewhat overlooked in their wild upset in New Orleans last week, and I don't believe in them as a sleeper team as a result. Philadelphia's defense will be a much more difficult challenge for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and I expect him to turn back into a pumpkin soon enough.
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| Fletcher Cox and the defense showed that they can win even without Nick Foles going crazy. |
Chargers -7.5 at Bills
I don't mean to go all #asexpected, but the performances by Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen were so predictable, and now they face the team that Peterman had his infamous start against last year. The game is in Buffalo this time, but I have no reason to believe that Allen or their defense will do much better than last week's dreadful showing.
Panthers +5.5 at Falcons
Carolina losing Greg Olsen and continuing to deal with injuries along an already shaky offensive line is a concern, but so is the fact that Atlanta is without Deion Jones and Keanu Neal on defense and Devonta Freeman on offense. I'm looking for Norv Turner to dial up a lot of quick passes to Christian McCaffrey to compensate, especially running back receptions being a weakness in the Falcons defense. I think Atlanta will end up winning with the 10 days rest, but since it should be a close division battle that either team could pull out, I'm taking the points.
Saints -8.5 versus Browns
I noted it for the Chargers, but I should’ve known that New Orleans' tendency to get off to poor starts would cost them. That being said, I still can’t take Cleveland on the road against a good team, no matter the points. Even with overtime, having Tyrod Taylor drop back to pass over 47 times with an undrafted rookie left tackle was simply ridiculous, and I wouldn't put it past Hue Jackson to have something similar in store for this week.
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| If James Conner could do that to Cleveland's defense, imagine what Alvin Kamara will do. |
These two teams were involved in the two spreads that most confused me, and now they get each other...with a reasonable line? I always hate laying this many points against Andrew Luck, but since he doesn’t appear to be 100% just yet, I’m okay with going up to a touchdown. Alex Smith looked extremely comfortable with his new team and is now at home against a swiss cheese defense, so he might just win someone the Millionaire Maker in DFS this week.
Packers -0.5 versus Vikings
It's not quite as simple as "If Aaron Rodgers plays, I think Green Bay will win," but if he has to sit out after that knee scare, I'm obviously changing my pick. As it stands, this sets up to be a #RevengeGame after Anthony Barr broke Rodgers' collarbone last year, and the revamped Packers defense showed signs of improvement to keep them in the game last week. Minnesota looked every bit like one of the best teams in the league, but carrying that over on the road will be a true early seasons test.
Jets -2.5 versus Dolphins
New York’s defense looked much better than I thought, especially the front seven, and Sam Darnold settled in after that ill-fated first play. Miami had a weird game with those weather delays and the kickoff return touchdowns for both teams, so I'm reserving judgement for now. If they win convincingly on the road, I'll buy that I was wrong about their roster, but for now, I'm comfortable sticking against them.
49ers -5.5 versus Lions
George Kittle dropping a possible 80 yard touchdown a play before a pick-six due to Kendrick Bourne running the wrong route was such a back breaker for San Francisco, and yet despite all of their miscues, they were still right there in what will probably end up being their toughest game of the year. Jimmy Garoppolo was by no means perfect in his first loss as a starter, but if those plays go the other way, Pierre Garcon holds onto a tough catch in the end zone, Alfred Morris doesn't fumble at the goal line, or the offensive line injuries don't put him under constant pressure, then the 49ers easily cover and possibly could have won that game. Now Detroit comes across the country on a short week after a dismal MNF performance, and their defense looks ready to be picked apart.
Cardinals +13.5 at Rams
It's looking like Arizona will be one of worst teams like I suspected, but I'm stunned to see this high of a spread already this season. Underdogs were 4-0 against the spread in divisional games last week, with all of the spreads being by more than a field goal, and while that 1.000% win percentage of course won't continue, I'm willing to say that the Cardinals can keep it somewhat competitive with LA coming off of a short week on the road.
Broncos -5.5 versus Raiders
Speaking of short weeks, LA's opponent on MNF now has to travel to Mile High after that collapse in Oakland. Denver's defense still looked pretty good last week, so Derek Carr could continue to be under scrutiny for his check down tendencies. Emmanuel Sanders looked back to his old self with increased usage in the slot, and that should bode well for the passing game in this matchup. The Raiders' lack of a pass rush will help, as well. If only they had a dominant edge player...oh wait.
Patriots -2.5 at Jaguars
New England possibly being limited in available running backs could hurt them in this tough game, but their game plan in the AFC Championship was for Tom Brady to pick apart this Jacksonville defense with a high volume of quick passes, anyway. Conversely, the Jags need Leonard Fournette to be healthy for their offense to operate effectively, so his status could have a large impact on whether they can compete. I like the Pats in either scenario, but his status is definitely something to watch.
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| Gronk missed most of the last matchup but is likely to keep doing Gronk things. |
Odell Beckham Jr. looked 100% back after missing most of last year, and although Dallas has done a nice job of limiting him after his breakout game against them as a rookie, new coach Pat Shurmur moving him around the formation is a welcome change to help spring him. He will be the best player on the field in this edition of yet another SNF game between these teams and could conceivably win the game by himself. Ezekiel Elliott could make a case for that claim, but the Cowboys offense is so bland that it might not matter even if he is. Until that changes to overcome their undermanned personnel, I'm picking against them.
Bears -3.5 versus Seahawks
Rookie coach Matt Nagy did seem to bring along a creative scheme with him from Kansas City, but he'll need to get it going consistently in order to close out games. The usage of their running backs seemed effective, and I like their chances of continuing to win on the ground at home against a Seattle defense that is depleted so much that they might start a linebacker who they just signed amid insider trading prosecution. Mychal Kendricks is a good player, but this is a tough ask for him right away. Meanwhile, Doug Baldwin is out with an MCL injury, so Russell Wilson could have a hard time getting the ball out quick under Khalil Mack's pressure without his go-to slot man.
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